Home > Uncategorized > 2013/09/19: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities & Govvies

2013/09/19: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities & Govvies

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: After Market Analysis for Thursday, September 19, 2013

We have received extensive constructive feedback on our Video Trend Analysis and Outlook.  And in response to a significant number of requests, we are going to be splitting our blog posts into ‘TrendView’ with Videos and text-based analyses on one hand, and Commentary on the other.

The sentiment is that the TrendView analysis should not take a back seat (i.e. follow) to the often extensive Commentary. We appreciate this direction from you, and have begun after today’s US Close with a TrendView Video and brief bit of text-based Analysis and Outlook. We look forward to your feedback, and hope you find this evening’s analysis useful.

SPZ_130919_6030

The video timeline opens as usual with S&P 500 future, and then the govvies analysis beginning at 06:45 with some important futures expiration observations, and a return to the S&P 500 future for a final key short-term consideration at 16:40. And that’s it for this analysis with further comments below. This is an important follow up to previous views on the sharp reactions to the surprise lack of QE tapering by the FOMC.

General Market Observations

The December S&P 500 future push above psychological and technical resistance at the early-August 1,705 high is impressive, as that was interim weekly oscillator resistance. For now it is most interesting it has already tested the key 1,725-30 area resistance even prior to its shift to lead futures on Today’s September contract expiration at today’s Close. It is a more major weekly oscillator threshold (MA-41 plus 135-140), and much above 1,725-30 the 1,750-55 area might be a likely next target. Of course the area around the early-August 1,705 lead contract trading high should be support on any retracement.

EXTENDED TREND IMPLICATIONS

As the govvies were already reviewed at length in yesterday’s write up and are also a major focal point of today’s video, we will refer you to that analysis. However, the quick comments on the foreign exchange are relevant.

In the first instance, we have been waiting for the US Dollar Index to test the .8000 area support for a while, and that was consistent with our recent expectations for other currencies to continue to improve against it. However, the activity now is likely to be that the greenback has done it by testing that area. Resistance begins at .8100, yet intensifies into the upper-.8100 area.

The EUR/USD has also run up slightly above the 1.3500 area Fibonacci and congestion resistance, and it is imperative that it hold it on any minor pullback or it might slip right back to 1.3350-00 area. That is consistent with how it acted after not holding up above 1.3350-00 area on the spill temporarily back down below 1.3250-00.

Similarly GBP/USD did a fine job of accelerating up above 1.6000, yet needs to hold any pullback or risk slipping back for another test of 1.5750-00. While they are very different trends, that is also consistent with the AUD/USD push up and failure at the fresh .9500 Fibonacci retracement, with multiple supports (congestion, UP break, Fibonacci) in the .9300 area. And it was also of note that USD/JPY flashed only the most temporary up channel DOWN Break below the 98.80 area on Wednesday and took it away immediately today (with a push up to 99.50.) So at least in the near term, it is possible the US dollar can improve further, especially if the heavily weighted euro ends up sending EUR/USD back below 1.3500.

Thanks for your interest.

p.s. As we are just back to blogging after a lengthy hiatus, some of the information on the blog is a bit dated. We will be clearing that up soon, and all of the current critical information (Calendar, Perspective, Technical Projections) is up to date.

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