Archive

Posts Tagged ‘Spain’

2013/01/14: Calendar, OECD CLI, another great resource, Europe

January 14, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective will be added sometime soon. Yet, in addition to the calendar are two other resources which we feel you might find useful.

The first is this month’s Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), which they insist shows economic growth stabilizing in most economies. We can’t really disagree that was the case looking back to the upbeat factors we have already cited for late last year.

As noted previous, on the fundamental side there are reasons why the January statistical releases are going to be fairly upbeat in the US, and that will drive positive sentiment elsewhere. In fact, we still see the US influence as critical, with the news in Europe and some other areas not being nearly as strong. The US remains the key, and the headwinds there are going to intensify. We are going to have a full Taxulationismupdate very soon on that.

1Taxulationism © 2010 Alan Rohrbach & Jack Bouroudjian. All rights reserved unless explicitly waived

Def.: Combined impact of taxation, regulation and protectionism to an oppressive degree as official policy

But there is also another update from a source and a region that is highly influential. That is the latest edition of the Reserve Bank of Australia Chart Pack. That is the very simple name for a very robust set of economic indicators. Given the importance of the Asian and Australian economy, this is a great additional research resource.

While titled The Australian Economy and Financial Markets, it is actually a terrific, very current (updated through December 27th) global economic and finance graphical representation overview. And what it does have on Australia is an incredibly good sector and finance breakdown of many industries and finance functions for that important Asian natural resource economy.

And while the online version is very easy to navigate, it allows for the download of the full (34 page) PDF version as well. After all there are some lunatics (present writer proudly included) who want to be able to compare some fairly diverse factors in hard copy. It can be printed in a four-to-a-page easy review format, such as the example below comparing world share price trends…

Click on the graph to access the RBA Chart Pack home page

Click the graph to access RBA Chart Pack

It is no surprise that research generated by the RBA also includes extensive indications for Asia. And versus the passing view of China typical of so much European and US research, this means India and the Greater Asia economic sphere as well… including emerging markets.

Beyond that this is going to be another very big week, with an interesting twist on the confidence now helping the European markets…

 

Read more…

2012/10/18: Weekly Perspective into Equities signaled changing dynamic

October 18, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective is available through the link in the right hand column. The Technical Projections and Select Comments from last week are also available and still relevant… with the notable exception of the critical equities decision explored in the General Market Observations and EXTENDED TREND IMPLICATIONS below.

This is one of those weeks that saw equities benefit from the combined influence of the now well-established central-bank support along with somewhat better data. As it typically takes a couple of quarters for the central-bank actions to impact the various economies, it leads one to wonder whether the central bank actions were really all that necessary. However, in this case we must allow that the anticipation of worse things to come is enough of a psychological drag to justify at least some of the central-bank largesse. What is most interesting is not that the central bank and supra-national actions have created a ‘risk on’ psychology, but more so how little is being done about the underlying problems which caused the central banks to feel their massive involvement was necessary in the first place.

And those are apparent both in Europe and the US…  

Read more…

2012/10/03: Quick Post: Weekly Perspective available… intense early month decision

October 3, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Very short and sweet today, because all of the perspective is still much the same as our expectations last week that QE3 can give equities a boost, but is not actually very helpful for an ailing global economy. After equities spent all of last week in a more reactive mode on the downside, they are likely vulnerable unless the December S&P 500 future can push back above 1,450 area for the weekly Close.

Friday’s US Employment report will naturally be a major influence. Yet there have been quite a few interesting influences earlier this week, and others which remain prior to the US Jobs number on Friday. There was the surprise rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia yesterday morning. A link to their statement is available in the Weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective. It seems the last of the bullish central banks is finally acknowledging how weakness in Europe has fed greater than expected weakness in China and Asia in general.

Yet there is an even more telling influence in front of Friday’s US numbers…

 

Read more…

2012/10/01: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar available and QE influence still a factor

October 1, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. The Technical Projections and Select Comments from late last week are also available and still relevant. This week’s Summary Perspective on Key Influences will be posted later this evening, and we hope you find that useful as well.

As is typical of the first week of the month, it is going to be a heavy data week all week, and that began today with Global Manufacturing PMI’s. Continued disappointment with Asia (including Australia) and Europe was offset to a fairly interesting degree by the better-than-expected US ISM Manufacturing. However here as well, there was some bad news…

Read more…

2012/09/28: QE-Infinity ‘Pie in the Face’ metaphor

September 28, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The massive central bank QE-Infinity influence already seems to be waning just two weeks after ringleader Buzz Lightyear “To Infinity and Beyond” Bernanke inspired the latest asset price surge. While others either preceded (ECB) or quickly followed the Federal Reserve’s leadership in this area, there is little doubt that initiating the steps the FOMC took two weeks ago was easily the most extensive and extended (i.e. “…highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens…”) central bank commitment to massive liquidity expansion. That said, there is still the question of whether this will do much good with a broken ‘monetary policy transmission mechanism’ (i.e. the real root of economic weakness being in misguided fiscal and regulatory regimes.)

And beyond the sheer consideration that it may fail to influence the economy as expected, there are significant risks of not just that failure but of more general central bank authority dilution. That has been reviewed in this blog and our full research both previous and over the past two weeks. It includes the concerns of some very well respected regional Federal Reserve bank presidents and other economic observers, complaints from other countries this is nothing more than a protectionist, beggar-thy-neighbor ‘currency war’ strategy, and the degree to which (at least so far) the impact is as transitory as many of the skeptics had warned.

It seems that the anticipation of the Fed’s QE3 was much more influential than the actual fact. As we have noted recently, now that the central banks are ‘all in’ on this major liquidity expansion effort, the real risk is it may impugn their ability to effectively intervene in a future crisis. And that is where we draw the analogy with the old Pie in the Face comedy routine, which we will discuss below.

But first, review of another key factor is relevant: the degree to which the Fed becoming ‘the market’ in long-dated US bonds and agency debt is pernicious. Among the most consistent critics of the implementation of this policy has been Newedge Senior Director Larry McDonald. As he noted two weeks ago today (i.e. the day after the Fed QE3 announcement), “There’s a new hedge fund… and it’s the Fed.”

For quite a bit more on that and McDonald’s views on Spain, and that dysfunction in the mortgage securitization market and much else, click into the video clip of his appearance on the Fox business News ‘After the Bell’ show that Friday.  It seems that events since then have borne out his assessment.

And if the Fed is indeed nothing more than a new hedge fund in town…

 

Read more…

2012/09/26: Quick Post: Courtesy Brief Update: QE disdain and Spain create equities pain

September 26, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Short & Sweet again on the specific market comments in this post, because today’s TrendView Brief Update is a pointed discussion of the most important trend implications of the recent sharp criticism of quantitative easing efforts. Along with the tumultuous situation in Spain yesterday, the equities were no longer trusting that the central bank QE-phoria was enough to bolster the markets all on its own.

From a technical trend perspective there is the very sharp downward acceleration of the previously limited correction in the December S&P 500 future after the explosive, QE-driven rally earlier this month. In light of the positive balance in the economic data this week (especially out of the US), it is surely the loss of confidence in the effectiveness of quantitative easing efforts that explains the sudden reversal of the previously firm equities trend activity.

This gets back to the question we have posed on many occasions over the past two years

Read more…

2012/09/19: Quick Post: Weekly Perspective now available… Critical Horizon Thursday AGAIN!!

September 19, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Very short and sweet today, because a good deal of the perspective is still the same as our assessment in last Thursday’s post Fed Head Extends Anti-Dread Meds. QE3 may be quite a tonic for assets, but whether it encourages any real improvement in the US and global economy is another matter altogether.

Mr. Bernanke seems to have taken the bait from Senator Schumer that he needs to “get to work.” And along with his natural instincts (and possibly a bit of self-serving additional prominence for the Fed), he seems to have caved-in mightily to the sense that the Fed ‘do something’… whether or not it actually accomplishes anything in the real economy.

In fact, there was already an article on the front page of Monday’s Financial Times articulating the degree to which the backlog in mortgage processing by banks may mean there will not be any benefit to prospective home purchasers. And along with that there are not likely to be enough mortgage-backed securities (MBS) created to satisfy the QE3 buying program if it lasts for any length of time. And it is already creating market distortions.

That is also very consistent with the observation by Newedge Senior Director Larry McDonald, “There’s a new hedge fund… and it’s the Fed.” For quite a bit more on that and McDonald’s views on Spain and the dysfunction in the mortgage securitization market, and much else…

 

Read more…