Archive

Posts Tagged ‘Davos’

2013/01/24: Technicals and Best Davos Insight

January 24, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

A fresh set of Technical Projections and Select Comments are already available via the link in the right hand column, current through Wednesday’s US Close. And those are now very relevant to the near term price activity in equities that are done standing still since the end of last week. Other asset classes that have also had some reasonably strong swings.

More on that below. Yet the most interesting public insight (versus any backroom conspiracies) to come out of the World Forum in Davos, Switzerland was the CNBC interview of Bridgewater Associates’ head Ray Dalio. While he revisits quite a few topics he has expounded upon previous, his review of his general approach to ‘the machine’ (which he considers the best analysis approach to both the economy and the markets) is a always a pleasure to hear…   

CNBCdavosDALIOclip-130124…and a reminder of why he is one of the most successful fund managers in history. In fact, that interview is split into two parts. The first is Dalio’s Perspective on Deleveraging, followed by Dalio on Policy & Productivity. The first part is very explicit on the importance of the various aspects and approaches to the current major deleveraging cycle. There are also discussions of how the central banks are affecting markets and economies, and a reminder that trading is a zero sum game.

 

The second section relates it all back to the current economic conditions, and even ends with a very brief individual country review. Enjoy the view. In the meantime, even though the markets took some interesting swings today, we feel the basic themes of stronger equities, challenged govvies and highly varied foreign exchange remain in place.

 

Read more…

Advertisements

2012/01/27: It’s a wrap: Risk Fizzle, Euro-hope, WEF ‘Global Risks 2012’, Smartest Guy in the Room

January 27, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Looks like Helicopter Ben morphing into Gusher Ben didn’t help much… except to exacerbate what we all knew was going to be a disjointed week from the time we walked in. And the markets certainly did not disappoint in that regard. Pops and flops (equities and to a lesser degree risk assets like commodities), solid extensions of up trends (those strange bedfellows govvies and Gold), and significant reversals (back to the ‘risk-on’ US dollar “carry trade” in foreign exchange) were all apparent. And substantially due to the FOMC opting-in to a consensus the Federal Funds rate should remain effectively at zero for much longer than the middle of next year projected at their last meeting.

That summary view is all the reasonable response we anticipated in yesterday’s post on Gusher Ben attempting to push psychology upward from underneath hoping that the enthusiasm will pop like an oil ‘gusher’. This is nothing less than a mind game version of quantitative easing (i.e. de facto Q3.) All of the specific asset class analysis and the intermarket implications that came home to roost by yesterday’s Close spilled over into today were noted in yesterday’s analysis.

That said, the resilient equities have found a new/old cause for hope: fresh upbeat assessment of the potential for a Greek debt deal. EU Finance Minister Olli Rehn said this morning at Davos, “A Private Sector Involvement deal is imminent; if not today then likely over the weekend.” We shall see. Certainly everyone hopes he is right.  Yet there are several grounds for skepticism which even go beyond whether a deal can be crafted. There is now some concern whether the Greeks will sign on to something as modest as “reform” (forget “austerity”), and other issues remain.

Read more…