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Posts Tagged ‘ESM’

2013/10/03: Commentary: Got that old ‘2011’ feeling back… and not just us!!

October 3, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

COMMENTARY: Thursday, October 3, 2013.

 CNBC-OBAMAharwoodINTVW-131002Crisis? What US government funding crisis?

Uh-Oh… even the Prez is allowing this one ain’t good!! We don’t agree with a lot of what the President has put in place (in fact we disagree with most of it.) Yet he was right to caution that markets are likely being too sanguine in the face of these unyielding positions on both sides.

You’d think from the way the markets are behaving there is no crisis looming in the US. This could be a major bit of cognitive dissonance brewing for the investor class (including more than a few ostensibly well-informed fund managers.) What we are witnessing is a short term disconnect that most folks expect will be readily corrected, yet which might carry more dire implications even across the short term.

While not wanting to play Cassandra, this all feels a lot more like July 2011 Redux than anything seen in any of the mini-crises since then.

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2012/10/18: Weekly Perspective into Equities signaled changing dynamic

October 18, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective is available through the link in the right hand column. The Technical Projections and Select Comments from last week are also available and still relevant… with the notable exception of the critical equities decision explored in the General Market Observations and EXTENDED TREND IMPLICATIONS below.

This is one of those weeks that saw equities benefit from the combined influence of the now well-established central-bank support along with somewhat better data. As it typically takes a couple of quarters for the central-bank actions to impact the various economies, it leads one to wonder whether the central bank actions were really all that necessary. However, in this case we must allow that the anticipation of worse things to come is enough of a psychological drag to justify at least some of the central-bank largesse. What is most interesting is not that the central bank and supra-national actions have created a ‘risk on’ psychology, but more so how little is being done about the underlying problems which caused the central banks to feel their massive involvement was necessary in the first place.

And those are apparent both in Europe and the US…  

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2012/08/01: Quick Post: Pre-FOMC: Fresh Tech now available

August 1, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Technical Projections and Select Comments are now available through the link in the right hand column. That is along with this week’s previously provided Weekly Report and Event Calendar and Summary Perspective on Key Influences, also all available through the link in the right hand column.Even as demure as we try to be at most times, due to the pressure on central banks to “do something”, we could not help but note that this is going to ultimately be a proverbial MONSTER WEEK.

And it is no secret that even with the imminent FOMC announcement, the real crux of the matter is whatever transpires at the ECB post-rate decision press conference Thursday morning (US time.) After President Draghi’s bold pronouncement on doing ‘whatever is necessary’ to save the euro currency project, there will be a major focus on the specifics at that press conference. And even beyond that, there are surrounding factors which are so highly critical…

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2012/06/29: Quick Post: Germany saves world… Maybe

June 29, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Short & Sweet on the specific market comments in this post, because today’s TrendView Brief Update was an extended discussion of the various price whipsaws back to psychologically important areas after the Euro-zone love fest into this morning. In fact, while a bit of that is follow-up on the other asset classes (i.e. outside of equities), the psychology and technical trend structure are also right back into the key US levels.

And as it relates to the key September S&P 500 future, the replay is almost exactly the same as the optimistic run-up into the FOMC meeting last week. It all seems consistent with market reactions to previous Euro-zone grand bargain announcements, and Yankees Manager and Malaprop Master Yogi Berra’s observation, “It’s like déjà vu all over again.”

Yet, as has been typical, the European moves raise as many questions as they address…

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2012/06/15: Euro-zone seeming like currency union equivalent of US NINJA mortgages

June 15, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

You remember NINJA mortgages: No Income, and No Job or Assets. Well the rolling fiasco that is the European Sovereign Debt Crisis seems to have a recurring theme that is now reaching a critical inflection point. That would be No Urgency, Deposit Insurance or Stability Mechanism.

Yep, that’s right… the (very rightful) acronym is NUDISM. And it is indeed the naked mendacity of the entire project that is now coming to the fore. Whether or not that lands Europe in a real crisis on the Greek election results this weekend that infects the rest of the global banking system is problematic. However, those both inside and outside of the Euro-zone are now allowing that without some extreme adjustment of positions on both sides of the indebtedness divide the entire project might finally be shown to be less than viable.

However, before we even get to the way in which Germany has managed to fail its next ‘Jerry Maguire (“show me the money”) Moment’, there is another bit of foolishness worth discussing. That is the fanfare accompanying the idea that a majority of the European Central Bank board might agree that lowering its base rate is probably a good idea at this juncture. Why now? Why not at any point up until this moment other than the fact they are scared witless by the prospect of a negative outcome from this weekend’s Greek election?

Should they proceed with an ex-meeting rate cut, it will undoubtedly go down as the most meaningless…

 

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2012/05/17: Fed more likely to step in. Does it matter?

May 17, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

It is one of those canards in the current equities market (and to a lesser degree economic) psychology that there is no more extensive QE (quantitative easing) at present by central banks outside of Japan. Nor is there any explicitly planned. Yet there could easily be more if conditions warranted.

This is a form of the central banks’ desire to both have their cake and eat it. Whatever one might call it (‘Bernanke Put’, etc.), the central banks have indicated that they are indeed ready to provide more liquidity if necessary due to deteriorating economic conditions or disorderly market activity.

Seems like a good way to underpin market psychology. Yet, will it really help all that much if the crunch returns? Frankly we’re skeptical. And the context of the FOMC minutes key passage yesterday highlights how the promise of easing or liquidity infusions in a crunch will not likely actually do much overall for the economy.

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