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Posts Tagged ‘partisan’

2012/11/20: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar and Perspective: All as expected on equities rally from support

November 20, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar along with the Weekly Summary Perspective are available through the links in the right hand column. The Perspective sums up what has been the anticipated reaction to the more cooperative tone of US Fiscal Cliff negotiations convened by the President at the end of last week. As was easy to surmise, both sides of the otherwise highly partisan US Congress were interested in appearing more reasonable. And then the equities were allowed to assume the best as Congress pulled that great European summer holiday trick: they left town. It could just as easily have been August in Europe instead of Thanksgiving in the US.

That came along with somewhat better US data (especially housing) and funding for Greece, which was enough to bring in a very sharp equities relief rally yesterday.  That sent the December S&P 500 future gapping up from last week’s test of 1,350 area back up to the 1,387 Tolerance of the 1,400 area overall congestion. And that is how the “worst case scenario” ending up getting turned around into the sharp rally.

At least for now…

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2012/09/19: Quick Post: US solutions after election? NOT Likely!!

September 19, 2012 Leave a comment

 © 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Very Quick Post indeed after the notice of our Summary Perspective being available earlier today. Yet, it seemed important to share our perspective on some US political matters that impact the potential Fiscal Cliff. Substantially that is the degree to which there is much talk of, Nothing will happen until after the election.”

As we have noted previous, that carries with it the implication (or at least encourages people to draw the inference) that somehow after the election the highly partisan US Congress and Executive branch will find a way to heal their differences, and it will all be put in order. That’s quite a hostage to fortune.

And especially so in the context of one aspect that highlights the warped US political zeitgeist. The Financial Times was kind enough to publish my opinion on that today in the Letters section…

 

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2011/08/10: How We Got Here-IV: Welcome to the Island, Survivor (…we hope)

August 10, 2011 5 comments

Yep, it seems to have all turned into a big game of Survivor… And the two-way stretch from the stress factors is obvious. Getting through this is going to be a test of who can stand the huge amount of cognitive dissonance imposed from the outside. That includes the increasingly tedious and blindingly benighted machinations of the political class and alleged financial luminaries, and the radical, rabid dog reactions it foments in the markets.

It increasingly seems this is going to be a test of endurance, as Ben Bernanke was probably right to indicate that there won’t be much need to raise rates between now and mid-2013. In other words, after his previous soothing views on the economy and markets, the Fed head has thrown in the towel on expecting anything truly positive to develop in the intermediate term. And that’s not just us playing off his perceptions, as we have been great skeptics of the ability to return to an upbeat economic environment in spite of any improvement in equities and risk assets. And neither is it plain old bearish talk. Beyond the fiscal and debt ceiling dilemmas, there is good reason to believe it can’t get better this side of the next US general election.

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