Home > Uncategorized > 2013/09/24: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities

2013/09/24: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: After Market Analysis for Monday, September 23, 2013.

 130923_SPZ_6030

EQUITIES

The video timeline opens as usual with December S&P 500 future, and is significantly devoted to that contract alone this time. That is due to the prominent role the next swing in the equities will likely play in all of the other asset classes. That said, there is some discussion of the other markets that relates to the S&P 500 decision. That includes the other equities from 08:25, with mention of govvies tendencies beginning at 08:40, macro factors (fundamental influences) at 09:05 and foreign exchange at 09:25, and a brief return to the short-term December S&P 500 future from 10:05.

 

General Market Observations

The video analysis highlights the macro-technical aspect of where the slide in the December S&P 500 future (which has already fallen from 1,723.50 to the 1,690 area) might actually be more critical into the 1,682 area. That was the Close on Friday the 13th. That turned out to be more bad luck for equities bears than bulls, as over that weekend was the Larry Summers’ withdrawal from the race for next Fed Chairman.

And the psychology which was exacerbated last Wednesday on the FOMC ‘No Taper’ Surprise was only a radical extension of the major accommodative psychology generated by the Summers’ announcement. As such, it would be surprising to see December S&P 500 future back below 1,682 if the Fed QE is still a big determinant of the strength of the economy and equities… or not!!

EXTENDED TREND IMPLICATIONS

As important is the return to more counterpoint in the equities and govvies trends after last Wednesday’s mutual explosion. That is the classical tendency, and December T-note future that had dropped so much further than the Gilt and especially the Bund in mid-June, has traded back up to failed congestion and major Fibonacci support in the 126-00 area. As it happens, there is extended resistance on the lead contract (December as of last Thursday) chart anywhere up into the 127-00 area as well. So proper assessment of that split resistance likely requires a clear idea of how the equities decision is proceeding at support.

Similarly the previously stronger December Bund future that had played downside ‘catch up’ in the wake of the (typically early) September contract expiration three weeks ago managed to rally back above its 138.41 violated major lead contract low from September 2012. Once again, the extended resistance it neared on the rally last week is more so at major failed congestion in the 138.60-140.00; with extended resistance up into the 141.00 area.

As is the case for weak sister December Gilt future that is suffering under the perspective from last week’s upbeat BoE minutes and discount in December future (lead contract after September expires Thursday.) Even with the extended influence of the continued US QE, it has only just rallied back above the 119.15 violated major Fibonacci and congestion support. Yet it also has further resistance in the upper-109.00 to low-110.00 area (congestion and violated Fibonacci supports.)  

▪ The foreign exchange remains more of a muddle, yet where the weakness of equities has reinvigorated a US Dollar Index which had sunk to the (long-anticipated) test of the .8000 area in the wake of last Wednesday’s FOMC Surprise. That neither makes it a bull trend right away, nor completely reverses the strength of other currencies against it. However, it is reasonable to believe the other currencies might take a bit more of a breather after doing well in the context of the improving global economic view that is a more problematic. Especially note the EUR/USD slippage back below 1.3500 (next support 1.3350-00), and GBP/USD below 1.6000 (next support 1.5750-00.)

AUD/USD is also back down to violated resistance in the .9350-00 area after testing .9500 resistance on last week’s US dollar weakness, with the only outlier being the strength of the Japanese yen on USD/JPY slipping below 98.80 once again (even if that is very much a trading range affair of late.) There is much more discussion of the dynamic of the equities, govvies and foreign exchange that includes review of the cross rates and specific technical indications in the end of week videos from last week (posted yesterday morning.)

Thanks for your interest.

p.s. As we are just back to blogging after a lengthy hiatus, some of the information on the blog is a bit dated. We will be clearing that up soon, and all of the current critical information (Calendar, Perspective, Technical Projections) is up to date.

 

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