Home > Uncategorized > 2013/10/11: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities with Comments

2013/10/11: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities with Comments

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, October 11, 2013.



The TrendView Video from after Thursday’s US Close is exclusively on the December S&P 500 future, yet with discussion of the macro factors which drove today’s explosive rally blended in with technical trend evolution discussion in the opening section. There is also mention of the trend developments in the other equities from 07:25, govvies at 08:05, and foreign exchange commencing at 09:05, with brief return to the December S&P 500 future setup into the important weekly Close ideas at 10:30.

The freshly updated Current Rohr Technical Projections Key Levels & Select Comments are also available via the link in the right-hand sidebar.


General Market Observations

Of note, even yesterday’s explosive US Debt Ceiling impasse relief rally in the December S&P 500 future did not seem to be reflected in the response of the other asset classes. Those might have been expected to have more of a reaction to what would otherwise be interpreted as a return to a bull equities trend in the US and elsewhere. While we will need to see how that evolves later today, the resilience of the govvies and lack of any sort of impressive strength in the US dollar might be sending a different message on the overall strength of the economy… and ultimately the prospects for the equity markets as well. We shall see.

The bottom line is the December S&P 500 future 1,672 short-term UP Break yesterday morning which should be support on any near term setback (see the video for the specific channel projection.)  Yet that has so far only propelled the market back up to the important 1,685 interim failure level, with the more important 1,695 top of the recent weekly Exhaustion Gap above that. It is going to be very interesting to see if equities can maintain the sort of extensive strength seen on the initial possible avoidance of a US government default in the wake of whatever ‘deal’ the Administration and Congress fashion.

For the additional global multi-asset class views, we suggest a look at yesterday morning’s very extensive global perspective in the TrendView Videos for Equities and Govvies and the separate Foreign Exchange analysis. And once again, it is interesting just how consistent the analysis of the other asset classes remains with our assessment prior to yesterday’s explosive US equities rally.


In the event the December T-note future would need to post a daily Close below the low end of the 126-00/125-21 congestion we have been highlighting for some time to demonstrate any penchant for sustained weakness. And it is back above that area instead in the wake of a great long-dated US T-bond auction yesterday in spite of the equities surge.  That is consistent with the December Gilt future support into 110.20-109.80, and the December Bund future 139.60 level Tolerance below the more major 140.10-.30 area.

And the US Dollar Index is only up near its .8065 late September reaction high, much less anywhere near heftier .8100 congestion. That is consistent with EUR/USD hanging tough back around 1.3500-1.3450, GBP/USD even on a DOWN Break below 1.6000 area not violating the extended range of support that includes 1.5950 (and also having major support back at 1.5750-00 if it slips further), and AUD/USD still higher on the day yesterday being able to remain up near its next key .9500 area resistance.

It all still feels a bit tentative on any sort of upbeat economic psychology in spite of yesterday’s sharp spike higher in the US equities, which will call for additional assessment as we head into the weekend psych today. The balance is covered in the freshly updated Current Rohr Technical Projections – Key Levels & Select Comments, available via the link near the top of the right-hand column.

Thanks for your interest.

p.s. As we are just back to blogging after a lengthy hiatus, some of the information on the blog is a bit dated. We will be clearing that up soon, and all of the current critical information (Calendar, Perspective, Technical Projections) is up to date.

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