Home > Uncategorized > 2013/10/16: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income, FX (early)

2013/10/16: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income, FX (early)

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, October 16, 2013 (Early Day)

131016_SPZ60_GLOBAL_0800EQUITIES & FIXED INCOME

While the TrendView Video is from prior to the US equities opening this morning and S&P 500 future Regular Trading Hours, they remain very relevant for the trend decisions into the critical Washington DC activity today. The timeline of the Equities and Fixed Income portion of the video opens with the typical discussion of macro (i.e. politico-economic) factors shifting into discussion of the short-term and intermediate-term view of the December S&P 500 future at 03:10, with the other equities from 08:15, with govvies analysis beginning at 10:30, and short money forwards from 14:35. The foreign exchange timeline is noted below.

The Weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective is now available via the right-hand sidebar link

FOREIGN EXCHANGE timeline below.

  

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

The Foreign Exchange section of the video opens with the US Dollar Index at 15:25, moving onto Europe at 16:15, Asia at 17:20, and analysis of the cross-rates at 18:05 prior to a brief return to December S&P 500 future at 20:15.

General Market Observations

Not a huge surprise that the equities have spiked up this morning on the better prospects for moving a bill through Congress that resolves the US budget and Debt Ceiling impasse. All the reasons for that have already been reviewed in previous posts over the past several days. The bottom line is that the right wing Republicans have finally realized what their more adept party members told them at the outset of their attempt to repeal Obamacare as part of a budget negotiation: it wasn’t going to work, and it was ultimately going to damage The Republican Party.

For whatever reason (and we laid out one of the most critical in yesterday’s Commentary), they have decided to finally stand down. Yet this is not a panacea for the markets. As the compromise coming out of the Senate only sustains the budget funding into January and the Debt Ceiling into February, we can expect quite a bit more politicking into late this year. And that will no doubt still affect the markets.

December S&P 500 future overrunning that Exhaustion Gap it is signaling that the 1,695-88 area is now support (i.e. Negated resistance), and for all manner of reasons reviewed in the TrendView Video it is now entitled to revisit or exceed the 1,730 previous lead contract high from back in mid-September.

EXTENDED TREND IMPLICATIONS

The other equities were also up above key resistances once again, like strong sister DAX gapping above its 8,770 high with oscillator resistance not until the 8,900 area, FTSE somewhat above 6,400 yet still struggling with the 6,500-30 area, and the NIKKEI back up to only test the 14,400-14,500 congestion, likely circumspect pending a definitive outcome of the US Congress’ shenanigans.

The stronger December US T-note future has still held no worse than the low end of 126-00/125-21 near term support. Yet that remains critical for the other primary government bond markets which have been a bit weaker than the US. The December Gilt future finally slid below held its 110.20-109.84 support and is already down into 109.20-108.75 support. Next lower support is the 108.00 and especially 107.50. It is the same for the previous strong sister December Bund future unable to maintain recent rallies above 140.10-.30, and now slipping below 139.60 Tolerance of that area. Already down to the 139.00 area, next supports are the major 138.41 September 2012 low and the 138.00-137.60 area. That said, govvies are likely to be buffered by the economic weakness created by the US government shutdown affects on other businesses as well (not to mention the general psychology.)

And the foreign exchange still seems to be less than impressed by the strong equities activity as well. And that is likely at least as much due to the problem emanating from Washington DC previous, and the degree to which those shenanigans now weaken the previously leading US economy a bit even if a Debt Ceiling Debacle is avoided. The US Dollar Index has still only managed to squeeze up near the initial late-September .8065 ‘dead cat’ bounce. And that was from our long-anticipated test of the .8000 area in the wake of the FOMC Surprise, even if it also held the .7950 Tolerance of that area. There is also more formidable resistance waiting in the .8100 area.

That is consistent with EUR/USD only back hanging around 1.3500-1.3450 prior to pushing up again, GBP/USD even on a DOWN Break below 1.6000 not Closing below the low end 1.5950 support in that area (with even heavier support back at 1.5750-00), and AUD/USD still Closing higher each day since last Tuesday in spite of the US equities strength, and now attempting an escape above its key low-.9500 resistance. Next resistance above that is .9700.

The balance remains much the same as last Thursday’s Current Rohr Technical Projections – Key Levels & Select Comments available via the link near the top of the right-hand column.

Thanks for your interest.

p.s. As we are just back to blogging after a lengthy hiatus, some of the information on the blog is a bit dated. We will be clearing that up soon, and all of the current critical information (Calendar, Perspective, Technical Projections) is up to date.

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