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2013/09/27: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities

September 27, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: After Market for Thursday, September 26, 2013.

 130926_SPZ60_30VID_1530

 EQUITIES

The video timeline opens with some macro factor discussion, and continues with December S&P 500 future short-term view at 03:00 and intermediate term analysis from 04:50. The mention of the other equities, govvies and foreign exchange is from 07:20, with a brief return to the short-term December S&P 500 future from 09:10.

For anyone who has not already seen them, we suggest viewing Equities & Fixed Income as well as Foreign Exchange TrendView video analyses available in the blog from yesterday morning for a more extensive discussion of the various asset classes’ trend dynamics.  

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2013/09/24: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities (after Tuesday’s US Close)

September 24, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: After Market Analysis for Tuesday, September 24, 2013.

130924_SPZ_6030

EQUITIES

The video timeline begins as always with the S&P 500 future with mention of the other equities at 07:25, brief govvies note at 07:40, foreign exchange at 08:05 and a mention of macro factors at 09:00, returning for a brief review of the key short-term factors for the December S&P 500 future at 09:40. That last bit also includes a brief mention of the benighted US political/fiscal influence flowing out of Congress.

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2013/09/19: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities & Govvies

September 19, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: After Market Analysis for Thursday, September 19, 2013

We have received extensive constructive feedback on our Video Trend Analysis and Outlook.  And in response to a significant number of requests, we are going to be splitting our blog posts into ‘TrendView’ with Videos and text-based analyses on one hand, and Commentary on the other.

The sentiment is that the TrendView analysis should not take a back seat (i.e. follow) to the often extensive Commentary. We appreciate this direction from you, and have begun after today’s US Close with a TrendView Video and brief bit of text-based Analysis and Outlook. We look forward to your feedback, and hope you find this evening’s analysis useful.

SPZ_130919_6030

The video timeline opens as usual with S&P 500 future, and then the govvies analysis beginning at 06:45 with some important futures expiration observations, and a return to the S&P 500 future for a final key short-term consideration at 16:40. And that’s it for this analysis with further comments below. This is an important follow up to previous views on the sharp reactions to the surprise lack of QE tapering by the FOMC.

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2013/02/11: Calendar, OECD still mixed with US the key

February 11, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective will be added sometime soon. Yet, in addition to the calendar are two key areas of interest we want to cover today: What a significantly robust week it is on all fronts, and (in spite of what some may say about the possible self-sustaining potential of the Chinese and other Asian economies) the degree to which the US remains the key to the rest of the world’s further growth prospects.

That we have quite a bit of important midmonth economic data is a given. After a light data day today, those always include a range of global GDP figures (somewhat after the US release), US and UK Retail Sales, various Chinese data even though it is closed all week for the Lunar New Year. And first but not least of the truly global indications was the OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) Composite Leading Indicators (CLI.)

Still mixed... US holds the key

Still mixed… US holds key (click for full report.)

       Those still showed a very mixed picture that we interpreted to mean there is still quite a burden on the US to continue to lead any further global economic growth. More on that later. But for now, there are also extensive finance minister and central bank meetings this week beginning with Europe today and tomorrow and evolving into the G20 in Moscow Thursday and Friday.

And those are looking to be pretty contentious this time around.

 

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2013/01/29: Calendar, Finance Meets Professional Wrestling

January 29, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective will be added after the US Close today to allow for the influence of all of the (admittedly light) early week economic data prior to the late month data commencing tomorrow along with the FOMC announcement. Obviously that is followed by all of the first of the month data, which includes US Employment on Friday.

Yet, in addition to the calendar there are two key areas of interest we want to cover today: the final degeneration of the public image of finance (aided and abetted by the financial fourth estate), and the degree to which the equities’ technical psychology remains positive in spite of the March S&P 500 future setback from the 1,500 area.

First of all, there are the shenanigans surrounding Pershing Square Capital Management CEO Bill Ackman’s very public expressions of his bearish view of (and significant short position in) nutritional supplements company HerbalLife. And as most of you are likely already aware, that has led to a very public spat with previously aggressive activist investor turned corporate shepherd Carl Icahn. The highlight clip of that several day running confrontation is an interesting, if somewhat depressing, bit of viewing.

Ackman/Icahn Spat Highlights

Click for Ackman/Icahn Audio-Visual Highlights

Much more of the story beyond the clip highlights (including the back story on the sour relationship) is available online via Business Insider.   And just to show it is not just CNBC self-promotion when they say it, the BI article title also refers to it as The Greatest Moment in Financial TV History. More like one of the most depressing displays of excessive ego and opinion. (That said, the BI article is a bit of a good giggle.)

And it leaves an already suffering financial services and investment industry (especially the ‘active funds management’ sector after the past couple of years) with another hit to its public image. Strong expressions of opinions on individual investments and entire sectors are to be expected from high-profile fund managers. But what transpired last week seems beyond the pale.

It sounded a lot more like the kind of confrontation we recall from our misspent youth watching professional wrestling interviews on television…

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2013/01/24: Technicals and Best Davos Insight

January 24, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

A fresh set of Technical Projections and Select Comments are already available via the link in the right hand column, current through Wednesday’s US Close. And those are now very relevant to the near term price activity in equities that are done standing still since the end of last week. Other asset classes that have also had some reasonably strong swings.

More on that below. Yet the most interesting public insight (versus any backroom conspiracies) to come out of the World Forum in Davos, Switzerland was the CNBC interview of Bridgewater Associates’ head Ray Dalio. While he revisits quite a few topics he has expounded upon previous, his review of his general approach to ‘the machine’ (which he considers the best analysis approach to both the economy and the markets) is a always a pleasure to hear…   

CNBCdavosDALIOclip-130124…and a reminder of why he is one of the most successful fund managers in history. In fact, that interview is split into two parts. The first is Dalio’s Perspective on Deleveraging, followed by Dalio on Policy & Productivity. The first part is very explicit on the importance of the various aspects and approaches to the current major deleveraging cycle. There are also discussions of how the central banks are affecting markets and economies, and a reminder that trading is a zero sum game.

 

The second section relates it all back to the current economic conditions, and even ends with a very brief individual country review. Enjoy the view. In the meantime, even though the markets took some interesting swings today, we feel the basic themes of stronger equities, challenged govvies and highly varied foreign exchange remain in place.

 

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2013/01/23: Quick Post: The Great Dissembler triumphs again

January 23, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Calendar has also been available since yesterday. And the continuing contradiction remains between fundamental influences that remain weaker than expected in some cases yet with technical trend activity which remains quite firm.

However, that is not such a huge surprise since the March S&P 500 future pulled off the ‘jailbreak’ above 1,474.50 last Friday (i.e. also a weekly Close) we had been discussing as a potential over the past several weeks. With a range of key technical indications (i.e. one of our classical ‘confluences’) pointing to next significant psychological and technical resistances not until 1,510 and 1,526, it is normal for the market to shrug off negative news until it gets closer to those levels.

After that, some of the problems which the equities are so happy to blithely ignore at present may come back to haunt the developed economies in spite of the generally upbeat psychology at present. And in our humble view, one manifestation of the sorts of problems that might well represent a real economic and market headwind came out of a less than obvious source: Secretary of State Clinton’s illness-delayed appearance before the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

It was obviously less of any sort of direct economic or market influence, and more so a clear indication of the utter inability of most folks in the US Congress, even the ostensibly very smart ones, to follow up on a line of reasoning. And there was one particularly interesting exchange and aftermath.

That was Mrs. Clinton’s emotional outburst in response to Senator Ron Johnson (one of those really smart folks in Congress) pointedly questioning her on the degree to which the Administration clung to its lame (and completely unsupported) claim that the Benghazi attack sprung spontaneously from a previously orderly demonstration. Just for the record (and edification of anyone who just came out of a several month coma), there was no evidence whatsoever of any demonstration at all prior to a very well-coordinated attack on the US facility.

That is in no way intended as a partisan criticism. As it is eminently clear that no additional critical information of any sort came out of this important hearing, there is plenty of failure on both sides that informs an even more depressing view than any failure to get to the truth behind the Administration’s disinformation policy how’s and why’s: neither side of the US political divide is capable of critical pursuit of information, as they are all much more interested in spouting sound bite fodder for their next set of election campaign ads… or so it seems.  

Hiilary's Hardline Hissy-fit

Hillary’s Hardline Hissy-fit

Mrs. Clinton’s fit of pique with Senator Johnson’s pointed discussion and inquiry is a wonderful case in point. As you hear her respond that it really doesn’t make a difference whether the attack sprung from a demonstration or “…guys out for a walk one night who decided they’d go kill some Americans…”, keep one thing in mind: Nobody ever asserted that latter was the case. And in taking that line, one of the Great Dissemblers (right along with husband Bill) of US and likely global politics won the day.

And for anyone who is unfamiliar with the term ‘dissemble’ it means, “To disguise or conceal behind a false appearance, or alternatively to make a false show.” Well, it seems we have a wonderful example of both here.

 

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