Archive

Posts Tagged ‘Elliott’

2011/08/10: How We Got Here-IV: Welcome to the Island, Survivor (…we hope)

August 10, 2011 5 comments

Yep, it seems to have all turned into a big game of Survivor… And the two-way stretch from the stress factors is obvious. Getting through this is going to be a test of who can stand the huge amount of cognitive dissonance imposed from the outside. That includes the increasingly tedious and blindingly benighted machinations of the political class and alleged financial luminaries, and the radical, rabid dog reactions it foments in the markets.

It increasingly seems this is going to be a test of endurance, as Ben Bernanke was probably right to indicate that there won’t be much need to raise rates between now and mid-2013. In other words, after his previous soothing views on the economy and markets, the Fed head has thrown in the towel on expecting anything truly positive to develop in the intermediate term. And that’s not just us playing off his perceptions, as we have been great skeptics of the ability to return to an upbeat economic environment in spite of any improvement in equities and risk assets. And neither is it plain old bearish talk. Beyond the fiscal and debt ceiling dilemmas, there is good reason to believe it can’t get better this side of the next US general election.

Read more…

Advertisements