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Posts Tagged ‘Evans’

2013/11/15: Commentary: QE-Infinity III: The Silence of the Bernanke

November 15, 2013 Leave a comment

QE-Infinity III: The Silence of the Bernanke

Extended review of the immediate QE implications of the Fed Chairman transition

and extended implications for the fully ‘mature’ QE-Infinity program

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Commentary: Friday, November 15th Weekend Read

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QE-Infinity III: The Silence of the Bernanke

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2013/10/31: TrendView VIDEO: Equities, Fixed Income, FX (after the US Close)

October 31, 2013 Leave a comment

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2013/10/31: TrendView VIDEO: Equities, Fixed Income, FX

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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, October 31st (after the US Close)

131031_EQ_FIXED_1530EQUITIES

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2013/10/30: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Govvies (after the US Close)

October 30, 2013 Leave a comment

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2013/10/30: TrendView VIDEO: Equities, Fixed Income, FX

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, October 30th (early)

131030_EQ_FIXED_1530EQUITIES

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2013/10/30: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income, FX

October 30, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

2013/10/30: TrendView VIDEO: Equities, Fixed Income, FX

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, October 30th (early)

131030_SPZ60_GLOBAL_0815

EQUITIES

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2013/10/23: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income (after the US Close)

October 23, 2013 Leave a comment

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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, October 23, 2013 (after the US Close)

131023_EQ_FIXED_1530

EQUITIES & FIXED INCOME

This is a typical concise TrendView Video because so much of the trend evolution is obviously still consistent with the major multi-asset class video from this morning. We refer you back to that for the extended trend views and short-term trend evolution.  

The timeline for this video opens with the typical discussion of macro (i.e. politico-economic) factors, shifting to the short-term December S&P 500 future view at 01:30 and intermediate term assessment at 05:15. That shifts in the December T-note future at 07:30, with mention of the other govvies at 09:20, and a brief return to the December S&P 500 future at 10:05.

The bottom line is that it is all still consistent with the market context discussed in yesterday’s post on QE-Infinity is good for what ails youunless you’re the US dollar. We expect more of the same, and the govvies are in a particularly critical phase after their recent rally. The fine line analysis for the rest of the markets is best reviewed in extensive graphical analysis in this morning’s video and the market analysis below (which is also still consistent with yesterday’s views.)

The Weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective is now available via the right-hand sidebar link

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2013/10/23: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income, FX (early)

October 23, 2013 Leave a comment

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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, October 23, 2013 (Early Day)

131023_SPZ60_GLOBAL_0800EQUITIES & FIXED INCOME & FOREIGN EXCHANGE

This is an atypical single TrendView Video because so much of the trend evolution out of the end of last week into the middle of this week has been very consistent with our views. That said, this is also a very extensive analysis. That is due to so many factors that affect each asset class are spilling over into affecting the other, and we wanted the discussion under one roof (so to speak.)

Due to the length of the video, we strongly suggest you take advantage of the timeline scrolling function at the bottom of the video to proceed to those sections most relevant for you. The timeline opens with the typical discussion of macro (i.e. politico-economic) factors, shifting to the short-term December S&P 500 future view at 04:00 and intermediate term assessment at 06:50. That leads to the other equities from 10:00, govvies analysis beginning at 12:25, and short money forwards from 16:40. The foreign exchange section continues with the US Dollar Index at 18:50, jumping over to Europe at 20:15 and Asia at 22:50, followed by the cross rates at 25:10 and a brief return to the December S&P 500 future at 28:20.

The bottom line is that it is all still consistent with the market context discussed in yesterday’s post on QE-Infinity is good for what ails youunless you’re the US dollar. We expect more of the same, and the govvies are in a particularly critical phase after their recent rally. The fine line analysis is best reviewed in extensive graphical analysis in the video.

The Weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective is now available via the right-hand sidebar link

Read more…

2013/10/22: Commentary: QE-Infinity. Good for what ails you…

October 22, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

COMMENTARY: Tuesday, October 22, 2013.

QE-Infinity.  Good for what ails you…

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 …unless you’re the US dollar.

The current situation is easy to assess, even if there are seeming inconsistencies with the classical intermarket influences. And it all boils down to the Fed’s seemingly endless commitment to QE… as in QE-Infinity. It shows up in the multi-asset class response to the quite a bit weaker than expected US Employment report today.

 

And that is all laid out quite clearly by one of the dominant doves (or is that a contradiction in terms?) Chicago Fed President Charles Evens was interviewed by Steve Liesman on CNBC early Monday, and we had already incorporated his views in the top of the week Trendview Video analysis from yesterday morning. He seems to clearly articulate what all of the doves (and those who are neither expecting nor necessarily want any reform in Washington DC) have already implied:

Quantitative Easing to a maximum degree that many joked was Buzz Lightyear Bernanke’s plan to take QE to ‘infinity and beyond” is indeed edging toward ‘QE-Infinity’. While the near-term influences driving that indeed seem rational, where in the world (or more appropriately the whole universe) does the Fed find the rationale to stop?

Two questions came up in the interview that are not part of the concise video synopsis. The first is whether the Fed will actually still be able to stop QE altogether by mid-2014 as it seemed to imply previous, and many expect. That was merely dodged.

Yet more important was Liesman’s pointed question on whether there is a practical limit to the size of the Fed’s balance sheet? It was especially telling in that he even cited levels like $5 trillion? $12 trillion? The almost incredible answer…

[The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available via the link in the right-hand sidebar.]

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