Home > Uncategorized > 2013/10/14: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income, FX

2013/10/14: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income, FX

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Monday, October 14, 2013.

131011_EQ_FIXED_WKNDEQUITIES & FIXED INCOME

While the TrendView Videos are from after Friday’s US Close, they remain very relevant for the trend decisions into early this week based on the influence of the US budget and Debt Ceiling impasse. The timeline of the Equities and Fixed Income video opens with the typical discussion of macro (i.e. politico-economic) factors and short-term and intermediate-term view of the December S&P 500 future, with the other equities from 07:40, with govvies analysis beginning at 11:30, and short money forwards from 14:30, with a brief return to the December S&P 500 future from 17:00.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available via the right-hand sidebar link

FOREIGN EXCHANGE Analysis and Outlook below.

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Monday, October 14, 2013.

131011_FX_WKND

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

The Foreign Exchange video opens with a brief mention of macro factors and the US Dollar Index, moving onto Europe at 03:25, Asia at 05:40, and analysis of the cross-rates at 07:40 prior to a brief return to the US Dollar Index at 12:25.

General Market Observations

Not a big surprise that the equities weakened again after the hopeful US budget and Debt Ceiling negotiations of Friday morning reverted to confrontation over the weekend. All the reasons for that are better reserved for a Commentary later this morning. Yet the market response as of Sunday evening was clear. The reason that the weakness was likely to carry over into Monday is that in its infinite wisdom the US House of Representatives decided to take off work for the Columbus Day holiday on today. Therefore, other than ad hoc communication there will be no discussions.

As such, it was very interesting that after the December S&P 500 future rallied back so well as to overrun the top of the 1,688-1,695 weekly Exhaustion Gap Top it is right back below the top of it this morning. Not necessarily a huge surprise if the reason for any further immediate buying had dissipated since Friday. While the interim level at 1,685 might be interesting, if the negotiations really appear stalled once the House returns on Tuesday, the 1,673-67 area is likely to be retested or broken once again as well.

EXTENDED TREND IMPLICATIONS

The other equities were also up above key resistances once again, like strong sister DAX above the mid-upper 8,600 area, FTSE somewhat above 6,400 yet still no better than the 6,500 area, and the NIKKEI back up to only test the 14,400-14,500 congestion prior to back tracking.    

The stronger December US T-note future (likely due to it being the direct target of the Fed’s ‘no taper’ surprise) has pushed above 126-00, with latitude to hit the low-mid 127-00 area as more critical resistance. And even in the face of the equities rally it held no worse than the low end of 126-00/125-21 near term support. The December Gilt future also held into its 110.20-109.84 support after pushing into the upper-110.00 area again last Wednesday. Yet much like the T-note, its more critical higher resistance is up into the mid-111.00. Same for the other strong sister December Bund future unable to maintain recent rallies above 140.10-.30, yet holding around its 139.60 Tolerance of that area late last week. However, here as well the more critical resistance is up into the hefty interim 141.00-.30 range that was tested so many times since August 2012 prior to giving way (along with the 140.00 area) in early September.

And the foreign exchange seemed to be less than impressed by the strong late week equities activity as well. And that is likely at least as much due to the problem emanating from Washington DC as any ‘country’ factors. As we have noted quite often of late, the weakness of equities weighing on the US Dollar Index only tends to occur when the US is the source of the problem… like now!! After an initial ‘dead cat’ bounce from our long-anticipated test of the .8000 area in the wake of the FOMC Surprise, it held the .7950 Tolerance of that area. However, it was not able to even get back to the initial .8065 minor bounce high from three weeks ago; and there is more formidable resistance waiting in the .8100 area.

That is consistent with EUR/USD only back hanging around 1.3500-1.3450 prior to pushing up again, GBP/USD even on a DOWN Break below 1.6000 not Closing below the low end 1.5950 support in that area (with even heavier support back at 1.5750-00), and AUD/USD still Closing higher each day since last Tuesday in spite of the US equities strength, remaining near the next key low-.9500 resistance.

The balance remains much the same as last Thursday’s Current Rohr Technical Projections – Key Levels & Select Comments available via the link near the top of the right-hand column.

Thanks for your interest.

p.s. As we are just back to blogging after a lengthy hiatus, some of the information on the blog is a bit dated. We will be clearing that up soon, and all of the current critical information (Calendar, Perspective, Technical Projections) is up to date.

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