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Posts Tagged ‘China’

2013/11/26: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income, FX (early)

November 26, 2013 Leave a comment

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2013/11/22: TrendView VIDEO: Equities, Fixed Income, FX (early)

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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, November 26, 2013 (early)

131126_SPZ60_GLOBAL_0600

EQUITIES, Fixed Income, FX (early)

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2012/11/22: Happy Thanksgiving with NO Ambush

November 22, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Happy Thanksgiving to all of our US readers, with thanks especially for the lack of any big time volatile swing in the wake of an ambush today.

Let’s begin by allowing that there is typically only a marginal chance something will change radically on a surprise in one major financial center while another major center is closed for a holiday. That said, it has happened during some past instances. Tuesday’s Summary Perspective (available via the right hand column link) includes a brief discussion of how the US bond bears were ambushed in early November 2004. Back then the US bonds were under pressure near a critical low.

Yet on the November 11th Veteran’s Day holiday (also a Thursday) the German Bund saw some very weak German news that extended its rally to a significant new high. That deferred a broader US bond selloff for four months. In the event this time around the potential for Chinese and Euro-zone Advance PMI’s released today was certainly a concern for the recent equities rally back from a significant selloff. Yet, in the event they were constructive enough to allow equities to advance the last several days’ bid.

So no ambush this time, except…

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2012/08/10: Quick Post: Courtesy Brief Update: “Rock and a Hard Place” Equities

August 10, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Short & Sweet again on the specific market comments in this post, because today’s TrendView Brief Update is a pointed discussion of the significant clash of forces in the equities market. As we noted in Wednesday’s QE is the Opiate of the Perma-Bulls part 1a (part 2 to be provided soon), it has been a “bad news is good news” equities market of late. And Perma-Bulls seem to feel the worse the better, at least insofar as that increases the chances for additional central bank Quantitative Easing.

That would be the ‘rock’ that underpins the market. And yet the ‘hard place’ that both investors and short-term portfolio managers find themselves in is the now almost pervasive weak economic data. Even the recently Teflon Equities could not withstand the weak Chinese Export data today in the wake of their other weak data yesterday. All of which is only the further reflection of across-the-board weak global economic indications backlashing into China.     

And the other key aspect we keep a close eye on also reconfirmed those tendencies yesterday…

 

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2012/05/21: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar Available

May 21, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is now available through the link in the right hand column. The focused Summary Perspective on Key Influences below it will be provided later today, as we felt it more important to get right to the Concise Market View from the end of that due to the volatility already apparent early this week.

For those of you who have not already seen it, there is a lot of emphasis again this week on Thursday. And just as was the case last week, clear focus on the extensive data will be vying with facts on the ground out of Europe. There are some other items worth noting earlier in the week, but mostly not in today’s very slow economic data day.

Yet, even as early as tomorrow morning we see China’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index, and the OECD Economic Outlook along with Euro-zone Consumer Confidence. And the US has some interesting influences cropping up as well in a speech in Hong Kong on Monetary Policy by the Fed’s Lockhart along with…

 

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2011/12/15: Quick Post: US Jobs: Interesting Take on Chinese Import Duties

December 15, 2011 Leave a comment

© 2011 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Nowhere is the Law of Unintended Consequences more evident than in global commerce. And especially as it relates to the myriad permutations of international trade disputes. So it shouldn’t be any surprise that the current move by China to slap duties on cars manufactured in America is the third round of something that started with the US action to block Chinese tire imports at the World Trade Organization. China had challenged that ban, but according to the front page article in today’s Financial Times the challenge was dismissed.

And so began another couple of moves on the international trading chessboard which included poultry as well as automobiles. It actually might be a bit humorous and characterized as ‘typical’ that the auto import confrontation is not much more than a game of Chicken if it didn’t have such serious consequences. And those include the impact for American workers; yet not exactly in the way that most observers might assume. In fact, the European auto manufacturers are suffering far more than their American counterparts.

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2011/11/14: Quick Post: Weekly Reports & Events Calendar Now Available

November 14, 2011 Leave a comment

© 2011 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The full calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This is such a robust week once again, it is impossible to include anything but a fraction of the major influences in an overview. Yet, a few key aspects stand out among the other important reports and events.

In addition to the continued sharp influences from the attempts to address the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, there is also going to be quite an impact from important scheduled reports, communication from central banks and bankers, and government debt auctions.

The latter are very prominent this Thursday, as we see offerings from Europe as well as a US 10-year TIPS auction. Along with Tuesday it is the most intense event horizon this week. However, even though today is nominally a bit lighter than those heavy midweek influences, the nature of four key aspects today make it fairly critical. Consistent with continued concerns about the European situation, there is an Italian BTP auction that should be very interesting…

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2011/10/04: QuickPost: Might Monday Have Been About Obama and Congress?

October 4, 2011 Leave a comment

So much of what is ostensibly bothering the economies and equity markets right now is being blamed on Europe. Yet, we still feel that much of the concern should rightfully be directed at the weak outlook for the US economy. The most prominent center of consumption (conspicuous or otherwise) for the other global economies seeming damaged contributes significantly to the sense of weakness elsewhere. The rest of the world may no longer get pneumonia when the US catches cold, but they can surely catch cold if the US has pneumonia.

And that includes the degree to which China is no longer simply cooling, but seems headed for a much harder economic landing than was previously predicted. Of course, there had been some signs of that; most prominently in the last couple of month’s OECD Composite Leading Indicators, which we highlighted when they were released. That had already shown China moving toward a potential real slowdown. Contrary to hopes in some quarters, it was never reasonable that the emerging markets were going to rescue the developed economies. In fact, for all of the fixation on China’s aggressive growth, it is still a relatively small economy compared to the major, mature developed economies. As such, it still relies heavily on its exports to those economies; especially the US.

And what have we seen over the past couple of days? Nothing less than the failure of the US administration and Congress to come to grips with steps necessary to reinvigorate the US economy, and an imperious tone from the President on demanding action on his Jobs America bill during the press conference at the top of his Cabinet meeting yesterday.

After hearing from Dallas Fed President Fischer yesterday about the degree to which the Fed should not be attempting any further major actions, we wonder what we will hear from Chairman Bernanke today? To further convolute matters, anti-Fed Congressman Ron Paul will be exploring the potential to audit the Fed. Talk about basic bad timing all the way around!

As noted previous, there is even a pernicious new phase of protectionism entering the picture. Do we really need a trade war? Someone should illuminate the Congress on a little thing called “Smoot Hawley(same protectionist instincts circa 1930.)

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