Posts Tagged ‘Italy’

2013/10/03: Commentary: Got that old ‘2011’ feeling back… and not just us!!

October 3, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

COMMENTARY: Thursday, October 3, 2013.

 CNBC-OBAMAharwoodINTVW-131002Crisis? What US government funding crisis?

Uh-Oh… even the Prez is allowing this one ain’t good!! We don’t agree with a lot of what the President has put in place (in fact we disagree with most of it.) Yet he was right to caution that markets are likely being too sanguine in the face of these unyielding positions on both sides.

You’d think from the way the markets are behaving there is no crisis looming in the US. This could be a major bit of cognitive dissonance brewing for the investor class (including more than a few ostensibly well-informed fund managers.) What we are witnessing is a short term disconnect that most folks expect will be readily corrected, yet which might carry more dire implications even across the short term.

While not wanting to play Cassandra, this all feels a lot more like July 2011 Redux than anything seen in any of the mini-crises since then.

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2012/08/21: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar and Perspective Now Available

August 21, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column along with this week’s Summary Perspective on Key Influences. All we could say was ’Kick the Can’ seems to be working very well.  For all we have our reservations about the extended viability of the US (and now European) equities rally, it is a wonder to behold. We offer our compliments to ECB President Draghi on the outstanding spin he attached to supportive comments on the euro in London.

While clearly stating the European Central Bank will “do whatever is necessary” to save the euro, he quickly backed off at the following Thursday’s ECB press conference to make sure everyone also heard the caveat “within our mandate.” What a wonderful canard by which to flip the whole matter back to the political class regarding the nature of that ECB mandate. And by clarifying the political steps necessary to allow the ECB to act, he also left a much clearer path to potential resolution…

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2012/08/07: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar and Perspective Now Available

August 7, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column along with this week’s Summary Perspective on Key Influences. Even as we remain a bit skeptical of the extended rally, it must be allowed that the better sentiment from the extended implication of ECB President Draghi’s press conference can push equities higher in the near-term.

That much was apparent by Friday morning, so it is no surprise that the positive equities influences have the upper hand for now. And as we noted on Friday, that means the primary government bond markets and US dollar were going to suffer as their ‘haven’ bid tendencies were reversed in the face of the sustained near-term equities strength.

And with a relatively light reporting calendar early this week, the factors that might discourage equities once again can only appear from Wednesday into Thursday based upon two aspects…

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2011/11/14: Quick Post: Weekly Reports & Events Calendar Now Available

November 14, 2011 Leave a comment

© 2011 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The full calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This is such a robust week once again, it is impossible to include anything but a fraction of the major influences in an overview. Yet, a few key aspects stand out among the other important reports and events.

In addition to the continued sharp influences from the attempts to address the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, there is also going to be quite an impact from important scheduled reports, communication from central banks and bankers, and government debt auctions.

The latter are very prominent this Thursday, as we see offerings from Europe as well as a US 10-year TIPS auction. Along with Tuesday it is the most intense event horizon this week. However, even though today is nominally a bit lighter than those heavy midweek influences, the nature of four key aspects today make it fairly critical. Consistent with continued concerns about the European situation, there is an Italian BTP auction that should be very interesting…

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2011/11/09: Quick Post: Opera Berlusconi Continues… With Equities in Thrall, Yet Not Necessarily Bad

November 9, 2011 Leave a comment

© 2011 ROHR International, Inc. All international rights reserved.

Opera Berlusconi has finally seen the fall of the ebullient Prime Minister. If not for his policies and management of the state, he will at least be remembered for the excitement he provided. Of course, that includes the degree to which his shenanigans pointed out the ineffectiveness of leadership in the profligate southern European sisters, and even Europe as a whole.

It was the sort of demonstration of narrow partisan domestic focus that ultimately belied the myth of there being a cohesive Euro-zone even more so than the riots in the streets in Greece. Italy is just that much larger, ostensibly competitive on an industrial basis, and potentially capable of the right sort of fiscal balance if only the political will were effectively exerted. And yet, the other aspect which is clear even from Italian domestic politics is that it also suffers from its own North/South divide. In that sense, it is the fractal miniature example of why Europe cannot really be a monetary union without becoming a fiscal and political one as well; and that’s not happening.

As just a brief early word on two primary asset classes’ price activity, on current form it seems the government bond markets had it right by rallying on the weak economic news and disturbing developments in Europe. That was in spite of the strength of equities, which can be an anticipatory bid during earnings season and then weaken once things revert to normal. However, in this case they seem to have also been defying the crushing logic of the fact that Europeans who had been so adept at kicking the can down the road, well, finally seem to be running out of road.

Italian 10-year government bond yields shooting up above 7.00% in spite of Mr. Berlusconi’s resignation (at least seemingly so for now) came as somewhat of a surprise to casual observers. We are not sure why they would be so shocked by that, as an spite of his obvious weaknesses and problems Mr. Berlusconi was at least a strong leader up until the recent extreme loss of confidence in him. What we do know is that the market is exhibiting a rational reaction to the fact that no one else in Italy is considered much better, or much more likely to generate support for the necessary budget adjustments.

This would seem to be a classic example of “be careful what you wish for.”

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2011/10/24: Quick Post: Enjoying the Equities Rally? Go Hug a Commie

October 24, 2011 2 comments

That’s right. There is a debt of gratitude due a select subset of the ostensibly anti-capitalist extreme wing of the global labor moment. It has to do with last week’s passage of the most recent in a series of Greek austerity package. While the current Franco-German negotiations on the broader European Debt Crisis rescue plan is now critical later this week (more on that below), none of it could have proceeded without the further Greek austerity measures.

And last week’s approval by the Greek Parliament was a distinctly fraught affair. For one thing, the vote inside the parliament building was an extremely close run thing. It required the dismissal and replacement of one deputy in order in the coalition to secure a majority vote. Dodgy parliamentary practice it best, but it worked.

The more visible and overt battle was outside the parliament building, where mostly peaceful protesters signaled their disgust Greece was basically being blackmailed into submission by the more successful Euro-zone states. Whatever one’s view on that, the even more troubling battle was the overt physical fighting between two key factions.

Was it the Liberals versus the Conservatives? Nope. How about the Socialists versus the Capitalists? Not that either. And what we are talking about here is folks who were actually aggressively attacking each other with projectiles, and even smashing each other with clubs.

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