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Posts Tagged ‘Sarkozy’

2012/06/29: Quick Post: Germany saves world… Maybe

June 29, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Short & Sweet on the specific market comments in this post, because today’s TrendView Brief Update was an extended discussion of the various price whipsaws back to psychologically important areas after the Euro-zone love fest into this morning. In fact, while a bit of that is follow-up on the other asset classes (i.e. outside of equities), the psychology and technical trend structure are also right back into the key US levels.

And as it relates to the key September S&P 500 future, the replay is almost exactly the same as the optimistic run-up into the FOMC meeting last week. It all seems consistent with market reactions to previous Euro-zone grand bargain announcements, and Yankees Manager and Malaprop Master Yogi Berra’s observation, “It’s like déjà vu all over again.”

Yet, as has been typical, the European moves raise as many questions as they address…

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2012/06/28: Quick Post: Ready for today’s potential ‘Rip-n-Dip’?

June 28, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Our only question is whether we actually get the ‘Rip’ (i.e. sharp short term rally), if it was built in on an anticipatory rally on Wednesday? Of course, there might still be a constructive knee-jerk reaction to the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) likely move to strike down the ‘individual mandate’ (forced purchase) portion of the Affordable Healthcare Act. However, there is a question of whether it is so broadly anticipated as to become a non-event?

That is all reinforced by the degree to which the European Summit does not seem to be yielding any constructive results. In fact, while the acrimony might be very cordial at this point, it seems to be escalating nonetheless. And that would be based upon actions by some of the participants that appear nothing less than counterproductive…

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2012/05/07: Quick Post: ALERT: Is US equities weakness a trend reversal?

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

[Current Calendar and Weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective to be updated later today.]

After initial negative equities reactions to the swing to the Left in Europe settled down, the stock markets are not doing too badly. Even in Europe (with the UK and Ireland Closed for a holiday today) the relative damage is modest. We need to allow that is in the context of European markets that have been trending down for the past month-and-a-half.

Considering how far June S&P 500 future has fallen since shortly after the ECB press conference last Thursday (when it was still in the mid-low 1,390s), it is still only back down to important support. As we had noted in the Rohr-Blog post that morning Weak data, France headed for Socialism, ECB against stimulus… “…fundamental drivers for the markets are possibly headed for another significant disconnect.” And June S&P 500 future foreshadowed that by closing on Thursday below the key 1,390.20 level.

 

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2012/05/03: Weak data, France headed for Socialism, ECB against stimulus…

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

It seems the fundamental drivers for the markets are possibly headed for another significant disconnect. Yet the markets are ignoring it for now. Possibly that is because whether there is a dislocation in Europe will not be completely clear until after Sunday’s French Presidential election and Greek Parliamentary elections. However, that does not lessen the degree to which the mindset of the European people (and some European governments), the economic data, and the current stance of the European Central Bank might be at odds.

This has become more apparent through the French Presidential debate allowing Monsieur Hollande to maintain his lead over President Sarkozy. It is of course still possible that the current French head of state will attract enough votes from the Far Right to defeat the challenger in Sunday’s poll. Yet, we must admit that the prospect of the Socialist victory in the presidential election is creating far less concern in the markets than we might’ve suspected from yesterday’s Showdown at French Election Corral.

The consistent weakness of the international economic data (now including US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index) is making Tuesday’s strong US ISM Manufacturing Index ever more the outlier in a weakening global economy (as we had already noted yesterday.) While there might be a surprise in tomorrow morning’s (holiday delayed) European Services Purchasing Managers’ Indices, any further confirmation of weakness there will set a very negative tone into the important US Employment report.

That is already somewhat suspect due to the weakness of yesterday’s ADP private employment figure and this morning’s Challenger Job Cuts pushing up once again. Whatever else we may see, the prospect of further weakness in economic data would seem to justify the “growth” versus austerity agenda of those on the Left. And yet, at today’s post-rate decision press conference ECB President Draghi seemed far more focused on reform rather than any further stimulus. And that is just the sort of thing that might leave the central bank on the opposite side of popular rejection of austerity…

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2012/05/02: Quick Post: ALERT: It’s only going to get wilder…

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Our Weekly Report & Event Calendar and focused comments in the Weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective on key influences anticipated all this from the top of the week. Hope you found that useful, as the fun has just begun.

Whatever has transpired so far is just like a good symphony: it is just the overture for what is coming next. And for any of you who might have failed to read that assessment of the key event horizons for the week…

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2012/04/25: Waitin’ on the Fed: Highlights and Headwinds… which will win out?

April 25, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The FOMC rate decision and statement, Fed staff and member forecast revisions, and Chairman Bernanke’s press conference are alleged to be a major driver for the markets later today. Forget about it. It’s going to be more of the same, even if it is a supportive factor. It will be no surprise of the net focus will be continued improvement in US growth, even if at a slower pace than the Fed would like. More blame and derision will likely be (rightfully) heaped on the ineffective US administration and Congressional response to the problems in employment and housing. That is ultimately linked to the uncertain business environment regarding taxes, regulation and a bit of protectionism: Taxulationism(1) still rules. Yet, after all that only one thing matters…

There is still a ‘Bernanke Put’ ready to be implemented if necessary. There will almost certainly be a lack of any overt commitment to further immediate QE (quantitative easing.) That will be a disappointment to the aggressive bulls who would like to see the Fed continue to juice the economy and equities market (along with other risk assets.) However, that famous a cappella group Benny and the Doves are still singing the same tune: the Fed is prepared to step in if conditions should deteriorate. Voilà… the ‘Bernanke Put.’

And in spite of those two highlights, further central bank support may indeed be necessary at some point. It was most interesting that the equities Closed lower last Thursday in spite of 18 out of 18 corporate earnings announcements beating estimates. That was due to the increasing headwinds that are appearing from many macroeconomic quarters…

(1) Taxulationism © 2010 Alan Rohrbach & Jack Bouroudjian. All international rights reserved unless explicitly waived

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2012/04/23: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar and Perspective Available

April 23, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is now available through the link in the right hand column. The focused comments below it are already available as well in the calendar section as the now regular weekly Summary Perspective on key influences. We hope you find that useful as well.

For those of you who have not already seen it, there is a lot of emphasis on Wednesday and Friday this week. However, as opposed to last week’s clear focus on Thursday’s 10 year Obligaciones (Spanish government bond) auction, this week has critical influence into and after Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision, statement and projections that are followed by Mr. Bernanke’s press conference. It is not a US Payrolls Friday this week, but the cumulative effect of the Friday economic releases are likely to be equally as influential…

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