Home > Uncategorized > 2013/10/18: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income, FX

2013/10/18: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income, FX

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, October 18, 2013 (As of Thursday’s US Close)

131017_EQ_FIXED_1530EQUITIES & FIXED INCOME

The TrendView Video is from after Thursday’s US Close. Yet it remains very relevant for the trend evolution in the various asset classes beyond the initial reactions to the critical resolution of the immediate budget and Debt Ceiling problems, as were fully reviewed in Thursday morning’s Global TrendView Video. We refer you back to that for a more extensive review of the trend tendencies that have indeed works out as expected through the balance of the day yesterday into this morning.

But for now, the timeline of the current video analysis is macro factors discussion until the December S&P 500 future at 01:40, mention of the foreign exchange at 04:10, December T-note future with mention of other govvies at 04:50, and a brief return to the key short-term factors for the December S&P 500 future at 06:25.

The Current Rohr Technical Projections Key Levels & Select Comments are available via the link in the right-hand sidebar.

General Market Observations

Not a huge surprise that the equities had pushed up further yesterday in anticipation of prospects for moving a bill through Congress that resolved the US budget and Debt Ceiling impasse. All the reasons for that were reviewed in previous posts over the past several days. The bottom line is that the right wing Republicans finally realized what their more adept party members told them at the outset of their attempt to repeal Obamacare as part of a budget negotiation: it wasn’t going to work, and it was ultimately going to damage The Republican Party.

For whatever reason (and we laid out one of the most critical at the end of Tuesday’s Commentary), they finally decided to stand down. Yet this is not a panacea for the markets. As the compromise coming out of the Senate only sustains the budget funding into January and the Debt Ceiling into February, we can expect quite a bit more politicking into late this year. And along with the not insignificant damage the 16-day shutdown has wreaked on the US economy, that will no doubt still affect the markets.

December S&P 500 future overrunning that Exhaustion Gap it is signaling that the 1,695-88 area is now support (i.e. Negated resistance), and for all manner of reasons reviewed in recent TrendView Videos it was now eminently entitled to revisit or exceed the 1,730 previous lead contract high from back in mid-September.

EXTENDED TREND IMPLICATIONS

The bottom line is that the end of the US government budget and Debt Ceiling impasse has resulted in not surprising further strength of the equities that leaves the December S&P 500 future up into the critical 1,730-35 area. That is around to slightly above the mid-September 1,730 FOMC surprise ‘no taper’ surge as well as key weekly oscillator resistance this side of the 1,760 area. And rather than foment weakness in the wake of the US shutdown impacting Q4 GDP, it has raised visions of a major Fed QE extension from the bulls.

However, that same weakening of Q4 GDP has also allowed the govvies to rally once again in the face of equities strength (the classic real world response versus the ‘anticipation’ in the equities.) That has also weakened the US dollar quite a bit, even though some had expected it to rise with the equities after weakening with them into early this month. Obviously an evolving intermarket influence dynamic.   

The balance remains much the same as yesterday’s fresh update of the Current Rohr Technical Projections – Key Levels & Select Comments available via the link near the top of the right-hand column.

Thanks for your interest.

p.s. As we are just back to blogging after a lengthy hiatus, some of the information on the blog is a bit dated. We will be clearing that up soon, and all of the current critical information (Calendar, Perspective, Technical Projections) is up to date.

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