Archive

Posts Tagged ‘Japanese yen’

2013/09/24: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities (after Tuesday’s US Close)

September 24, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: After Market Analysis for Tuesday, September 24, 2013.

130924_SPZ_6030

EQUITIES

The video timeline begins as always with the S&P 500 future with mention of the other equities at 07:25, brief govvies note at 07:40, foreign exchange at 08:05 and a mention of macro factors at 09:00, returning for a brief review of the key short-term factors for the December S&P 500 future at 09:40. That last bit also includes a brief mention of the benighted US political/fiscal influence flowing out of Congress.

Read more…

Advertisements

2013/09/19: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities & Govvies

September 19, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: After Market Analysis for Thursday, September 19, 2013

We have received extensive constructive feedback on our Video Trend Analysis and Outlook.  And in response to a significant number of requests, we are going to be splitting our blog posts into ‘TrendView’ with Videos and text-based analyses on one hand, and Commentary on the other.

The sentiment is that the TrendView analysis should not take a back seat (i.e. follow) to the often extensive Commentary. We appreciate this direction from you, and have begun after today’s US Close with a TrendView Video and brief bit of text-based Analysis and Outlook. We look forward to your feedback, and hope you find this evening’s analysis useful.

SPZ_130919_6030

The video timeline opens as usual with S&P 500 future, and then the govvies analysis beginning at 06:45 with some important futures expiration observations, and a return to the S&P 500 future for a final key short-term consideration at 16:40. And that’s it for this analysis with further comments below. This is an important follow up to previous views on the sharp reactions to the surprise lack of QE tapering by the FOMC.

Read more…

2013/01/16: Technicals and Taxulationism (an update)

January 16, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

A fresh set of Technical Projections and Select Comments are already available via the link in the right hand column, current through Tuesday’s US Close. And those are now very relevant to the near term price activity in equities that are standing still for the most part and other asset classes that have had some reasonably strong swings.

More on that below. Yet the becalmed nature of the equities trade is fairly ironic in light of the degree to which equities are sometimes an indication for economic expectations. And in turn, those drive psychologies of other asset classes. Yet, right now the sometimes sharp swings in other asset classes are in sharp contrast to the equities lack of activity.

And it’s not like the tail is ‘wagging the dog’, as the dog is catatonic. Equities sitting still cannot likely last that much longer. Yet right now the standoff between positive QE, corporate earnings and upbeat chatter of ‘multiple expansion’ on renewed confidence are countered by all the global economic growth downgrades (Germany, World Bank, IMF previous, etal.), weak data (Europe in particular), and US Taxulationism1.

1Taxulationism © 2010 Alan Rohrbach & Jack Bouroudjian. All rights reserved unless explicitly waived

And that gets us right into the update on how pernicious that just might be. Yes, we know, and have been duly respectful of how those sorts of things only have an impact across time. Which is exactly why we have been so circumspect on the potential for equities develop weakness early this year; and have been very pointed about not getting too bearish in early-mid January.

However, the final piece is now in place. Taxulationism is the term Jack Bouroudjian and I coined some time ago regarding how far the US has moved away from the free market principles, and especially the insights on optimal taxation levels developed by Dr. Arthur Laffer (as in the ‘Laffer Curve’.)  

Taxation is back with a vengeance, even on the middle class (more on that shortly.) Aggressive regulation that was held in abeyance into the US election is back with a vengeance. And the protectionism which is the ‘ism’ on the back end of Taxulationism is now here as well, completing the circle. How? Exchange rate changes have reached the point where they are predatory.

But FIRST… Taxation…

Click on illustration to watch CNBC video

Click on illustration to watch CNBC video

As CNBC’s Eamon Javers points out in the video (click on the graphic to watch), after all the rhetoric about raising taxes on “millionaires and billionaires” to protect the middle class… the middle class takes the hit.

 

Read more…

2012/11/20: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar and Perspective: All as expected on equities rally from support

November 20, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar along with the Weekly Summary Perspective are available through the links in the right hand column. The Perspective sums up what has been the anticipated reaction to the more cooperative tone of US Fiscal Cliff negotiations convened by the President at the end of last week. As was easy to surmise, both sides of the otherwise highly partisan US Congress were interested in appearing more reasonable. And then the equities were allowed to assume the best as Congress pulled that great European summer holiday trick: they left town. It could just as easily have been August in Europe instead of Thanksgiving in the US.

That came along with somewhat better US data (especially housing) and funding for Greece, which was enough to bring in a very sharp equities relief rally yesterday.  That sent the December S&P 500 future gapping up from last week’s test of 1,350 area back up to the 1,387 Tolerance of the 1,400 area overall congestion. And that is how the “worst case scenario” ending up getting turned around into the sharp rally.

At least for now…

Read more…

2012/05/18: Courtesy ‘Brief Update’ and Correction on FT link

May 18, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Short & Sweet on the specific market comments in this post, because today’s TrendView Brief Update was an extended discussion of the various price trend at a psychologically important juncture after the recent market ‘disconnect’. In fact, quite a bit of that is follow-up on the other asset classes (i.e. outside of equities) psychology and technical trend structure after the extensive background in yesterday’s post.

And that includes an important correction for a link in yesterday’s post. After our glowing reference for James Mackintosh’s coverage of the weakness in Gold reflecting some broader tendencies we had been anticipating for some time, the link provided for the online version of his Short View column was incorrect. That has now been addressed, and we still encourage even those who had read the post to revisit the link into the video embedded in the online version of his assessment. Apologies for the error and any duplication of effort, but the video is well worth viewing.

And the technical aspect of the evolution of the ‘macro-technical’ perspective is still very important with such fraught fundamental tendencies still affecting the markets. After all of the background factor assessment yesterday, we cover some very interesting specific technical aspects in today’s Brief Update…

 

Read more…

2012/03/27: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar and Perspective Now Available

March 27, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The full calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. The focused comments below it will be available in the calendar section shortly after the weekly calendar is posted each week as Summary Perspective on Key Influences. We hope you find that useful as well.

It’s another critical mid-to-late week decision horizon this week again. Not to say that there are no important influences early in the week. We have already seen Mr. Bernanke’s expected reaffirmation of endless liquidity provision bolster the equities and weigh on the primary government bond markets.

And there is no small amount of additional central bank-speak during the balance of the week; most heavily concentrated into Tuesday and Thursday. That goes right along a goodly number of important central bank reports and finance ministers meetings, especially the European meetings from early Friday morning.

Read more…

2011/09/18: Weekend Thought: During His Jim Cramer Interview, Secretary Geithner Spilled the Beans

September 18, 2011 2 comments

Quite a bit of softball questioning, and others that were leading insofar as they allowed Treasury Secretary Geithner to promote the administration’s renewed stimulus agenda. Nothing necessarily wrong with that; high-level political interviews are after all the art of the trade-off.

However, some of the questions were so generalist as to be meaningless. “Europe alive or dead in three years?” We presume Mr. Cramer meant “the Euro-zone”. And of course the correct answer is “absolutely“, without having to qualify in what form. While they agreed that would include saving Greece within the zone, we are not so sure (and will have more to say on that sometime soon.)

And one of the most telling insights from the interview came in response to one of those seemingly softball questions regarding why the administration’s new jobs initiative must be passed to avoid crippling economic weakness. It was less about the specific benefits or costs of the program, and more so about an aspect of the general economic context that very few have been willing to explore.

Read more…