Home > Uncategorized > 2012/09/25: Quick Post: Weekly Perspective available… end of month data and Europe focus

2012/09/25: Quick Post: Weekly Perspective available… end of month data and Europe focus

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Very short and sweet today, because all of the perspective is still much the same as our expectations last week that QE3 can give equities boost market boost, but does it help the global economy? Even though the equities spent all of last week in a more reactive mode on the downside, they are likely still good as long as they hold some key near-term lower supports.

The quarterly financial futures expiration rollovers are upon us again as well. The early month expiration of the German Bund future was followed last Wednesday by the US T-note and T-bond, as well as Thursday’s S&P 500 future expiration. All of which has an impact due to the discounts to the September contracts.

That said, this is another late week influence week…

 

 …and not just for the various European meetings and pronouncements. As the last week of the month, it sees all the typical major economic data for that period. And while yesterday’s German IFO, today’s US Housing and Consumer Confidence, and Wednesday’s US New Home Sales are of note, Thursday and Friday are still more prominent. Please use the link in the right-hand column to access this week’s Report & Event Summary Perspective for more on all of that as well as the technical trend psychology.

 General Market Observations

While questions remain over the effectiveness of the quantitative easing programs in preventing crisis in Europe or fomenting a stronger US recovery, for now the strength of the equities cannot be doubted. As noted early last week, they would be likely to hold the first pullback, and that is exactly what transpired on the recent December S&P 500 future tests of 1,445-40. All of the intermarket influences will remain in place as well.

The response of the primary government bond markets, foreign exchange, Gold and the other commodities is all as expected, even if the govvies have been a bit stronger than one might’ve expected in light of the sustained equities bid.

Extended Trend Implications

Primary government bonds broke important port levels like December Bund future in the 140.00 area, even though it has pushed back up to the top of that range at 140.50. Much above that it might be ready to test 141.00-.30 once again.

The US Dollar Index is rallying back up toward the major failed congestion in the .8000 area, and EUR/USD has only dipped slightly back below the important 1.3000-1.2950 range. That slippage is likely due to extra concerns about the lack of consensus on the next steps in the various European bailout efforts.

Thanks for your interest.

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