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Posts Tagged ‘Federal Reserve’

2013/10/21: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income, FX (early)

October 21, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Monday, October 21, 2013 (Early Day)

 131021_SPZ60_GLOBAL_0800EQUITIES & FIXED INCOME & FOREIGN EXCHANGE

This is an atypical single TrendView Video (http://bit.ly/1azFmJ2), because so much of the trend evolution out of the end of last week into this morning has been very consistent with our views. So we are keeping it short and simple this morning. The timeline opens with the typical discussion of macro (i.e. politico-economic) factors and short-term December S&P 500 future view. That leads to the intermediate-term December S&P 500 future analysis from 03:30, with the other equities from 05:00, govvies analysis beginning at 07:15, and short money forwards from 11:50. The Foreign Exchange section continues with the US Dollar Index at 13:30, and jumping around a bit to best integrate the cross rate analysis with the US dollar relationships prior to a brief return to the December S&P 500 future at 17:40.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is now available via the right-hand sidebar link

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2013/10/01: Commentary: GOP paints itself into a corner… and worse

October 1, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

COMMENTARY: Tuesday, October 1, 2013.

130939-STEWARTshowSHUTDOWNeveWONKA

Daily Show – Jon Stewart and the ‘Wonka Message’ to the GOP’s right wing firebrands

Jon Stewart is well to the Left on the political spectrum. As such, we disagree with a lot of what he considers enlightened policy and politics. However, the shenanigans of the right wing of the Republican Party (and the leadership which has been coopted by it) have made Stewart and most Independent voters and even moderate Republicans/conservatives kindred spirits.

We have quite a bit more to say below on the many ways the GOP has looked bad and performed worse in the manner in which it handled the current budget confrontation the Democrats. The Stewart clip is worth watching for two aspects that resonate with many US voters. The first is his sense of exasperation… that is shared by everyone outside of the far right wing of the Republican Party. The second is Stewart’s naturally funny delivery on such an otherwise troubling topic.

After that we are going to launch into a vigorous dissection of the myriad ways in which the GOP leadership being seduced by the siren call of a government shutdown confrontation is totally counterproductive for a Republican Party that had shown some real gains right into Mr. Obama’s re-election last year. Really quite tragic for all the moderate conservatives out there.

 

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2013/09/19: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities & Govvies

September 19, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: After Market Analysis for Thursday, September 19, 2013

We have received extensive constructive feedback on our Video Trend Analysis and Outlook.  And in response to a significant number of requests, we are going to be splitting our blog posts into ‘TrendView’ with Videos and text-based analyses on one hand, and Commentary on the other.

The sentiment is that the TrendView analysis should not take a back seat (i.e. follow) to the often extensive Commentary. We appreciate this direction from you, and have begun after today’s US Close with a TrendView Video and brief bit of text-based Analysis and Outlook. We look forward to your feedback, and hope you find this evening’s analysis useful.

SPZ_130919_6030

The video timeline opens as usual with S&P 500 future, and then the govvies analysis beginning at 06:45 with some important futures expiration observations, and a return to the S&P 500 future for a final key short-term consideration at 16:40. And that’s it for this analysis with further comments below. This is an important follow up to previous views on the sharp reactions to the surprise lack of QE tapering by the FOMC.

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2013/01/29: Calendar, Finance Meets Professional Wrestling

January 29, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective will be added after the US Close today to allow for the influence of all of the (admittedly light) early week economic data prior to the late month data commencing tomorrow along with the FOMC announcement. Obviously that is followed by all of the first of the month data, which includes US Employment on Friday.

Yet, in addition to the calendar there are two key areas of interest we want to cover today: the final degeneration of the public image of finance (aided and abetted by the financial fourth estate), and the degree to which the equities’ technical psychology remains positive in spite of the March S&P 500 future setback from the 1,500 area.

First of all, there are the shenanigans surrounding Pershing Square Capital Management CEO Bill Ackman’s very public expressions of his bearish view of (and significant short position in) nutritional supplements company HerbalLife. And as most of you are likely already aware, that has led to a very public spat with previously aggressive activist investor turned corporate shepherd Carl Icahn. The highlight clip of that several day running confrontation is an interesting, if somewhat depressing, bit of viewing.

Ackman/Icahn Spat Highlights

Click for Ackman/Icahn Audio-Visual Highlights

Much more of the story beyond the clip highlights (including the back story on the sour relationship) is available online via Business Insider.   And just to show it is not just CNBC self-promotion when they say it, the BI article title also refers to it as The Greatest Moment in Financial TV History. More like one of the most depressing displays of excessive ego and opinion. (That said, the BI article is a bit of a good giggle.)

And it leaves an already suffering financial services and investment industry (especially the ‘active funds management’ sector after the past couple of years) with another hit to its public image. Strong expressions of opinions on individual investments and entire sectors are to be expected from high-profile fund managers. But what transpired last week seems beyond the pale.

It sounded a lot more like the kind of confrontation we recall from our misspent youth watching professional wrestling interviews on television…

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2013/01/24: Technicals and Best Davos Insight

January 24, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

A fresh set of Technical Projections and Select Comments are already available via the link in the right hand column, current through Wednesday’s US Close. And those are now very relevant to the near term price activity in equities that are done standing still since the end of last week. Other asset classes that have also had some reasonably strong swings.

More on that below. Yet the most interesting public insight (versus any backroom conspiracies) to come out of the World Forum in Davos, Switzerland was the CNBC interview of Bridgewater Associates’ head Ray Dalio. While he revisits quite a few topics he has expounded upon previous, his review of his general approach to ‘the machine’ (which he considers the best analysis approach to both the economy and the markets) is a always a pleasure to hear…   

CNBCdavosDALIOclip-130124…and a reminder of why he is one of the most successful fund managers in history. In fact, that interview is split into two parts. The first is Dalio’s Perspective on Deleveraging, followed by Dalio on Policy & Productivity. The first part is very explicit on the importance of the various aspects and approaches to the current major deleveraging cycle. There are also discussions of how the central banks are affecting markets and economies, and a reminder that trading is a zero sum game.

 

The second section relates it all back to the current economic conditions, and even ends with a very brief individual country review. Enjoy the view. In the meantime, even though the markets took some interesting swings today, we feel the basic themes of stronger equities, challenged govvies and highly varied foreign exchange remain in place.

 

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2013/01/22: Calendar, Japan and ‘Sherlock Holmes’ Equities Psych

January 22, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective will be added sometime soon. Yet, in addition to the calendar are two key areas of interest we want to cover today: Japan and the degree to which the Equities psychology remains very positive in spite of some obvious headwinds.

First of all, the combined Bank of Japan and Japanese government anti-deflation program announced today is as breathtaking in its scope as it is quirky in its implementation. If they are so committed to ensuring the inflation rate ramps up to 2.0%, why are they deferring the extended additional asset purchase program until the beginning of next year? We suppose there is quite a bit of anticipatory psychology they expect to accomplish their ends without actually doing anything in the near-term.

Mr. Bernanke has shown how well that works on the Fed QE-Infinity program, so why wouldn’t Japan try it is well? Of course, the truly scary part is the degree to which they expect inflation to go from barely positive this year to something in the 3.0% area in 2014. That not only seems astounding as a prediction, but may well hold other risks to the Japanese government financing ability. They should be careful what they wish for.

Back to more mundane if still fairly exciting matters, the March S&P 500 future push above the 1,474.50 major September lead contract high. In essence amounts to the ‘jailbreak’ we had discussed in the Rohr-Blog US Equities Attempt a Jailbreakpost last Friday (in the wake of Thursday’s gap higher into that area.)

The bottom line is that in spite of this morning’s minor setback the bulls still own the trend unless and until the bears can get the market to Close back below last Thursday’s 1,470.70-1,465.60 gap higher. One of the key technical aspects that assisted Friday’s late session recovery was the inability of the bears to leverage the weak Michigan Sentiment number, as the March S&P 500 future held exactly at the 1,470.70 top of that gap. 

Click on Chart to enlarge

Click on Chart to enlarge

And in spite of our skepticism toward the equities across the first quarter, that all fits in very nicely with the broader technical projections allowing a move up to the low 1,500 area prior to the lead contract S&P 500 future being overbought once again. It is all about the confluence of factors we discussed in the previous Thursday’s (Jan. 10) Might US Equities Attempt a Jailbreak? post.

Once the equities demonstrate that the bears will not likely be able to force a Close back below last Thursday’s 1,470.70-1,465.60 gap higher, the path of least resistance becomes up; at least until they hit the next significant threshold.

We laid out the theory and practice behind that in a bit of a broader analytic psychology as to why the equities could continue lower in late 2008 in spite of how far they had already fallen. It all has to do with the combined perspective of Sherlock Holmes and Dynamic Disequilibrium

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2013/01/03: Quick Post: Fresh Tech available & ironic ‘creeping’ tax view

January 3, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

A fresh set of Technical Projections and Select Comments are already available via the link in the right hand column. They incorporate the sharp swings from the top of the year response to the US Fiscal Cliff avoidance effort. While that was characterized as a tax hike on ‘the rich’, it is important to note this was only insofar as the income tax rate is concerned.

And that is not the true sum of the real impact

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2012/12/14: Quick Post: Fiscal Cliff impasse deepens as Republicans leave town

December 14, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Is it really that bad? It seems the problem is what we outlined in earlier analyses on the Republican position. While they are being pressed to provide revenue increases or even actual top bracket income tax hikes (an anathema to many members of their party), the Democrats are also pushing them to specify which spending cuts they would approve. That seems a bit much, as the Democrats are the party with members who are running around asserting that no spending cuts at all may even be necessary.

One must admire the Democrats for attempting a political ploy where Republicans are reviled by some members of their own party for capitulating on either revenues or tax rate increases, and also get to be painted with the brush of the “Mean Old Republicans” who are demanding specific spending cuts.

That is how we reached the impasse yesterday where House Speaker John Boehner bemoaned the lack of any serious proposal from the Democrats, noting that the “slow walk” the Democrats were choosing to use as a negotiating tactic would end up plunging the US off the Fiscal Cliff.

And we know he’s really not bluffing…

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2012/12/11: Cal-Perspective and overall weakness in spite of some good data

December 11, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective is also now available. Yet there is also an interesting anomaly in the fundamental influences. And it is not just the strongish US economic data versus the trepidation over the potential plunge off the Fiscal Cliff… as that dilemma looks closer to being solved timely enough (end of year or top of January) to avoid its worst effects.

There is also the negative outlook for Europe. Today’s German and Euro-zone (essentially the same) ZEW Sentiment (i.e. the forward view) was stronger than expected. Yet, that flies in the face of other indications out of Europe that are still incredibly weak… like the recent Italian and Spanish Industrial Production numbers that came in below already weak estimates. And anyone who thinks Germany is going to return to being a bastion of strength in Europe should take a look at Monday morning’s admittedly mixed Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators (CLI).

The only real growth is in the US and (interestingly enough in light of recent official forecasts) the UK, with growth or even economic basing elsewhere problematic at best. Even more important is the degree to which Germany remains on a distinctly downward path into the early part of next year. The general tone of the OECD regarding the actual condition of CLI on individual countries is also typically charitable. How does France sliding further below 100 and remaining on a clear downward path indicate “weak growth”? And even though it is still marginally above 100, the same goes for Japan; especially in light of it just recently going back into recession.

And it appears that our continued concerns over US Taxulationism1 are finally beginning to bite. It is no longer just our theoretical assessment that these influences from a Nanny State run amok are a problem.

1Taxulationism © 2010 Alan Rohrbach & Jack Bouroudjian. All rights reserved unless explicitly waived

Def.: Combined impact of taxation, regulation and protectionism to an oppressive degree as official policy

There is now real-world confirmation from actual surveys of the impact this is going to have into the early part of next year. And that comes from none other than one of our favorite US employment-related resources

 

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2012/12/04: Cal-Perspective and US Age of Austerity finally here?

December 4, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective is also now available. Yet there is also an interesting anomaly in the fundamental influences. And it is not just the strongish US economic data versus the trepidation over the potential plunge off the Fiscal Cliff… there is also the negative outlook into next year.

The misguided perception in some quarters that the US election would settle enough ‘uncertainty’ to encourage an economic revival on the back of clearer parameters has now been completely dispelled. As noted in our post early last week, nothing could have been further from the truth, as the public pronouncements by highly partisan US political class leave little hope that there is common ground for constructive compromise. And with Mr. Obama’s reelection, we suspect he feels within his rights to push his agenda at the same time Conservatives find it as distasteful and counterproductive as ever.

It’s good old Nanny State Taxulationism1 finally run amok, as the President and his cohorts distract the opposition with outrageous proposals to waylay them from unwinding what’s already the law of the land.

1Taxulationism © 2010 Alan Rohrbach & Jack Bouroudjian. All rights reserved unless explicitly waived

Def.: Combined impact of taxation, regulation and protectionism to an oppressive degree as official policy

And while framing this as a US Age of Austerity might seem a bit harsh, it is something we have warned of since back in 2010 (well, a ‘Frugality’ mania in the first instance.) To revisit those major themes from a previous post, regardless of whether the Fiscal Cliff is addressed, the degree to which 2013 is going to be a tough year has not escaped the watchful eye of the best of the observers…

 

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