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Archive for October, 2012

2012/10/30: Hurricane Sandy classically perverse economic influence

October 30, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

As we noted in the previous post’s mention of this aspect, there is a typically somewhat perverse influence of a major storm like Hurricane Sandy. It is so counterintuitive as to not be as clear cut as most folks would like to think. Anyone except serious market students who have been there before (like Irene and especially Katrina, etc.) are not necessarily prepared to look at all the carnage presented by the media and consider it is anything negative.

The only question now is whether this storm is the norm or a new form? And by that we mean the extensive damage (even more so by a major factor than last year’s Hurricane Irene) that is being incurred not just along the entire Northeastern seaboard, but the entire Northeast region. It is one thing for New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf coast to be slammed by Katrina. Might it be another matter altogether for the highly concentrated Northeast (as well as regions as far west as Pennsylvania and even Ohio) to be shut down for an extended period?

Maybe. But it in the final analysis it shouldn’t actually be an economic drag over horizons like 90-180 days because…

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2012/10/30: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar, Summary Perspective and Sandy classical (perverse) economic influence!!

October 30, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. The Summary Perspective is also available and still relevant… with its review of the typically somewhat perverse influence of a major storm like Hurricane Sandy. It is so counterintuitive as to bamboozle most folks who are not serious market students who have been there before (like Irene and especially Katrina), but…

There is a very good reason the equities have held up so well in the face of a human tragedy that includes massive economic carnage…

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2012/10/24: Weekly Perspective and Technicals available into critical market phase

October 24, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Very short and sweet today, because all of the perspective is still much the same as yesterday’s post on the idea that it is Probably NOT Equities Big Bust …Just Yet. Even though the equities gapped down Tuesday below important supports at the bottom of a six-week trading range, the more important trend decision areas remain below the market. In the first instance there is the old early September gap in the 1,400 area on the December S&P 500 future. And that includes a Tolerance level even somewhat lower than that.

Yet, the most important evolution in the background that has driven the market psychology is the weakness of corporate topline revenues. That psychological discussion on that is available in our Weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective (link in the right-hand sidebar), with Technicals updated through Tuesday’s US Close as well.

That reinforces all of the warnings from the bears (present company included) that the weaker global economy would not allow companies to endlessly ‘manufacture’ attractive profits from sheer cost-cutting alone. At some point the piper would need to be paid with the sort of sustained lower earnings expectations that had been anticipated for the third quarter; and now that moment seem to have arrived…

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2012/10/23: Quick Post: Courtesy Market Alert: Probably NOT Equities Big Bust …Just Yet

October 23, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Short & Sweet again on the specific market comments in this post, because today’s TrendView Market Alert is a pointed discussion of the most critical short-term technical area NOT being the (now violated) December S&P 500 future 1,430-20 range. In other words, there are lower supports which are more important… like the 1,400 area and its Tolerance in the 1,389-87 range, which was held on minor reactions when the market was on the way up into August and early September. It was also the heavier congestion on the way up into a temporary top in March-April. 

 

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2012/10/20: Quick Post: Just a brief reminder what it’s all about

October 20, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Using all of the varied fundamental and technical analysis sometimes seems to bog down into analysis overload. Of course, that means the art is in knowing which techniques and general deduction and/or inference have worked best in historic phases to cut through the extended analytic trees to get a relevant vision of the forest. Yet in spite of the effort required to use a broad range of insights, in the end it is worth it because…

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2012/10/18: Weekly Perspective into Equities signaled changing dynamic

October 18, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective is available through the link in the right hand column. The Technical Projections and Select Comments from last week are also available and still relevant… with the notable exception of the critical equities decision explored in the General Market Observations and EXTENDED TREND IMPLICATIONS below.

This is one of those weeks that saw equities benefit from the combined influence of the now well-established central-bank support along with somewhat better data. As it typically takes a couple of quarters for the central-bank actions to impact the various economies, it leads one to wonder whether the central bank actions were really all that necessary. However, in this case we must allow that the anticipation of worse things to come is enough of a psychological drag to justify at least some of the central-bank largesse. What is most interesting is not that the central bank and supra-national actions have created a ‘risk on’ psychology, but more so how little is being done about the underlying problems which caused the central banks to feel their massive involvement was necessary in the first place.

And those are apparent both in Europe and the US…  

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2012/10/16: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar and CRITICAL Equities turn!!

October 16, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. The Technical Projections and Select Comments from early last week are also available and still relevant… with the notable exception of the critical equities decision explored in the General Market Observations below. Those will also be reviewed at greater length that includes the other asset classes in this week’s Summary Perspective on Key Influences that will be posted later this evening. We hope you find that useful as well.

This is one of those weeks that actually began before it began, including some important Chinese economic data over the weekend that was noted in the calendar. However, also noted in the calendar was the far more important IMF and World Bank Group meetings over the weekend. That provided the real sense of comfort on the European situation that is so prominent in the sharp improvement of the equities market from the very top of this week. And in spite of all the interesting news yet to come that includes more Chinese data on Thursday, it looks like a significant decision to reflect a renewed ‘risk on’ mentality has already been taken by the equities.

Now it is just a matter of how far they proceed in the near-term before they react back down to the key lower levels…

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