Home > Uncategorized > 2013/10/10: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income, FX

2013/10/10: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income, FX

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Current for Thursday, October 10, 2013.

131010_EQ_FIXED_0700

EQUITIES & FIXED INCOME

Both TrendView Videos are from this morning. The timeline of the Equities and Fixed Income video begins with macro influences, with the December S&P 500 future at 03:00, other equities at 07:15 shifting to govvies at 10:40, short money forwards at 14:40, and a brief return to S&P 500 at 17:00.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar and Summary Perspective are available via the right-hand sidebar link

FOREIGN EXCHANGE Analysis and Outlook below.

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Current for Thursday, October 10, 2013.

131010_FX_0800

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

The Foreign Exchange video begins with a bit of macro influence discussion along with the US Dollar Index, shifting over to Europe at 02:35, Asia at 04:40 and the cross rates at 06:30, with a brief return to the US Dollar Index at 09:30.

 

 

General Market Observations

▪ The sharp near term sentiment shift this morning is dependent on progress in the US situation to maintain this morning’s constructive psychology. In addition to the equities strength, it is interesting that the govvies have been so resilient so far, and the US dollar strength is also a bit subdued. The other equities are also only up to key resistances, like strong sister DAX back up into the mid-upper 8,600 area, FTSE somewhat back above 6,400 yet still lower on the week, and the NIKKEI back up near the 14,400-14,500 congestion.

There is already talk of ‘someone’ in Congress coming in on Tuesday (i.e. after the Columbus Day holiday) with a ‘clever plan’ to slash the US budget and Debt Ceiling impasse Gordian Knot. The only problem with that is the Congressional testimony we just heard from US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew that there is no way to adjust the computer payment programs to favor some payments over others. And besides, how do you even decide whether to pay bond holders in full while social security and food stamp payments are stopped?

Fair comment. So Mr. Lew has indicated the US government will simply stop all payments once it cannot make all payments. Under the circumstances this could be considered more of the gamesmanship which has plagued the lack of compromise. (Like the administration closing the memorial sites that were open air; and needing to spend money on creating barriers instead of just leaving them open.) Yet anyone who knows about reprogramming major systems knows what he said is actually true. It takes quite a bit of time, and is prone to malfunctions.

So where does this leave the market participants attempting to figure out whether the current equities and US dollar strength and govvies weakness is going to continue? Still trying to see which way the ‘curve’ is going to break. Much more on that baseball metaphor for attempting to fathom when the relief from the current US budget and Debt Ceiling impasse is going to be resolved in Tuesday evening’s Summary Perspective (available via the link in the right-hand sidebar.) As noted on page 3 of that report, as and when the US budget and Debt Ceiling impasse is addressed, equities are likely to rebound sharply. And the US dollar will follow suit along with pressure on fixed income. Yet, that relief is yet to be fully confirmed. While the December S&P 500 future is on an UP Break above 1,673 key short-term down channel resistance, whether that maintains into tomorrow’s Close will be the real test. There’s the specific technical rub.

EXTENDED TREND IMPLICATIONS

In the event the December T-note future would need to post a daily Close below the low end of the 126-00/125-21 congestion we have been highlighting for some time to demonstrate any penchant for sustained weakness. That is consistent with the December Gilt future support into 110.20-109.80, and the December Bund future 139.60 level.

And the US Dollar Index is only up near its .8065 late September reaction high, much less anywhere near heftier .8100 congestion. That is consistent with EUR/USD only back hanging around 1.3500-1.3450, GBP/USD even on a DOWN Break below 1.6000 area having support back at 1.5750-00, and AUD/USD still higher on the day, remaining near .9500.

It all still feels a bit tentative in spite of the sharp spike higher in the US equities today, which will call for additional assessment as we head into the weekend psych tomorrow. The balance remains much the same as last week’s Current Rohr Technical Projections – Key Levels & Select Comments available via the link near the top of the right-hand column. Those will be updated after the US Close today in preparation for what may be a very interesting finish this week if there is no CR compromise.

Thanks for your interest.

p.s. As we are just back to blogging after a lengthy hiatus, some of the information on the blog is a bit dated. We will be clearing that up soon, and all of the current critical information (Calendar, Perspective, Technical Projections) is up to date.

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