Archive

Posts Tagged ‘Merkel’

2012/10/18: Weekly Perspective into Equities signaled changing dynamic

October 18, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective is available through the link in the right hand column. The Technical Projections and Select Comments from last week are also available and still relevant… with the notable exception of the critical equities decision explored in the General Market Observations and EXTENDED TREND IMPLICATIONS below.

This is one of those weeks that saw equities benefit from the combined influence of the now well-established central-bank support along with somewhat better data. As it typically takes a couple of quarters for the central-bank actions to impact the various economies, it leads one to wonder whether the central bank actions were really all that necessary. However, in this case we must allow that the anticipation of worse things to come is enough of a psychological drag to justify at least some of the central-bank largesse. What is most interesting is not that the central bank and supra-national actions have created a ‘risk on’ psychology, but more so how little is being done about the underlying problems which caused the central banks to feel their massive involvement was necessary in the first place.

And those are apparent both in Europe and the US…  

Read more…

Advertisements

2012/09/04: Quick Post: Weekly Perspective now available… HUGE European focus

September 4, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Very short and sweet today, because all of the perspective is still much the same as our expectations last week that Jackson Hole was going to be more style than substance. And Mr. Bernanke certainly confirmed all of our expectations that while the Fed may still ‘do something’, it will likely be less influential in the real economy than in the risk asset psychology. His defense of the previous rounds of quantitative easing (ostensibly QE1 and QE2) was eloquent, and might have even had some merit.

Yet even many of those who believed those efforts were necessary at much lower levels in the equity markets allow that further liquidity infusions might accomplish little more than a further escalation of commodity prices. And that would not even help equities very much. And in any event the greater risk or redemption likely rests with Europe now that the specifics of any rescue effort must soon be more clearly articulated.

That is exactly the sort of focus we have concentrated upon in this week’s Summary Perspective on key influences, available through the link in the right hand column. It joins yesterday’s Weekly Report & Event Calendar.

It still gives due credit to ECB President Draghi for the masterful “do whatever is necessary” to save the euro ‘spin’ he placed upon the late-summer phase of those negotiations.

And yet…

 

Read more…

2012/08/31: Quick Post: Courtesy Brief Update: To QE or not to QE?

August 31, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Short & Sweet again on the specific market comments in this post, because today’s TrendView Brief Update is a pointed discussion of some significant points in the quantitative easing debate. As we have noted in previous posts, we feel QE is the Opiate of the Perma-Bulls. We will have more for you on that soon.

However, in the meantime it would seem that whatever Mr. Bernanke has to say today must be respected as a potential short term influence on the markets. And that is in spite of the far greater influence that will likely come from the next steps (for better or worse) in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. And that reaches a truly critical horizon into the ECB press conference and meeting between German Chancellor Merkel and Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy… both of which are coincidentally (or not) next Thursday.

 

Read more…

2012/08/30: Quick Post: Pre-Jackson Hole Fresh Tech Now Available

August 30, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Technical Projections and Select Comments are already available via the link in the right hand column. The Summary Perspective on Key Influences and Weekly Reports & Events Calendar are also already posted, and we hope you find those useful as well.

Of course, the overriding (some would say ‘overbearing’) presence of the Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole Symposium tomorrow has kept the markets mostly on hold until today (Thursday.) It seems the equities are finally started to grasp the idea that Sugar Daddy Ben might not have any more candy to dispense as early as tomorrow. “We have steps we can take if conditions deteriorate” options are really not quite the same as the immediate sugar rush.

So while the “To QE or not to QE…” deliberation leaves quite a few folks with a strong feeling “that is the question”…

 

Read more…

2012/08/28: Quick Post: Back from holiday… Weekly Calendar Now Available

August 28, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Just back in today, and the Big Apple was a blast! I know a lot of Midwesterners find it a bit gritty and WAAAAAY too frenetic. Maybe it’s just because I’m a particularly high strung Midwesterner that I find its energy and attractions far outweigh the intensity and hustle. I suppose it’s a matter of taste, and that means a lot more than just the food. On balance it’s a great town.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective on Key Influences will also be available later today. All we can say is Europe’s latest round of ’Kick the Can’ still seems to be working very well.  For all we have our reservations about the extended viability of the US (and more recent European) equities rally, it is a wonder to behold. We offer our compliments to ECB President Draghi on the outstanding spin he attached to supportive comments on the euro at the end of last month in London.

As we noted last week, while clearly stating the European Central Bank will “do whatever is necessary” to save the euro, he quickly backed off at the following Thursday’s ECB press conference to make sure everyone also heard the caveat “within our mandate.” What a wonderful canard by which to flip the whole matter back to the political class regarding the nature of that ECB mandate. And by clarifying the political steps necessary to allow the ECB to act, he also left a much clearer path to potential resolution…

Read more…

2012/08/21: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar and Perspective Now Available

August 21, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column along with this week’s Summary Perspective on Key Influences. All we could say was ’Kick the Can’ seems to be working very well.  For all we have our reservations about the extended viability of the US (and now European) equities rally, it is a wonder to behold. We offer our compliments to ECB President Draghi on the outstanding spin he attached to supportive comments on the euro in London.

While clearly stating the European Central Bank will “do whatever is necessary” to save the euro, he quickly backed off at the following Thursday’s ECB press conference to make sure everyone also heard the caveat “within our mandate.” What a wonderful canard by which to flip the whole matter back to the political class regarding the nature of that ECB mandate. And by clarifying the political steps necessary to allow the ECB to act, he also left a much clearer path to potential resolution…

Read more…

2012/08/18: Quick Post: Weekend Reading on Continued Contentious Inconsistencies

August 18, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Equities seem like the Energizer Bunny of up trends right now… they just ‘keep going and going’, even if in a choppy and grinding manner some of the time. Yet, as we noted in the wake of Wednesday’s first September S&P 500 future daily Close above the 1,399-1,402 resistance, the burden of proof was on the bears to put the market back down or it was likely headed higher in the near term.

We will be very concise once again on the specific market comments in this post, because yesterday’s TrendView Brief Update  is a pointed discussion of the significant clash of forces between the equities market and other asset classes.  And a lot of the intermarket tendencies were just plain inconsistent with classical tendencies, and that became more so the case into late last week.

As we noted in our QE is the Opiate of the Perma-Bulls part 1a (part 2 to be provided soon) post a week ago Wednesday, it has been a “bad news is good news” equities market of late. And Perma-Bulls seem to feel the worse the better, at least insofar as that increases the chances for additional central bank Quantitative Easing or other forms of market intervention.

In a “rock and a hard place” psychology, that would be the ‘rock’ that underpins the market. And yet the ‘hard place’ that both investors and short-term portfolio managers find themselves in is the now almost pervasive weak economic data outside of the US. Even the stronger than expected UK Employment figures and Retail Sales this week along with US Retail Sales, Industrial Production, NAHB Housing Market Index, Michigan Sentiment, and Leading Indicators did not seem to help equities all that much in the face of weak data elsewhere.

And the other key aspect we keep a close eye on also reconfirmed those troubling global economic tendencies two weeks ago…

 

Read more…