Home > Uncategorized > 2012/11/06: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar and Brief Update access on US election pollsters really wrong in some ways

2012/11/06: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar and Brief Update access on US election pollsters really wrong in some ways

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. The Summary Perspective will available later today in deference to wanting to wait for today’s US market Close to update the technical projections in front of tomorrow’s election response. And whatever the election may bring, one thing is glaringly apparent as the Northeast continues to struggle with Super Storm Sandy’s aftermath…

…the counterintuitive ability of markets to anticipate the degree to which the rebuilding effort is a ‘GDP-positive’ event. That is to say our views on the positive market anticipation of the reconstruction and rehabilitation effort trumping the extreme human tragedy and near term economic damage have been vindicated. It will ultimately provide more of a bump to GDP that the loss of business from the downtime of the businesses waiting for replacement/repair of their buildings and equipment.

And now it’s on to the election follies. And we have covered that at some length in today’s institutional TrendView BRIEF UPDATE, we will leave it for you to decide whether the more aggressive polling organizations and analysts have it right. And whichever side prevails in the race for the White House, there is a case to be made the market response might seem a bit perverse because…

 

…the near-term impact of each contender’s policies is distinctly opposite its likely intermediate to long-term impact. While there is quite a bit more in the actual analysis, the bottom line is that Mr. Obama’s spendthrift ways might be more positive in the near-term than Mr. Romney’s commitment to restore fiscal balance.

And there is quite a bit else on the degree to which there are going to be some extremely embarrassed folks in the political prediction community. Some of the most well respected figures on both sides have made rather radical calls of major victories for either candidate. Someone’s just got to be very wrong. There is some very good analysis of the polls from respected market research analysts at HEDGEYE, and a video of an extremely experienced and well regarded political operative who has just shifted his opinion over to Mr. Romney.

In addition to that we note the ultimate outcome that may be more so in line with the majority of pollsters, and that will be the most pernicious of all. There is one result with a reasonably high probability that is the most likely to send the US over the Fiscal Cliff early next year. So we hope you enjoy that bit of election analysis, and find the market observations useful as well.

Thanks for your interest.

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