Posts Tagged ‘Employment report’

2013/12/06: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income, FX (early)

December 6, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

2013/12/06: TrendView VIDEO: S&P, Govvies, FX (early))

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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, December 6, 2013 (early)


S&P, Govvies, FX

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2013/10/21: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income, FX (early)

October 21, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Monday, October 21, 2013 (Early Day)


This is an atypical single TrendView Video (, because so much of the trend evolution out of the end of last week into this morning has been very consistent with our views. So we are keeping it short and simple this morning. The timeline opens with the typical discussion of macro (i.e. politico-economic) factors and short-term December S&P 500 future view. That leads to the intermediate-term December S&P 500 future analysis from 03:30, with the other equities from 05:00, govvies analysis beginning at 07:15, and short money forwards from 11:50. The Foreign Exchange section continues with the US Dollar Index at 13:30, and jumping around a bit to best integrate the cross rate analysis with the US dollar relationships prior to a brief return to the December S&P 500 future at 17:40.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is now available via the right-hand sidebar link

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2013/10/04: Commentary: Your Government at Work… or NOT!!

October 4, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

COMMENTARY: Friday, October 4, 2013.

CNBCemplRPTnotPEARSON-131004CNBC – Hampton Pearson with the September US Employment Report (which everyone knew was not going to be released due to the government shutdown) from the US Labor Department

And the number is… ??????? 

Can’t tell ya. Don’t know.

What a way to run a railroad. And here are the wizards in Congress at the switches again, hoping they can time the shift into continuing operations timely… as in before the US government train heads off the cliff again.

And as we noted yesterday, while we hope and expect Congress will find a way to pass not just a Continuing Resolution on spending but also the far more critical Debt Ceiling increase timely to avoid an October 17th US government default, with these folks you never know. And the ‘failure is not an option’ crowd is back out in full flower. But as we noted on Tuesday, they also held that view right up to the actual failure back in August 2011. So no real cause for comfort there.

The Current Rohr Technical ProjectionsKey Levels & Select Comments are also already available via the link in the right-hand column. [Please note we did not post a TrendView Video analysis from yesterday afternoon because it was obvious the S&P 500 and other markets were slipping into a quiet finish for the week. That is consistent with our Global analysis from yesterday morning. Our full Global analysis based on today’s Close will be available over the weekend.]

As a bonus today, there is more Commentary video on the degree to which the US budget gridlock can be readily solved if…


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2013/01/29: Calendar, Finance Meets Professional Wrestling

January 29, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective will be added after the US Close today to allow for the influence of all of the (admittedly light) early week economic data prior to the late month data commencing tomorrow along with the FOMC announcement. Obviously that is followed by all of the first of the month data, which includes US Employment on Friday.

Yet, in addition to the calendar there are two key areas of interest we want to cover today: the final degeneration of the public image of finance (aided and abetted by the financial fourth estate), and the degree to which the equities’ technical psychology remains positive in spite of the March S&P 500 future setback from the 1,500 area.

First of all, there are the shenanigans surrounding Pershing Square Capital Management CEO Bill Ackman’s very public expressions of his bearish view of (and significant short position in) nutritional supplements company HerbalLife. And as most of you are likely already aware, that has led to a very public spat with previously aggressive activist investor turned corporate shepherd Carl Icahn. The highlight clip of that several day running confrontation is an interesting, if somewhat depressing, bit of viewing.

Ackman/Icahn Spat Highlights

Click for Ackman/Icahn Audio-Visual Highlights

Much more of the story beyond the clip highlights (including the back story on the sour relationship) is available online via Business Insider.   And just to show it is not just CNBC self-promotion when they say it, the BI article title also refers to it as The Greatest Moment in Financial TV History. More like one of the most depressing displays of excessive ego and opinion. (That said, the BI article is a bit of a good giggle.)

And it leaves an already suffering financial services and investment industry (especially the ‘active funds management’ sector after the past couple of years) with another hit to its public image. Strong expressions of opinions on individual investments and entire sectors are to be expected from high-profile fund managers. But what transpired last week seems beyond the pale.

It sounded a lot more like the kind of confrontation we recall from our misspent youth watching professional wrestling interviews on television…

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2013/01/03: Quick Post: Fresh Tech available & ironic ‘creeping’ tax view

January 3, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

A fresh set of Technical Projections and Select Comments are already available via the link in the right hand column. They incorporate the sharp swings from the top of the year response to the US Fiscal Cliff avoidance effort. While that was characterized as a tax hike on ‘the rich’, it is important to note this was only insofar as the income tax rate is concerned.

And that is not the true sum of the real impact

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2012/12/07: Quick Post: Why US Employment report was bogus

December 7, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

We found the strong initial equities response to the US Employment report bizarre. Could we have been the only ones considering what was, and what was not, counted? There is also the issue of how the US Unemployment Rate got to 7.70% that we will revisit below. But that initial strong equities response was a clear indication of nothing other than the power of headline numbers to move markets regardless of what the full story might be.

And as bizarre as it might’ve sounded on the initial release, there is a good reason the Bureau of Labor Statistics could tell us that Super Storm Sandy had little or no impact! Based on the fine line statistical methodology, anyone employed on October 13 was counted as employed after Sandy hit on October 29th.  It is indeed accurate because of the reporting period statistical protocols. The November data was drawn from the period between October 13th and November 12th, and any worker who was not off for the entire pay period is counted as employed!!

However, that would mean that the estimates which attempted to incorporate the impact of Sandy were significantly misguided…


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2012/10/30: Hurricane Sandy classically perverse economic influence

October 30, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

As we noted in the previous post’s mention of this aspect, there is a typically somewhat perverse influence of a major storm like Hurricane Sandy. It is so counterintuitive as to not be as clear cut as most folks would like to think. Anyone except serious market students who have been there before (like Irene and especially Katrina, etc.) are not necessarily prepared to look at all the carnage presented by the media and consider it is anything negative.

The only question now is whether this storm is the norm or a new form? And by that we mean the extensive damage (even more so by a major factor than last year’s Hurricane Irene) that is being incurred not just along the entire Northeastern seaboard, but the entire Northeast region. It is one thing for New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf coast to be slammed by Katrina. Might it be another matter altogether for the highly concentrated Northeast (as well as regions as far west as Pennsylvania and even Ohio) to be shut down for an extended period?

Maybe. But it in the final analysis it shouldn’t actually be an economic drag over horizons like 90-180 days because…

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2012/10/05: Quick Post: Courtesy MARKET ALERT: Employment Report technical trend assessment

October 5, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Very short and sweet today, because all of the perspective is still much the same as expressed previous on the critical nature of an effective response to the ‘perverse’ Spanish bailout dynamic. ECB President Draghi did a great job of offsetting the potential political risks by pointing out how forcefully the European Central Bank can and will act once the European powers-that-be reach agreement.

He waxed eloquent on credit spreads, conditionality, and mostly deferred back to the political class to strike the agreements that would allow the ECB to intervene at all. A masterful job of “doing something” without really doing anything more than reconfirming previous positions. And equity markets seemed to appreciate that quite a bit, as it leaves the door open to ECB activating Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) on all manner of far-flung justifications anytime it can specify the Monetary Policy Transmission channel is disrupted. Possibly even prior to a final agreement by the politicians.


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2012/10/03: Quick Post: Weekly Perspective available… intense early month decision

October 3, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Very short and sweet today, because all of the perspective is still much the same as our expectations last week that QE3 can give equities a boost, but is not actually very helpful for an ailing global economy. After equities spent all of last week in a more reactive mode on the downside, they are likely vulnerable unless the December S&P 500 future can push back above 1,450 area for the weekly Close.

Friday’s US Employment report will naturally be a major influence. Yet there have been quite a few interesting influences earlier this week, and others which remain prior to the US Jobs number on Friday. There was the surprise rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia yesterday morning. A link to their statement is available in the Weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective. It seems the last of the bullish central banks is finally acknowledging how weakness in Europe has fed greater than expected weakness in China and Asia in general.

Yet there is an even more telling influence in front of Friday’s US numbers…


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2012/10/01: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar available and QE influence still a factor

October 1, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. The Technical Projections and Select Comments from late last week are also available and still relevant. This week’s Summary Perspective on Key Influences will be posted later this evening, and we hope you find that useful as well.

As is typical of the first week of the month, it is going to be a heavy data week all week, and that began today with Global Manufacturing PMI’s. Continued disappointment with Asia (including Australia) and Europe was offset to a fairly interesting degree by the better-than-expected US ISM Manufacturing. However here as well, there was some bad news…

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