Home > Uncategorized > 2013/01/23: Quick Post: The Great Dissembler triumphs again

2013/01/23: Quick Post: The Great Dissembler triumphs again

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The weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Calendar has also been available since yesterday. And the continuing contradiction remains between fundamental influences that remain weaker than expected in some cases yet with technical trend activity which remains quite firm.

However, that is not such a huge surprise since the March S&P 500 future pulled off the ‘jailbreak’ above 1,474.50 last Friday (i.e. also a weekly Close) we had been discussing as a potential over the past several weeks. With a range of key technical indications (i.e. one of our classical ‘confluences’) pointing to next significant psychological and technical resistances not until 1,510 and 1,526, it is normal for the market to shrug off negative news until it gets closer to those levels.

After that, some of the problems which the equities are so happy to blithely ignore at present may come back to haunt the developed economies in spite of the generally upbeat psychology at present. And in our humble view, one manifestation of the sorts of problems that might well represent a real economic and market headwind came out of a less than obvious source: Secretary of State Clinton’s illness-delayed appearance before the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

It was obviously less of any sort of direct economic or market influence, and more so a clear indication of the utter inability of most folks in the US Congress, even the ostensibly very smart ones, to follow up on a line of reasoning. And there was one particularly interesting exchange and aftermath.

That was Mrs. Clinton’s emotional outburst in response to Senator Ron Johnson (one of those really smart folks in Congress) pointedly questioning her on the degree to which the Administration clung to its lame (and completely unsupported) claim that the Benghazi attack sprung spontaneously from a previously orderly demonstration. Just for the record (and edification of anyone who just came out of a several month coma), there was no evidence whatsoever of any demonstration at all prior to a very well-coordinated attack on the US facility.

That is in no way intended as a partisan criticism. As it is eminently clear that no additional critical information of any sort came out of this important hearing, there is plenty of failure on both sides that informs an even more depressing view than any failure to get to the truth behind the Administration’s disinformation policy how’s and why’s: neither side of the US political divide is capable of critical pursuit of information, as they are all much more interested in spouting sound bite fodder for their next set of election campaign ads… or so it seems.  

Hiilary's Hardline Hissy-fit

Hillary’s Hardline Hissy-fit

Mrs. Clinton’s fit of pique with Senator Johnson’s pointed discussion and inquiry is a wonderful case in point. As you hear her respond that it really doesn’t make a difference whether the attack sprung from a demonstration or “…guys out for a walk one night who decided they’d go kill some Americans…”, keep one thing in mind: Nobody ever asserted that latter was the case. And in taking that line, one of the Great Dissemblers (right along with husband Bill) of US and likely global politics won the day.

And for anyone who is unfamiliar with the term ‘dissemble’ it means, “To disguise or conceal behind a false appearance, or alternatively to make a false show.” Well, it seems we have a wonderful example of both here.

 

 

 

The false show was a fit of pique over what was a reasonable question about why America (and the world) was fed serial falsehoods about a situation that the Administration certainly knew was not the case (there were security camera videos), and that false appearance was to state a totally specious alternative (“guys out for a walk”) that defused any discussion of the reality of that well planned and executed attack.

The relevant and meaningful response to that from Sen. Johnson should have been that this was not the case, and there IS a difference between a demonstration and a well-planned attack by a heavily armed team. That was the real issue. And what did we get? Nothing. And that was after the Republicans had reams of additional time the Secretary was provided due to her recent health issues.

Yet again, we must get back to thinking about how this relates to official policy that must evolve markedly to address major fiscal and economic issues. Using this Senate hearing as a proxy for the current state of the process, what is it anybody expects these folks to accomplish?

They were not even able glean any further useful information, and especially follow up on one of the most obvious critical points on the issues surrounding the death of an American ambassador and three others. How can they be expected to come out from behind the partisan sound bite parapets to address key fiscal and regulatory issues that will become more pressing across time?

In spite of allowing that equities can rally in the early part of the year on positive feelings due to Fiscal Cliff avoidance and a bit less crisis stress in Europe, we do not think for a moment that we have seen the last of those sorts of failures. In addition to what is going on (or more accurately failing to occur) in the US, there is also the issue of the European Commission reverting back to requiring bank rescues be heavily funded by sovereigns instead of directly by the European rescue funds.

It will likely be a lot more interesting, which is to say challenging, than the Pollyanna’s purport at present…

…even if we are happy to give equities their due in the current rally extending for now.

 

General Market Observations and EXTENDED TREND IMPLICATIONS are much the same as Tuesday’s Calendar, Japan and ‘Sherlock Holmes’ Equities Psych post, with its extensive discussion of the reasons the equities psychology is strong if by nothing else than process of elimination of any downside potential right now. There are also the in depth reviews of govvies resistance levels in spite of their impressive resilience during the equities rally, and the highly varied foreign exchange picture.

Thanks for your interest.

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