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Posts Tagged ‘US Debt Ceiling’

2013/10/14: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income (after the US Close)

October 14, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Monday, October 14, 2013 (after the US Close).

131014_EQ_FIXED_1530EQUITIES & FIXED INCOME

The TrendView Video is from after today’s US Close, and we have chosen to add a view on the govvies due to their weakness today in the wake of the equities strength. The timeline of this Equities and Fixed Income video opens with the typical discussion of macro (i.e. politico-economic) factors and shift into a short-term trend view of the December S&P 500 future at 2:30, followed by the intermediate-term assessment at 05:10, govvies analysis beginning at 08:50, and a brief return to the December S&P 500 future from 12:20.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available via the right-hand sidebar link

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2013/10/14: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income, FX

October 14, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Monday, October 14, 2013.

131011_EQ_FIXED_WKNDEQUITIES & FIXED INCOME

While the TrendView Videos are from after Friday’s US Close, they remain very relevant for the trend decisions into early this week based on the influence of the US budget and Debt Ceiling impasse. The timeline of the Equities and Fixed Income video opens with the typical discussion of macro (i.e. politico-economic) factors and short-term and intermediate-term view of the December S&P 500 future, with the other equities from 07:40, with govvies analysis beginning at 11:30, and short money forwards from 14:30, with a brief return to the December S&P 500 future from 17:00.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available via the right-hand sidebar link

FOREIGN EXCHANGE Analysis and Outlook below.

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2013/10/11: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities with Comments

October 11, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, October 11, 2013.

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EQUITIES

The TrendView Video from after Thursday’s US Close is exclusively on the December S&P 500 future, yet with discussion of the macro factors which drove today’s explosive rally blended in with technical trend evolution discussion in the opening section. There is also mention of the trend developments in the other equities from 07:25, govvies at 08:05, and foreign exchange commencing at 09:05, with brief return to the December S&P 500 future setup into the important weekly Close ideas at 10:30.

The freshly updated Current Rohr Technical Projections Key Levels & Select Comments are also available via the link in the right-hand sidebar.

 

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2013/10/07: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities (after the US Close)

October 7, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: After Market Analysis for Monday, October 7, 2013.

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EQUITIES

The timeline of the video begins with a discussion of how the short-term US equities activity today was very consistent with the macro influences, especially as it relates to the US budget Continuing Resolution and Debt Ceiling dual impasse in Washington DC. And those short term influences and market responses are eerily similar to what transpired back in 2011. As we already covered that in last Thursday’s post (with additional comments on Tuesday and Friday), please refer to those for the extended discussion.

The video then moves into the actual December S&P 500 future trend and technical level analysis at 02:50, with other equities technical tendencies mentioned from 08:00, govvies beginning at 08:50, and foreign exchange from 09:30 with a brief return to the short term December S&P 500 future analysis at 11:35.

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2013/10/04: Commentary: Your Government at Work… or NOT!!

October 4, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

COMMENTARY: Friday, October 4, 2013.

CNBCemplRPTnotPEARSON-131004CNBC – Hampton Pearson with the September US Employment Report (which everyone knew was not going to be released due to the government shutdown) from the US Labor Department

And the number is… ??????? 

Can’t tell ya. Don’t know.

What a way to run a railroad. And here are the wizards in Congress at the switches again, hoping they can time the shift into continuing operations timely… as in before the US government train heads off the cliff again.

And as we noted yesterday, while we hope and expect Congress will find a way to pass not just a Continuing Resolution on spending but also the far more critical Debt Ceiling increase timely to avoid an October 17th US government default, with these folks you never know. And the ‘failure is not an option’ crowd is back out in full flower. But as we noted on Tuesday, they also held that view right up to the actual failure back in August 2011. So no real cause for comfort there.

The Current Rohr Technical ProjectionsKey Levels & Select Comments are also already available via the link in the right-hand column. [Please note we did not post a TrendView Video analysis from yesterday afternoon because it was obvious the S&P 500 and other markets were slipping into a quiet finish for the week. That is consistent with our Global analysis from yesterday morning. Our full Global analysis based on today’s Close will be available over the weekend.]

As a bonus today, there is more Commentary video on the degree to which the US budget gridlock can be readily solved if…

 

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2013/10/03: Commentary: Got that old ‘2011’ feeling back… and not just us!!

October 3, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

COMMENTARY: Thursday, October 3, 2013.

 CNBC-OBAMAharwoodINTVW-131002Crisis? What US government funding crisis?

Uh-Oh… even the Prez is allowing this one ain’t good!! We don’t agree with a lot of what the President has put in place (in fact we disagree with most of it.) Yet he was right to caution that markets are likely being too sanguine in the face of these unyielding positions on both sides.

You’d think from the way the markets are behaving there is no crisis looming in the US. This could be a major bit of cognitive dissonance brewing for the investor class (including more than a few ostensibly well-informed fund managers.) What we are witnessing is a short term disconnect that most folks expect will be readily corrected, yet which might carry more dire implications even across the short term.

While not wanting to play Cassandra, this all feels a lot more like July 2011 Redux than anything seen in any of the mini-crises since then.

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2013/10/01: Commentary: GOP paints itself into a corner… and worse

October 1, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

COMMENTARY: Tuesday, October 1, 2013.

130939-STEWARTshowSHUTDOWNeveWONKA

Daily Show – Jon Stewart and the ‘Wonka Message’ to the GOP’s right wing firebrands

Jon Stewart is well to the Left on the political spectrum. As such, we disagree with a lot of what he considers enlightened policy and politics. However, the shenanigans of the right wing of the Republican Party (and the leadership which has been coopted by it) have made Stewart and most Independent voters and even moderate Republicans/conservatives kindred spirits.

We have quite a bit more to say below on the many ways the GOP has looked bad and performed worse in the manner in which it handled the current budget confrontation the Democrats. The Stewart clip is worth watching for two aspects that resonate with many US voters. The first is his sense of exasperation… that is shared by everyone outside of the far right wing of the Republican Party. The second is Stewart’s naturally funny delivery on such an otherwise troubling topic.

After that we are going to launch into a vigorous dissection of the myriad ways in which the GOP leadership being seduced by the siren call of a government shutdown confrontation is totally counterproductive for a Republican Party that had shown some real gains right into Mr. Obama’s re-election last year. Really quite tragic for all the moderate conservatives out there.

 

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