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Posts Tagged ‘IMF’

2012/11/13: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar and Perspective: All as expected on equities choppy grind lower

November 13, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar along with the Weekly Summary Perspective are available through the links in the right hand column. The Perspective sums up what has been the anticipated reaction to last week’s re-election of the President. As we immediately noted when the election outcome became clear last Tuesday evening, it was the “worst case scenario.”

That is not a partisan statement intended to disparage the President. It was just that an ineffective highly, partisan split Congress with a President who got only the slightest majority of the popular vote was going to be problematic. That’s a prescription for a higher risk of actually heading over the Fiscal Cliff in January. At the very least, this is left us with a level of uncertainty that has created highly volatile, low liquidity markets. That was one of the main topics of discussion when I cohosted Jack Bouroudjian’s Jack B. Show today, extending into the still less than constructive influence out of Europe. Thanks to Jack for exploring all that.

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2012/10/23: Quick Post: Courtesy Market Alert: Probably NOT Equities Big Bust …Just Yet

October 23, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Short & Sweet again on the specific market comments in this post, because today’s TrendView Market Alert is a pointed discussion of the most critical short-term technical area NOT being the (now violated) December S&P 500 future 1,430-20 range. In other words, there are lower supports which are more important… like the 1,400 area and its Tolerance in the 1,389-87 range, which was held on minor reactions when the market was on the way up into August and early September. It was also the heavier congestion on the way up into a temporary top in March-April. 

 

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2011/12/02: Quick Post: Courtesy Access to Rohr Report Brief Update Today

December 2, 2011 Leave a comment

© 2011 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Short & Sweet. We are sure that the December S&P 500 future decision on whether to remain above 1,250 for the weekly Close will be a key indication for equities, even if other asset classes are skeptical on overall resolution of European problems and global economy.

As we have been tied up with some email problems this morning. please access the current view through this courtesy look at today’s Rohr Report TrendView BRIEF UPDATE institutional edition as the best way to ensure you have what you need.

This is a summary form of the background and specific technical contingencies that are still consistent with Wednesday’s post.

We hope you find it useful, and wish everyone a good weekend.

2011/11/09: Quick Post: Opera Berlusconi Continues… With Equities in Thrall, Yet Not Necessarily Bad

November 9, 2011 Leave a comment

© 2011 ROHR International, Inc. All international rights reserved.

Opera Berlusconi has finally seen the fall of the ebullient Prime Minister. If not for his policies and management of the state, he will at least be remembered for the excitement he provided. Of course, that includes the degree to which his shenanigans pointed out the ineffectiveness of leadership in the profligate southern European sisters, and even Europe as a whole.

It was the sort of demonstration of narrow partisan domestic focus that ultimately belied the myth of there being a cohesive Euro-zone even more so than the riots in the streets in Greece. Italy is just that much larger, ostensibly competitive on an industrial basis, and potentially capable of the right sort of fiscal balance if only the political will were effectively exerted. And yet, the other aspect which is clear even from Italian domestic politics is that it also suffers from its own North/South divide. In that sense, it is the fractal miniature example of why Europe cannot really be a monetary union without becoming a fiscal and political one as well; and that’s not happening.

As just a brief early word on two primary asset classes’ price activity, on current form it seems the government bond markets had it right by rallying on the weak economic news and disturbing developments in Europe. That was in spite of the strength of equities, which can be an anticipatory bid during earnings season and then weaken once things revert to normal. However, in this case they seem to have also been defying the crushing logic of the fact that Europeans who had been so adept at kicking the can down the road, well, finally seem to be running out of road.

Italian 10-year government bond yields shooting up above 7.00% in spite of Mr. Berlusconi’s resignation (at least seemingly so for now) came as somewhat of a surprise to casual observers. We are not sure why they would be so shocked by that, as an spite of his obvious weaknesses and problems Mr. Berlusconi was at least a strong leader up until the recent extreme loss of confidence in him. What we do know is that the market is exhibiting a rational reaction to the fact that no one else in Italy is considered much better, or much more likely to generate support for the necessary budget adjustments.

This would seem to be a classic example of “be careful what you wish for.”

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2011/10/24: Quick Post: Enjoying the Equities Rally? Go Hug a Commie

October 24, 2011 2 comments

That’s right. There is a debt of gratitude due a select subset of the ostensibly anti-capitalist extreme wing of the global labor moment. It has to do with last week’s passage of the most recent in a series of Greek austerity package. While the current Franco-German negotiations on the broader European Debt Crisis rescue plan is now critical later this week (more on that below), none of it could have proceeded without the further Greek austerity measures.

And last week’s approval by the Greek Parliament was a distinctly fraught affair. For one thing, the vote inside the parliament building was an extremely close run thing. It required the dismissal and replacement of one deputy in order in the coalition to secure a majority vote. Dodgy parliamentary practice it best, but it worked.

The more visible and overt battle was outside the parliament building, where mostly peaceful protesters signaled their disgust Greece was basically being blackmailed into submission by the more successful Euro-zone states. Whatever one’s view on that, the even more troubling battle was the overt physical fighting between two key factions.

Was it the Liberals versus the Conservatives? Nope. How about the Socialists versus the Capitalists? Not that either. And what we are talking about here is folks who were actually aggressively attacking each other with projectiles, and even smashing each other with clubs.

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