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Posts Tagged ‘QE-Infinity’

2013/12/06: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income, FX (early)

December 6, 2013 Leave a comment

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2013/12/06: TrendView VIDEO: S&P, Govvies, FX (early))

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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, December 6, 2013 (early)

131204_SPZ60_GOV_ASIAFX-0700

S&P, Govvies, FX

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December 4, 2013 Leave a comment

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2013/12/04: TrendView VIDEO: S&P, Govvies, Asia FX (early))

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, December 4, 2013 (early)

131204_SPZ60_GOV_ASIAFX-0700

S&P, Govvies, Asia FX

We’ve MOVED!!! Come and see the video and a lot more at the NEW Rohr-Blog www.rohr-blog.com

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2013/12/03: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income, FX (early)

December 3, 2013 Leave a comment

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2013/12/03: TrendView VIDEO: Equities, Fixed Income, FX (early)

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, December 3, 2013 (early)

131202_SPZ60_GLOBAL_0715EQUITIES, Fixed Income, FX (early)

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2013/11/29: Commentary: Great Fedspectations or Just Speculations?

December 2, 2013 Leave a comment

Great Fedspectations or Just Speculations?

One more good reason the Fed won’t taper until March

…and it is something we would never have guessed!

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Commentary: Friday, November 29nd Weekend Read

CNBC-WARSHon YELLENtaper-131126earlyWe’ve MOVED!!! Come and see the video and a lot more at the NEW Rohr-Blog www.rohr-blog.com

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2013/11/22: Commentary: It’s the Fed PR, stupid

November 22, 2013 Leave a comment

It’s the Fed PR, stupid

Review of why the FOMC minutes are useless and there will be NO

QE taper until Janet Yellen’s first meeting as Chairman in March

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Commentary: Friday, November 22nd Weekend Read

CNBCliesmanFEDqeTAPERtalk-131121

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2013/11/15: Commentary: QE-Infinity III: The Silence of the Bernanke

November 15, 2013 Leave a comment

QE-Infinity III: The Silence of the Bernanke

Extended review of the immediate QE implications of the Fed Chairman transition

and extended implications for the fully ‘mature’ QE-Infinity program

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Commentary: Friday, November 15th Weekend Read

YELLENhearingCSPAN-131114

 

 

QE-Infinity III: The Silence of the Bernanke

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2012/09/28: QE-Infinity ‘Pie in the Face’ metaphor

September 28, 2012 Leave a comment

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The massive central bank QE-Infinity influence already seems to be waning just two weeks after ringleader Buzz Lightyear “To Infinity and Beyond” Bernanke inspired the latest asset price surge. While others either preceded (ECB) or quickly followed the Federal Reserve’s leadership in this area, there is little doubt that initiating the steps the FOMC took two weeks ago was easily the most extensive and extended (i.e. “…highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens…”) central bank commitment to massive liquidity expansion. That said, there is still the question of whether this will do much good with a broken ‘monetary policy transmission mechanism’ (i.e. the real root of economic weakness being in misguided fiscal and regulatory regimes.)

And beyond the sheer consideration that it may fail to influence the economy as expected, there are significant risks of not just that failure but of more general central bank authority dilution. That has been reviewed in this blog and our full research both previous and over the past two weeks. It includes the concerns of some very well respected regional Federal Reserve bank presidents and other economic observers, complaints from other countries this is nothing more than a protectionist, beggar-thy-neighbor ‘currency war’ strategy, and the degree to which (at least so far) the impact is as transitory as many of the skeptics had warned.

It seems that the anticipation of the Fed’s QE3 was much more influential than the actual fact. As we have noted recently, now that the central banks are ‘all in’ on this major liquidity expansion effort, the real risk is it may impugn their ability to effectively intervene in a future crisis. And that is where we draw the analogy with the old Pie in the Face comedy routine, which we will discuss below.

But first, review of another key factor is relevant: the degree to which the Fed becoming ‘the market’ in long-dated US bonds and agency debt is pernicious. Among the most consistent critics of the implementation of this policy has been Newedge Senior Director Larry McDonald. As he noted two weeks ago today (i.e. the day after the Fed QE3 announcement), “There’s a new hedge fund… and it’s the Fed.”

For quite a bit more on that and McDonald’s views on Spain, and that dysfunction in the mortgage securitization market and much else, click into the video clip of his appearance on the Fox business News ‘After the Bell’ show that Friday.  It seems that events since then have borne out his assessment.

And if the Fed is indeed nothing more than a new hedge fund in town…

 

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