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Posts Tagged ‘Washington DC’

2013/10/11: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities with Comments

October 11, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, October 11, 2013.

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EQUITIES

The TrendView Video from after Thursday’s US Close is exclusively on the December S&P 500 future, yet with discussion of the macro factors which drove today’s explosive rally blended in with technical trend evolution discussion in the opening section. There is also mention of the trend developments in the other equities from 07:25, govvies at 08:05, and foreign exchange commencing at 09:05, with brief return to the December S&P 500 future setup into the important weekly Close ideas at 10:30.

The freshly updated Current Rohr Technical Projections Key Levels & Select Comments are also available via the link in the right-hand sidebar.

 

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2013/10/07: Commentary: Load, Lock, Shoot Foot

October 7, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

COMMENTARY: Monday, October 7, 2013.

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 Load. Lock. Shoot Foot.

No vote in House for ‘clean’ Continuing Resolution.

Is this right? …well, ‘correct’ anyway. It’s definitely Right… as in Speaker Boehner’s crushing need to respect the wishes of the politically well-Right of center Republican Reps in the House.  And this came out in impressive fashion in Sunday’s political talk shows. Huffington Post’s article and many other sources dispute Boehner’s assertion that the votes would not be there in the House for a ‘clean’ Continuing Resolution (and by implication a clean Debt Ceiling hike… the far more critical horizon.)

And in fact, the entire overreach of first demanding a repeal and then shifting to a delay in Obamacare implementation was such a benighted tactic by the political Right, that it’s dimensions are hard to fathom for anyone but the most politically attuned. And as we have recently noted once again, most Americans are not that politically astute or engaged. And most foreigners simply consider a sign of (as we noted in a recent post) ‘political stupidity’ (thanks to the Financial Times’ John Authers for that one.)

As we pondered the extended damaged to what had been a recently resurgent Republican Party (until now), it just gets worse and worse. The Tea Party faction does indeed have some very good ideas for how to evolve a smaller, more efficient government. Yet the tactics of the party leaders they are pushing for results in Washington DC are burying whatever chance the Republicans may have had to achieve further electoral gains.

Which is why we view all of the sound and fury over the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) being bad law implementing bad policy is likely right in the final analysis. All the more reason the overly ardent, yet poorly thought, approach of the Tea Party’s allies in the House and Senate leadership is indeed a case of…

Load. Lock. Shoot Foot.

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2013/01/08: Cal-Perspective and US December strength to continue?

January 8, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This is a revised calendar with updated government bond auction details, so we suggest a read even if you saw yesterday’s edition. This week’s Summary Perspective is also now available there as well.

Yet there is also a continuing anomaly in the fundamental influences: relatively positive indications in quite a bit of the US economic data versus the additional headwinds which are so obviously going to impact the economy and markets into 2013. And one clear expression of that is in the important NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business) Small Business Confidence Survey that is very weak again this month after a disastrous November reading. The improvement to 88.00 from 87.50 masks some of the truly troubling aspects of this poll.

Still very negative after November plunge. Click to view Dunkelberg interview

Still very negative after November plunge. Click to view Dunkelberg interview

And we likely do not need to inform our readers that the Capital Spending indication is wholly inconsistent with the abysmal readings in the balance of the survey. Click on the table to see the CNBC video where Steve Leisman notes how minor this month’s improvement is compared to a November that was worse than 9/11 and almost as bad as the Lehman Brothers collapse response.

Dunkelberg was happy to share the small business owners’ primary reasons for such downbeat sentiment on the US economy and lack of any interest in hiring or expansion (in order of importance): Taxes, Weak Sales, Regulations. In other words, albeit with no mention of ‘protectionism’ this is a clear reflection of the continued drags from Taxulationism1.

1Taxulationism © 2010 Alan Rohrbach & Jack Bouroudjian. All rights reserved unless explicitly waived

Def.: Combined impact of taxation, regulation and protectionism to an oppressive degree as official policy

Yet there is even more reason to suspect the December economic indications are an anomaly on the way into weaker tendencies from a very well-informed source…

 

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2012/12/18: Cal-Perspective and S&P rip latest Fiscal Cliff whip into heavy holidays

December 18, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective is also now available. Yet there is also a continuing anomaly in the fundamental influences. And it is not just the weakish global economic data, but also the degree to which the equities are ignoring the potential to plunge off the Fiscal Cliff…

The odd part is the degree to which the press is reporting each new development as if it is a step closer to solution, which they are generally NOT. It is a matter of creative permutations of each sides positions being presented, yet…

 

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2012/12/11: Cal-Perspective and overall weakness in spite of some good data

December 11, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective is also now available. Yet there is also an interesting anomaly in the fundamental influences. And it is not just the strongish US economic data versus the trepidation over the potential plunge off the Fiscal Cliff… as that dilemma looks closer to being solved timely enough (end of year or top of January) to avoid its worst effects.

There is also the negative outlook for Europe. Today’s German and Euro-zone (essentially the same) ZEW Sentiment (i.e. the forward view) was stronger than expected. Yet, that flies in the face of other indications out of Europe that are still incredibly weak… like the recent Italian and Spanish Industrial Production numbers that came in below already weak estimates. And anyone who thinks Germany is going to return to being a bastion of strength in Europe should take a look at Monday morning’s admittedly mixed Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators (CLI).

The only real growth is in the US and (interestingly enough in light of recent official forecasts) the UK, with growth or even economic basing elsewhere problematic at best. Even more important is the degree to which Germany remains on a distinctly downward path into the early part of next year. The general tone of the OECD regarding the actual condition of CLI on individual countries is also typically charitable. How does France sliding further below 100 and remaining on a clear downward path indicate “weak growth”? And even though it is still marginally above 100, the same goes for Japan; especially in light of it just recently going back into recession.

And it appears that our continued concerns over US Taxulationism1 are finally beginning to bite. It is no longer just our theoretical assessment that these influences from a Nanny State run amok are a problem.

1Taxulationism © 2010 Alan Rohrbach & Jack Bouroudjian. All rights reserved unless explicitly waived

Def.: Combined impact of taxation, regulation and protectionism to an oppressive degree as official policy

There is now real-world confirmation from actual surveys of the impact this is going to have into the early part of next year. And that comes from none other than one of our favorite US employment-related resources

 

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2012/12/04: Cal-Perspective and US Age of Austerity finally here?

December 4, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective is also now available. Yet there is also an interesting anomaly in the fundamental influences. And it is not just the strongish US economic data versus the trepidation over the potential plunge off the Fiscal Cliff… there is also the negative outlook into next year.

The misguided perception in some quarters that the US election would settle enough ‘uncertainty’ to encourage an economic revival on the back of clearer parameters has now been completely dispelled. As noted in our post early last week, nothing could have been further from the truth, as the public pronouncements by highly partisan US political class leave little hope that there is common ground for constructive compromise. And with Mr. Obama’s reelection, we suspect he feels within his rights to push his agenda at the same time Conservatives find it as distasteful and counterproductive as ever.

It’s good old Nanny State Taxulationism1 finally run amok, as the President and his cohorts distract the opposition with outrageous proposals to waylay them from unwinding what’s already the law of the land.

1Taxulationism © 2010 Alan Rohrbach & Jack Bouroudjian. All rights reserved unless explicitly waived

Def.: Combined impact of taxation, regulation and protectionism to an oppressive degree as official policy

And while framing this as a US Age of Austerity might seem a bit harsh, it is something we have warned of since back in 2010 (well, a ‘Frugality’ mania in the first instance.) To revisit those major themes from a previous post, regardless of whether the Fiscal Cliff is addressed, the degree to which 2013 is going to be a tough year has not escaped the watchful eye of the best of the observers…

 

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2012/11/13: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar and Perspective: All as expected on equities choppy grind lower

November 13, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar along with the Weekly Summary Perspective are available through the links in the right hand column. The Perspective sums up what has been the anticipated reaction to last week’s re-election of the President. As we immediately noted when the election outcome became clear last Tuesday evening, it was the “worst case scenario.”

That is not a partisan statement intended to disparage the President. It was just that an ineffective highly, partisan split Congress with a President who got only the slightest majority of the popular vote was going to be problematic. That’s a prescription for a higher risk of actually heading over the Fiscal Cliff in January. At the very least, this is left us with a level of uncertainty that has created highly volatile, low liquidity markets. That was one of the main topics of discussion when I cohosted Jack Bouroudjian’s Jack B. Show today, extending into the still less than constructive influence out of Europe. Thanks to Jack for exploring all that.

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