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Posts Tagged ‘Fiscal Cliff’

2013/02/11: Calendar, OECD still mixed with US the key

February 11, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective will be added sometime soon. Yet, in addition to the calendar are two key areas of interest we want to cover today: What a significantly robust week it is on all fronts, and (in spite of what some may say about the possible self-sustaining potential of the Chinese and other Asian economies) the degree to which the US remains the key to the rest of the world’s further growth prospects.

That we have quite a bit of important midmonth economic data is a given. After a light data day today, those always include a range of global GDP figures (somewhat after the US release), US and UK Retail Sales, various Chinese data even though it is closed all week for the Lunar New Year. And first but not least of the truly global indications was the OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) Composite Leading Indicators (CLI.)

Still mixed... US holds the key

Still mixed… US holds key (click for full report.)

       Those still showed a very mixed picture that we interpreted to mean there is still quite a burden on the US to continue to lead any further global economic growth. More on that later. But for now, there are also extensive finance minister and central bank meetings this week beginning with Europe today and tomorrow and evolving into the G20 in Moscow Thursday and Friday.

And those are looking to be pretty contentious this time around.

 

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2013/01/08: Cal-Perspective and US December strength to continue?

January 8, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This is a revised calendar with updated government bond auction details, so we suggest a read even if you saw yesterday’s edition. This week’s Summary Perspective is also now available there as well.

Yet there is also a continuing anomaly in the fundamental influences: relatively positive indications in quite a bit of the US economic data versus the additional headwinds which are so obviously going to impact the economy and markets into 2013. And one clear expression of that is in the important NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business) Small Business Confidence Survey that is very weak again this month after a disastrous November reading. The improvement to 88.00 from 87.50 masks some of the truly troubling aspects of this poll.

Still very negative after November plunge. Click to view Dunkelberg interview

Still very negative after November plunge. Click to view Dunkelberg interview

And we likely do not need to inform our readers that the Capital Spending indication is wholly inconsistent with the abysmal readings in the balance of the survey. Click on the table to see the CNBC video where Steve Leisman notes how minor this month’s improvement is compared to a November that was worse than 9/11 and almost as bad as the Lehman Brothers collapse response.

Dunkelberg was happy to share the small business owners’ primary reasons for such downbeat sentiment on the US economy and lack of any interest in hiring or expansion (in order of importance): Taxes, Weak Sales, Regulations. In other words, albeit with no mention of ‘protectionism’ this is a clear reflection of the continued drags from Taxulationism1.

1Taxulationism © 2010 Alan Rohrbach & Jack Bouroudjian. All rights reserved unless explicitly waived

Def.: Combined impact of taxation, regulation and protectionism to an oppressive degree as official policy

Yet there is even more reason to suspect the December economic indications are an anomaly on the way into weaker tendencies from a very well-informed source…

 

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2013/01/03: Quick Post: Fresh Tech available & ironic ‘creeping’ tax view

January 3, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

A fresh set of Technical Projections and Select Comments are already available via the link in the right hand column. They incorporate the sharp swings from the top of the year response to the US Fiscal Cliff avoidance effort. While that was characterized as a tax hike on ‘the rich’, it is important to note this was only insofar as the income tax rate is concerned.

And that is not the true sum of the real impact

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2013/01/02: Cal-Perspective and Playskool Politics

January 2, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective is also now available. Yet there is also a continuing anomaly in the fundamental influences. And it is not just the poor deal that both sides have visited on us with their last minute fix for the Fiscal Cliff…

The odd part is the degree to which the process remains so dysfunctional…

 

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2012/12/21: Quick Post: A time to kick back

December 21, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

After warning clients and colleagues of the continued risk of a macro-technical disconnect, (technical trend NOT reflecting macro fundamental factors)  it came home to roost late Thursday. Not that it was some sort of big prediction; more so a ‘shot’ based on the continuing Washington DC Fiscal Cliff negotiation disconnect we were seeing that the mainstream press somehow wanted to ignore. So what next after the markets reflected our inferences? A quick TrendView Market Alert for clients on Friday morning, and off on our sole real annual break.

And what better way to begin than dropping down into the city to hang at Chicago’s Millennium Park ‘Bean’ on a crisp winter evening to listen to carols from the Apollo Choir.

 BEANmilleniumAPOLOchorus-121221

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2012/12/21: Quick Post: Consumer confidence takes a hit

December 21, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Well it had to happen sooner or later. The highly resilient American consumer has finally taken a hit after months and months of the US Fiscal Cliff shenanigans.  Even the world’s most conspicuous of conspicuous consumers are dialing it back a bit. That may not be such a surprise in its own right, yet does have implications for the incipient global recovery.

And while the current weakening is the topic of this post, we still feel the Fiscal Cliff is merely the tip of a far more troubling economic headwinds iceberg that the US economy will smack into in 2013. Rather than dwell on all that, there was an excellent CNBC chat Wednesday morning with Bankrate.com’s senior financial analyst Greg McBride. The same sort of consumer response he ascribes to the Fiscal Cliff threat is likely going to be the case for higher US taxes which are on the way even if the near term failure is averted.

Bankrate.com's Greg mcBride notes a real dip in consumer confidence... the look of things to come?

Bankrate.com’s Greg McBride notes a real Fiscal Cliff dip in consumer confidence… the look of things to come?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2012/12/18: Cal-Perspective and S&P rip latest Fiscal Cliff whip into heavy holidays

December 18, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective is also now available. Yet there is also a continuing anomaly in the fundamental influences. And it is not just the weakish global economic data, but also the degree to which the equities are ignoring the potential to plunge off the Fiscal Cliff…

The odd part is the degree to which the press is reporting each new development as if it is a step closer to solution, which they are generally NOT. It is a matter of creative permutations of each sides positions being presented, yet…

 

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