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Posts Tagged ‘Tea Party’

2013/10/18: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income, FX

October 18, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, October 18, 2013 (As of Thursday’s US Close)

131017_EQ_FIXED_1530EQUITIES & FIXED INCOME

The TrendView Video is from after Thursday’s US Close. Yet it remains very relevant for the trend evolution in the various asset classes beyond the initial reactions to the critical resolution of the immediate budget and Debt Ceiling problems, as were fully reviewed in Thursday morning’s Global TrendView Video. We refer you back to that for a more extensive review of the trend tendencies that have indeed works out as expected through the balance of the day yesterday into this morning.

But for now, the timeline of the current video analysis is macro factors discussion until the December S&P 500 future at 01:40, mention of the foreign exchange at 04:10, December T-note future with mention of other govvies at 04:50, and a brief return to the key short-term factors for the December S&P 500 future at 06:25.

The Current Rohr Technical Projections Key Levels & Select Comments are available via the link in the right-hand sidebar.

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2013/10/17: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income, FX (early)

October 17, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, October 17, 2013 (Early Day)

131017_SPZ60_GLOBAL_0800

 

 

 

 

 

EQUITIES & FIXED INCOME

The TrendView Video is from prior to the US equities opening this morning and S&P 500 future Regular Trading Hours. Yet it remains very relevant for the trend evolution in the various asset classes beyond the initial reactions to the critical resolution of the immediate budget and Debt Ceiling problems in Washington DC yesterday evening. We will also be providing a Commentary post later today with multiple video clips from well-regarded sources that reinforce our view of why the markets have reacted as they have. We touch on those points in the macro factors discussion at the beginning of this video.   

But for now, the timeline of the Equities and Fixed Income portion of the video opens with that typical discussion of macro (i.e. politico-economic) factors shifting into discussion of the short-term and intermediate-term view of the December S&P 500 future at 03:15, with mention (no charts) of the other equities from 06:30, and the important govvies analysis beginning at 07:00. The foreign exchange timeline is noted below.

The Weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective is now available via the right-hand sidebar link

FOREIGN EXCHANGE timeline below.

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2013/10/16: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income, FX (early)

October 16, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, October 16, 2013 (Early Day)

131016_SPZ60_GLOBAL_0800EQUITIES & FIXED INCOME

While the TrendView Video is from prior to the US equities opening this morning and S&P 500 future Regular Trading Hours, they remain very relevant for the trend decisions into the critical Washington DC activity today. The timeline of the Equities and Fixed Income portion of the video opens with the typical discussion of macro (i.e. politico-economic) factors shifting into discussion of the short-term and intermediate-term view of the December S&P 500 future at 03:10, with the other equities from 08:15, with govvies analysis beginning at 10:30, and short money forwards from 14:35. The foreign exchange timeline is noted below.

The Weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective is now available via the right-hand sidebar link

FOREIGN EXCHANGE timeline below.

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2013/10/15: Commentary: Corker points to more collegial approach

October 15, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

COMMENTARY: Tuesday, October 15, 2013.

CNBC-CORKERsaysSENbillPASSlikely-131014earlyMore collegial?

…well we certainly hope so!

The current negotiations in Washington DC may actually be returning to sanity. That is after the insanity visited on the American people by the ideologues on both sides. As Senator Corker (R-TN) (one of the few successful businessmen in Congress) points out, the Republican overreach on attempted repeal of the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) has now yielded to a more reasonable focus on actual budget and spending issues. While there are still a couple of issues there that may be a bit of a rub, the basic desire on the part of cooler heads in the Republican Party to find a compromise is very apparent.

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2013/10/14: Commentary: The Howie Mandel administration?

October 14, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

COMMENTARY: Monday, October 14, 2013.

DONDmandelBRIEFCASE-131014Deal or No Deal?

…so what’s it going to be?

We’re sorry. We know the current negotiations in Washington DC are serious business, and will continue to affect the lives of ordinary Americans… and in a worst case scenario, possibly many far from our shores as well. No joking matter.

And yet, on one level the current state of the negotiations has gone from the ridiculous to the sublime… Democratic Party over reach to rival the previous Republican insanity. They are still asking the Republicans to restore government funding as a precursor to any real budget negotiations. In other words, much the same as the ‘secret briefcase’ prizes Howie Mandel would use on the US TV game show Deal or No Deal.

First they approve what the Democrats want, and then the Republicans get to find out what’s in the case. Just like on TV… trade away what you may have (can’t be sure what that is either) for some other unknown. Except the nature of the ‘secret briefcase’ the Dems are offering has changed into something not so secret…

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2013/10/11: Commentary: SURVEY says: GOP Total Poll Implosion

October 11, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

COMMENTARY: Friday, October 11, 2013.

 CNBC-POLLctrlCONGRESS-131011

That’s right… regardless of their ardent defense of hardball tactics to ostensibly ‘protect the American people from the ravages of Obamacare’, this was just dumb. Tying that effort to a budget negotiation was always going to backfire without control of both houses of Congress and for that matter the White House.

And what the CNBC video segment doesn’t tell you is that the overall popularity of the Republican Party has sunk to 24%… the lowest since those Wall Street Journal/NBC News polls began. As if the degree to which 50% of the American public is now against the repeal of the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) wasn’t enough (a real ‘boonerang effect’ from the Republican effort), the preference for who should run Congress has shifted to 47% Democrat versus 39% Republican!!

That’s the best reading for the Dems since the early 2009 new-President Obama ‘honeymoon’ period. It is all in stark contrast to the general sense of things a mere month ago, when the Dems were plagued with their serial scandal and mismanagement and foreign policy failure problems.

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2013/10/09: Commentary: NFIB still weak and ‘Shutdown vs. Miley’!!

October 9, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

COMMENTARY: Wednesday, October 9, 2013.

CNBC-NFIBdunkelbergOPTdown-131008 Holding steady is NOT success on the National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Survey. This was brought home in Tuesday morning’s CNBC discussion with respected NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg.

With business conditions declining by eight points and earnings trends down, there is only marginal evidence for any improvement in the components that of held up. When asked what he thought of all this, Dunkelberg was very clear on the cyclical disconnect. He noted, “Well, we’re still in the trading range so to speak. We haven’t been able to breakout of the 95 area (on the Small Business Confidence) Index…” (more from Dunkelberg and the ‘Shutdown vs. Miley’ observation below.)

The Weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective is available via the link in the right-hand sidebar.

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2013/10/07: Commentary: Load, Lock, Shoot Foot

October 7, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

COMMENTARY: Monday, October 7, 2013.

 ABCthisweekBOEHNERnotVOTEinHOUSE-131006

 Load. Lock. Shoot Foot.

No vote in House for ‘clean’ Continuing Resolution.

Is this right? …well, ‘correct’ anyway. It’s definitely Right… as in Speaker Boehner’s crushing need to respect the wishes of the politically well-Right of center Republican Reps in the House.  And this came out in impressive fashion in Sunday’s political talk shows. Huffington Post’s article and many other sources dispute Boehner’s assertion that the votes would not be there in the House for a ‘clean’ Continuing Resolution (and by implication a clean Debt Ceiling hike… the far more critical horizon.)

And in fact, the entire overreach of first demanding a repeal and then shifting to a delay in Obamacare implementation was such a benighted tactic by the political Right, that it’s dimensions are hard to fathom for anyone but the most politically attuned. And as we have recently noted once again, most Americans are not that politically astute or engaged. And most foreigners simply consider a sign of (as we noted in a recent post) ‘political stupidity’ (thanks to the Financial Times’ John Authers for that one.)

As we pondered the extended damaged to what had been a recently resurgent Republican Party (until now), it just gets worse and worse. The Tea Party faction does indeed have some very good ideas for how to evolve a smaller, more efficient government. Yet the tactics of the party leaders they are pushing for results in Washington DC are burying whatever chance the Republicans may have had to achieve further electoral gains.

Which is why we view all of the sound and fury over the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) being bad law implementing bad policy is likely right in the final analysis. All the more reason the overly ardent, yet poorly thought, approach of the Tea Party’s allies in the House and Senate leadership is indeed a case of…

Load. Lock. Shoot Foot.

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2013/10/03: Commentary: Got that old ‘2011’ feeling back… and not just us!!

October 3, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

COMMENTARY: Thursday, October 3, 2013.

 CNBC-OBAMAharwoodINTVW-131002Crisis? What US government funding crisis?

Uh-Oh… even the Prez is allowing this one ain’t good!! We don’t agree with a lot of what the President has put in place (in fact we disagree with most of it.) Yet he was right to caution that markets are likely being too sanguine in the face of these unyielding positions on both sides.

You’d think from the way the markets are behaving there is no crisis looming in the US. This could be a major bit of cognitive dissonance brewing for the investor class (including more than a few ostensibly well-informed fund managers.) What we are witnessing is a short term disconnect that most folks expect will be readily corrected, yet which might carry more dire implications even across the short term.

While not wanting to play Cassandra, this all feels a lot more like July 2011 Redux than anything seen in any of the mini-crises since then.

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