Posts Tagged ‘Ambush’

2012/11/22: Happy Thanksgiving with NO Ambush

November 22, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Happy Thanksgiving to all of our US readers, with thanks especially for the lack of any big time volatile swing in the wake of an ambush today.

Let’s begin by allowing that there is typically only a marginal chance something will change radically on a surprise in one major financial center while another major center is closed for a holiday. That said, it has happened during some past instances. Tuesday’s Summary Perspective (available via the right hand column link) includes a brief discussion of how the US bond bears were ambushed in early November 2004. Back then the US bonds were under pressure near a critical low.

Yet on the November 11th Veteran’s Day holiday (also a Thursday) the German Bund saw some very weak German news that extended its rally to a significant new high. That deferred a broader US bond selloff for four months. In the event this time around the potential for Chinese and Euro-zone Advance PMI’s released today was certainly a concern for the recent equities rally back from a significant selloff. Yet, in the event they were constructive enough to allow equities to advance the last several days’ bid.

So no ambush this time, except…

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2012/11/20: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar and Perspective: All as expected on equities rally from support

November 20, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar along with the Weekly Summary Perspective are available through the links in the right hand column. The Perspective sums up what has been the anticipated reaction to the more cooperative tone of US Fiscal Cliff negotiations convened by the President at the end of last week. As was easy to surmise, both sides of the otherwise highly partisan US Congress were interested in appearing more reasonable. And then the equities were allowed to assume the best as Congress pulled that great European summer holiday trick: they left town. It could just as easily have been August in Europe instead of Thanksgiving in the US.

That came along with somewhat better US data (especially housing) and funding for Greece, which was enough to bring in a very sharp equities relief rally yesterday.  That sent the December S&P 500 future gapping up from last week’s test of 1,350 area back up to the 1,387 Tolerance of the 1,400 area overall congestion. And that is how the “worst case scenario” ending up getting turned around into the sharp rally.

At least for now…

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