Home > Uncategorized > 2012/09/13: Quick Post: Pre-FOMC/Bernanke Fresh Tech Now Available

2012/09/13: Quick Post: Pre-FOMC/Bernanke Fresh Tech Now Available

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Less than an hour until the FOMC statement, and our next set of Technical Projections and Select Comments are already available via the link in the right hand column. We delayed updating these levels until today in order to adjust them as close as possible to the critical influence emanating from the FOMC statement, revised economic and interest-rate projections, and Chairman Bernanke’s press conference.

As we all knew from the top of this week that the Chairman’s discussion would likely be the most prominent influence, it is not really much of a surprise. And yet, the degree to which individual markets and all asset classes are now all indeed poised for bigger decisions into key technical levels is impressive nonetheless.

And all trend tendencies remain very consistent with views expressed previous. Anyone who has not already reviewed it is encouraged to read yesterday’s TrendView MARKET ALERT on the various critical psychologies (including some very interesting inconsistencies) and technical levels. The bottom line is that recent price swings have brought many asset classes to critical trend decision levels.

And even though the “To QE or not to QE…” deliberation leaves quite a few folks with a strong feeling “that is the question”…

…as regular readers know, we think that even any actual QE is so much falderal regarding actual assistance for the real economy. Yet it must still be watched closely for the potential ‘knee jerk” impact on the near term trend; such as a temporary boost it might provide equities and commodities, and pressure it brings onto the core government bonds and US dollar. We just need to wait for the actual market reactions.

General Market Observations

Not the least of those is the September S&P 500 future into the 1,440-45 lead contract resistance range. While there are a few interesting interim levels above that, the more important extended resistances are not until at least 1,510 and the next truly major congestion up that 1,526. So whether it escapes that resistance is likely a driver not just for the rest of the equities, yet also quite a few of the other asset classes.

EXTENDED TREND IMPLICATIONS

That is most prominent in primary government bond markets, and especially the December Bund future that has sunk down to its 139.34 critical Tolerance of the overall 140.00-139.60 top of the major late-2011to early-2012 trading range. Interesting interim support at 137.50 notwithstanding, previous general weakness from the 140.00 area has led to retests of more major supports in the 135.00 and 133.00 areas.

Similarly in the foreign exchange, the euro and pound sterling have benefited markedly from the weakness of the dollar associated with improved conditions in Europe along with the Fed quantitative easing anticipation. And yet, in spite of EUR/USD pushing up impressively above 1.2450-1.2500, it is now at the start of more major resistances in the 1.3000 area. There is also the issue of other currencies not performing quite as well against the greenback, and euro not necessarily performing that well against those other currencies in spite of that.

Love these ‘politico’-economic and heavy central bank influence markets!! And they make a clear technical perspective that much more necessary. Enjoy the ideas and as always…

Thanks for your interest.

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