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Posts Tagged ‘earnings’

2013/01/18: US Equities Attempt a Jailbreak… Subject to Recapture?

January 18, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

As we noted last Thursday, the March S&P 500 future was going to be critical if and when it pushed up into 1,474.50. Of course, that was the September 15th lead contract (September 2012 at the time) rally high from the QE-phoria ECB and Fed driven surge. All of the broad technical factors which make that area such a major technical trend decision confluence were reviewed at length in last Thursday’s post Might the US Equities Attempt a Jailbreak?

And they remain much the same, as those major indications actually do not change much week to week. What also does not change much week to week is the relatively soft economic data out of Asia and Europe that has been countered by stronger readings in the US. We saw more of that this morning in the East and Europe, yet now have a day in the US with almost no economic data.  And the weak economic data in Europe might not be so troubling in the wake of the ‘lack of crisis’ guidance from President Draghi at last week’s ECB press conference.

As we have covered quite a bit of the fundamental positives and negatives of late, it is more important to focus on the end of weak technical activity today. What is most important is the manner in which the March S&P 500 future fell back from a push to a 1,480 high yesterday to park itself right near 1,475 on the Close. That leaves the decision either way with the activity later in the session into the weekly Close.

And each camp has its challenges. Before we explore those it is important to note that the market might decide not to decide: we could have another quiet Friday drift that has actually been the tendency over the past several weeks. However if either the bulls or bears are going to gain a clear advantage, each as to prove their case beyond a specific technical threshold.

On present form, the bulls have a bit easier in the context of the obvious upward momentum. While any gap higher that fails to get through next resistance (especially if it is particularly critical resistance) might also be exhaustion, remaining well above yesterday’s 1470.70 low early in the session creates additional support around 1,474.50 today. That said, the bulls still need to achieve a close at least several dollars above that level in order to have the jailbreak continue on the upward run. That is now reinforced by the top of the overall channel from the major November low (CH2) extending to up around 1,478 today.

SPHdaily-130117And based upon that same psychology of whether a gap higher fails, the bears really have their work cut out for them. Given that the rally up until yesterday had stalled at no better than a pre-existing interim congestion and 1,465-67, it is of note that Wednesday’s daily Close was 1,465.60 (i.e. right in the low end of that range.) That makes it very clear technically that the bears need to get the market to close back below 1,465-67 to turn the latest upside Acceleration attempt into Exhaustion instead.

However, what is clear technically does not necessarily mean it is easy to accomplish in the real world market activity. The market also gapped up last Thursday above the previous congestion and rally high the 1,460-62 area. Even though it stalled at what was then the top of the same channel, the lack of ability to close back below 1,460 left the aggressive New Year up trend intact.

The difference this time is that any lack of ability to put the market back below the current gap will create the escape above 1,475 that points to the low 1,500 area at a minimum. We will revisit the reasons for that elevated interim objective below. However there is a much more critical near-term psychology which will likely affect the market later today…

…and that has to do with the current general global regional influence psychology.

  

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2012/10/24: Weekly Perspective and Technicals available into critical market phase

October 24, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Very short and sweet today, because all of the perspective is still much the same as yesterday’s post on the idea that it is Probably NOT Equities Big Bust …Just Yet. Even though the equities gapped down Tuesday below important supports at the bottom of a six-week trading range, the more important trend decision areas remain below the market. In the first instance there is the old early September gap in the 1,400 area on the December S&P 500 future. And that includes a Tolerance level even somewhat lower than that.

Yet, the most important evolution in the background that has driven the market psychology is the weakness of corporate topline revenues. That psychological discussion on that is available in our Weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective (link in the right-hand sidebar), with Technicals updated through Tuesday’s US Close as well.

That reinforces all of the warnings from the bears (present company included) that the weaker global economy would not allow companies to endlessly ‘manufacture’ attractive profits from sheer cost-cutting alone. At some point the piper would need to be paid with the sort of sustained lower earnings expectations that had been anticipated for the third quarter; and now that moment seem to have arrived…

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2012/10/23: Quick Post: Courtesy Market Alert: Probably NOT Equities Big Bust …Just Yet

October 23, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Short & Sweet again on the specific market comments in this post, because today’s TrendView Market Alert is a pointed discussion of the most critical short-term technical area NOT being the (now violated) December S&P 500 future 1,430-20 range. In other words, there are lower supports which are more important… like the 1,400 area and its Tolerance in the 1,389-87 range, which was held on minor reactions when the market was on the way up into August and early September. It was also the heavier congestion on the way up into a temporary top in March-April. 

 

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