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Posts Tagged ‘BoJ’

2013/11/15: Commentary: QE-Infinity III: The Silence of the Bernanke

November 15, 2013 Leave a comment

QE-Infinity III: The Silence of the Bernanke

Extended review of the immediate QE implications of the Fed Chairman transition

and extended implications for the fully ‘mature’ QE-Infinity program

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Commentary: Friday, November 15th Weekend Read

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QE-Infinity III: The Silence of the Bernanke

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2013/01/22: Calendar, Japan and ‘Sherlock Holmes’ Equities Psych

January 22, 2013 Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective will be added sometime soon. Yet, in addition to the calendar are two key areas of interest we want to cover today: Japan and the degree to which the Equities psychology remains very positive in spite of some obvious headwinds.

First of all, the combined Bank of Japan and Japanese government anti-deflation program announced today is as breathtaking in its scope as it is quirky in its implementation. If they are so committed to ensuring the inflation rate ramps up to 2.0%, why are they deferring the extended additional asset purchase program until the beginning of next year? We suppose there is quite a bit of anticipatory psychology they expect to accomplish their ends without actually doing anything in the near-term.

Mr. Bernanke has shown how well that works on the Fed QE-Infinity program, so why wouldn’t Japan try it is well? Of course, the truly scary part is the degree to which they expect inflation to go from barely positive this year to something in the 3.0% area in 2014. That not only seems astounding as a prediction, but may well hold other risks to the Japanese government financing ability. They should be careful what they wish for.

Back to more mundane if still fairly exciting matters, the March S&P 500 future push above the 1,474.50 major September lead contract high. In essence amounts to the ‘jailbreak’ we had discussed in the Rohr-Blog US Equities Attempt a Jailbreakpost last Friday (in the wake of Thursday’s gap higher into that area.)

The bottom line is that in spite of this morning’s minor setback the bulls still own the trend unless and until the bears can get the market to Close back below last Thursday’s 1,470.70-1,465.60 gap higher. One of the key technical aspects that assisted Friday’s late session recovery was the inability of the bears to leverage the weak Michigan Sentiment number, as the March S&P 500 future held exactly at the 1,470.70 top of that gap. 

Click on Chart to enlarge

Click on Chart to enlarge

And in spite of our skepticism toward the equities across the first quarter, that all fits in very nicely with the broader technical projections allowing a move up to the low 1,500 area prior to the lead contract S&P 500 future being overbought once again. It is all about the confluence of factors we discussed in the previous Thursday’s (Jan. 10) Might US Equities Attempt a Jailbreak? post.

Once the equities demonstrate that the bears will not likely be able to force a Close back below last Thursday’s 1,470.70-1,465.60 gap higher, the path of least resistance becomes up; at least until they hit the next significant threshold.

We laid out the theory and practice behind that in a bit of a broader analytic psychology as to why the equities could continue lower in late 2008 in spite of how far they had already fallen. It all has to do with the combined perspective of Sherlock Holmes and Dynamic Disequilibrium

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2012/09/21: Quick Post: Courtesy Brief Update: ‘Buzz Lightyear’ Bernanke

September 21, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Short & Sweet again on the specific market comments in this post, because yesterday’s TrendView Brief Update is a pointed discussion of the most important trend implications of the seemingly ever-expanding quantitative easing efforts. From a technical trend perspective there is the very orderly and limited correction of the December S&P 500 future after last week’s explosive, QE-driven rally.

In light of the negative balance in the economic data this week (especially out of Europe and China), it is surely the confidence in the volume (if not the net effectiveness) of quantitative easing efforts that helps to underpin the equities rally. Other central banks either joined the party (Bank of Japan on Wednesday) or reaffirmed their commitment to monetary largesse this week. Of course, all that is occurring under the cover of leading ‘easy money’ guru Ben Bernanke, who is nothing less than the ‘Buzz Lightyear’ of quantitative easing: “To infinity and beyond.”

And for now he seems to have carried the day in spite of the relatively limited potential for rewards and significant risks accompanying this highly aggressive further liquidity expansion policy. We will have much more for you on that from highly respected sources early next week. But in the meantime…

 

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