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Posts Tagged ‘economic’

2013/10/07: Commentary: Load, Lock, Shoot Foot

October 7, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

COMMENTARY: Monday, October 7, 2013.

 ABCthisweekBOEHNERnotVOTEinHOUSE-131006

 Load. Lock. Shoot Foot.

No vote in House for ‘clean’ Continuing Resolution.

Is this right? …well, ‘correct’ anyway. It’s definitely Right… as in Speaker Boehner’s crushing need to respect the wishes of the politically well-Right of center Republican Reps in the House.  And this came out in impressive fashion in Sunday’s political talk shows. Huffington Post’s article and many other sources dispute Boehner’s assertion that the votes would not be there in the House for a ‘clean’ Continuing Resolution (and by implication a clean Debt Ceiling hike… the far more critical horizon.)

And in fact, the entire overreach of first demanding a repeal and then shifting to a delay in Obamacare implementation was such a benighted tactic by the political Right, that it’s dimensions are hard to fathom for anyone but the most politically attuned. And as we have recently noted once again, most Americans are not that politically astute or engaged. And most foreigners simply consider a sign of (as we noted in a recent post) ‘political stupidity’ (thanks to the Financial Times’ John Authers for that one.)

As we pondered the extended damaged to what had been a recently resurgent Republican Party (until now), it just gets worse and worse. The Tea Party faction does indeed have some very good ideas for how to evolve a smaller, more efficient government. Yet the tactics of the party leaders they are pushing for results in Washington DC are burying whatever chance the Republicans may have had to achieve further electoral gains.

Which is why we view all of the sound and fury over the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) being bad law implementing bad policy is likely right in the final analysis. All the more reason the overly ardent, yet poorly thought, approach of the Tea Party’s allies in the House and Senate leadership is indeed a case of…

Load. Lock. Shoot Foot.

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2013/10/07: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income, FX

October 7, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Monday, October 7, 2013.

131004_EQ_FIXED_WKNDEQUITIES & FIXED INCOME

While the TrendView Videos are from after Friday’s US Close, they remain very relevant for the trend decisions into early this week based on the influence of the US budget impasse. The timeline of the Equities and Fixed Income video opens with the typical short-term and intermediate-term view of the S&P 500 future, the other equities from 04:40, with govvies analysis beginning at 06:40, and short money forwards from 10:30.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available via the right-hand sidebar link

FOREIGN EXCHANGE Analysis and Outlook below.

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2013/10/03: Commentary: Got that old ‘2011’ feeling back… and not just us!!

October 3, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

COMMENTARY: Thursday, October 3, 2013.

 CNBC-OBAMAharwoodINTVW-131002Crisis? What US government funding crisis?

Uh-Oh… even the Prez is allowing this one ain’t good!! We don’t agree with a lot of what the President has put in place (in fact we disagree with most of it.) Yet he was right to caution that markets are likely being too sanguine in the face of these unyielding positions on both sides.

You’d think from the way the markets are behaving there is no crisis looming in the US. This could be a major bit of cognitive dissonance brewing for the investor class (including more than a few ostensibly well-informed fund managers.) What we are witnessing is a short term disconnect that most folks expect will be readily corrected, yet which might carry more dire implications even across the short term.

While not wanting to play Cassandra, this all feels a lot more like July 2011 Redux than anything seen in any of the mini-crises since then.

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2013/09/27: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities

September 27, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: After Market for Thursday, September 26, 2013.

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 EQUITIES

The video timeline opens with some macro factor discussion, and continues with December S&P 500 future short-term view at 03:00 and intermediate term analysis from 04:50. The mention of the other equities, govvies and foreign exchange is from 07:20, with a brief return to the short-term December S&P 500 future from 09:10.

For anyone who has not already seen them, we suggest viewing Equities & Fixed Income as well as Foreign Exchange TrendView video analyses available in the blog from yesterday morning for a more extensive discussion of the various asset classes’ trend dynamics.  

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2013/09/24: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities (after Tuesday’s US Close)

September 24, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: After Market Analysis for Tuesday, September 24, 2013.

130924_SPZ_6030

EQUITIES

The video timeline begins as always with the S&P 500 future with mention of the other equities at 07:25, brief govvies note at 07:40, foreign exchange at 08:05 and a mention of macro factors at 09:00, returning for a brief review of the key short-term factors for the December S&P 500 future at 09:40. That last bit also includes a brief mention of the benighted US political/fiscal influence flowing out of Congress.

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2013/01/29: Calendar, Finance Meets Professional Wrestling

January 29, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective will be added after the US Close today to allow for the influence of all of the (admittedly light) early week economic data prior to the late month data commencing tomorrow along with the FOMC announcement. Obviously that is followed by all of the first of the month data, which includes US Employment on Friday.

Yet, in addition to the calendar there are two key areas of interest we want to cover today: the final degeneration of the public image of finance (aided and abetted by the financial fourth estate), and the degree to which the equities’ technical psychology remains positive in spite of the March S&P 500 future setback from the 1,500 area.

First of all, there are the shenanigans surrounding Pershing Square Capital Management CEO Bill Ackman’s very public expressions of his bearish view of (and significant short position in) nutritional supplements company HerbalLife. And as most of you are likely already aware, that has led to a very public spat with previously aggressive activist investor turned corporate shepherd Carl Icahn. The highlight clip of that several day running confrontation is an interesting, if somewhat depressing, bit of viewing.

Ackman/Icahn Spat Highlights

Click for Ackman/Icahn Audio-Visual Highlights

Much more of the story beyond the clip highlights (including the back story on the sour relationship) is available online via Business Insider.   And just to show it is not just CNBC self-promotion when they say it, the BI article title also refers to it as The Greatest Moment in Financial TV History. More like one of the most depressing displays of excessive ego and opinion. (That said, the BI article is a bit of a good giggle.)

And it leaves an already suffering financial services and investment industry (especially the ‘active funds management’ sector after the past couple of years) with another hit to its public image. Strong expressions of opinions on individual investments and entire sectors are to be expected from high-profile fund managers. But what transpired last week seems beyond the pale.

It sounded a lot more like the kind of confrontation we recall from our misspent youth watching professional wrestling interviews on television…

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2013/01/24: Technicals and Best Davos Insight

January 24, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

A fresh set of Technical Projections and Select Comments are already available via the link in the right hand column, current through Wednesday’s US Close. And those are now very relevant to the near term price activity in equities that are done standing still since the end of last week. Other asset classes that have also had some reasonably strong swings.

More on that below. Yet the most interesting public insight (versus any backroom conspiracies) to come out of the World Forum in Davos, Switzerland was the CNBC interview of Bridgewater Associates’ head Ray Dalio. While he revisits quite a few topics he has expounded upon previous, his review of his general approach to ‘the machine’ (which he considers the best analysis approach to both the economy and the markets) is a always a pleasure to hear…   

CNBCdavosDALIOclip-130124…and a reminder of why he is one of the most successful fund managers in history. In fact, that interview is split into two parts. The first is Dalio’s Perspective on Deleveraging, followed by Dalio on Policy & Productivity. The first part is very explicit on the importance of the various aspects and approaches to the current major deleveraging cycle. There are also discussions of how the central banks are affecting markets and economies, and a reminder that trading is a zero sum game.

 

The second section relates it all back to the current economic conditions, and even ends with a very brief individual country review. Enjoy the view. In the meantime, even though the markets took some interesting swings today, we feel the basic themes of stronger equities, challenged govvies and highly varied foreign exchange remain in place.

 

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