Home > Uncategorized > 2013/10/09: Commentary: NFIB still weak and ‘Shutdown vs. Miley’!!

2013/10/09: Commentary: NFIB still weak and ‘Shutdown vs. Miley’!!

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COMMENTARY: Wednesday, October 9, 2013.

CNBC-NFIBdunkelbergOPTdown-131008 Holding steady is NOT success on the National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Survey. This was brought home in Tuesday morning’s CNBC discussion with respected NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg.

With business conditions declining by eight points and earnings trends down, there is only marginal evidence for any improvement in the components that of held up. When asked what he thought of all this, Dunkelberg was very clear on the cyclical disconnect. He noted, “Well, we’re still in the trading range so to speak. We haven’t been able to breakout of the 95 area (on the Small Business Confidence) Index…” (more from Dunkelberg and the ‘Shutdown vs. Miley’ observation below.)

The Weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective is available via the link in the right-hand sidebar.

The conclusion of Dunkelberg’s pointed comments was,  “Just to put it in perspective, going into the recession… …into 2008 the average on the Index was 100 and change. And here we are at 94. In a good expansion like 1983, which was a great year, you’d be up 105, 106, 107 with the numbers, and we’re so far away from that.

What could we possibly add? All we hear repeatedly from the Obama administration is everything they are doing with the ‘programs’ to assist small business. Maybe the ultimate program is to just get out of the way with all the higher personal taxation, payroll taxes, regulation and, oh yes, Obamacare.

And this is relevant right in front of today’s FOMC meeting minutes release, because it points up the degree to which the weakness of the equities may be more well-deserved than the sentiment ‘this is just a temporary dislocation’ might allow. We will not know for certain until after the US impasse has been resolved, but it is interesting that the small business engine of jobs growth is still stalled this far into an alleged US economic expansion.


131007-ZHedge-MILEYvsSHUTDOWNWe have noted for years now that Americans get the government they deserve. As revisited at the end of last Friday’s post “the incredibly uninformed and significantly disaffected American electorate isn’t going to remember how either party characterized things back then. Heck that was a year ago…” …they’d rather focus on things like American Idol and Survivor… and note the graphs on the left. Then again, maybe it’s not just us anymore. Except at least the rest of the world is fixated on technology rather than pure electronic voyeurism.

But if you shut down the parks and they see people getting laid off, well, now you’ve got the Americans’ attention. Reminds us of the old adage about negotiating with a mule… first take a god-sized piece of lumber and smash it in the nose. Now that you’ve got its attention…

Thanks for your interest.

p.s. As we are just back to blogging after a lengthy hiatus, some of the information on the blog is a bit dated. We will be clearing that up soon, and all of the current critical information (Calendar, Perspective, Technical Projections) is up to date.

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