Home > Uncategorized > 2013/09/30 Early: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed, FX

2013/09/30 Early: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed, FX

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VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Early Analysis for Monday, September 30, 2013.

 130927_EQ_FIXED_1530

 EQUITIES & FIXED INCOME

The timeline of the Equities and Fixed Income video opens with some of the macro (i.e. fundamental) considerations for this week that are very robust, and a bit different than the typical first week of the month. It continues with the typical short-term and intermediate-term view of the S&P 500 future from 01:15, the other equities from 06:45, with govvies analysis beginning at 08:35, and short money forwards from 13:55 with a brief return to the S&P 500 future at 17:00. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE Analysis and Outlook below.

 

VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Early Analysis for Monday, September 30, 2013.

130927_FX_1800

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

The Foreign Exchange video (http://bit.ly/17iw6v1) timeline opens with a brief mention of macro factors that refers back to the opening of the Equities and Fixed Income video, moving on to the US Dollar Index at 01:35, then Europe at 02:40, Asia at 04:55, and analysis of the cross-rates at 06:55 prior to a brief return to the US Dollar Index at 11:00.

General Market Observations

The weakness of the December S&P 500 future below key 1,682-78 support indicates a more extensive slide, with likely effect on other asset classes. Of course, that was because the Senate Democrats restored the healthcare reform funding as part of passing the bill, and the House Republicans sent back a version with somewhat softened amendments (i.e. short of the full repeal of Obamacare.)

EXTENDED TREND IMPLICATIONS

The bottom line for us remains much the same as discussed last week. While equities weakness generally tends to be supportive of the US dollar on a haven bid when the world appears fraught, when the US is the source of the problem the greenback can suffer against the other currencies.

While the most pronounced overnight weakness was against the Japanese yen, that is spreading against other currencies as well. And with the December  S&P 500 future violating its 1,682-78 support we suspected would be the case without a miraculous meeting of US Congressional and administration minds, reaching its interim 1,673-69 support is likely only be the first leg of a more extensive selloff. Of course, all of that will likely be to the benefit of the govvies, even if a temporary displacement.

Thanks for your interest.

p.s. As we are just back to blogging after a lengthy hiatus, some of the information on the blog is a bit dated. We will be clearing that up soon, and all of the current critical information (Calendar, Perspective, Technical Projections) is up to date.

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