Home > Uncategorized > 2012/09/04: Quick Post: Weekly Perspective now available… HUGE European focus

2012/09/04: Quick Post: Weekly Perspective now available… HUGE European focus

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Very short and sweet today, because all of the perspective is still much the same as our expectations last week that Jackson Hole was going to be more style than substance. And Mr. Bernanke certainly confirmed all of our expectations that while the Fed may still ‘do something’, it will likely be less influential in the real economy than in the risk asset psychology. His defense of the previous rounds of quantitative easing (ostensibly QE1 and QE2) was eloquent, and might have even had some merit.

Yet even many of those who believed those efforts were necessary at much lower levels in the equity markets allow that further liquidity infusions might accomplish little more than a further escalation of commodity prices. And that would not even help equities very much. And in any event the greater risk or redemption likely rests with Europe now that the specifics of any rescue effort must soon be more clearly articulated.

That is exactly the sort of focus we have concentrated upon in this week’s Summary Perspective on key influences, available through the link in the right hand column. It joins yesterday’s Weekly Report & Event Calendar.

It still gives due credit to ECB President Draghi for the masterful “do whatever is necessary” to save the euro ‘spin’ he placed upon the late-summer phase of those negotiations.

And yet…

 

 

…as well as that latest round of the European ’Kick the Can’ exercise seemed to work during the holidays, that political ‘marker’ (IOU) is coming due. And as has been the case in many previous phases, the Europeans seem highly adept at nothing quite so much as ‘snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.’

The discussion of all that as well as the typical full report and event highlights and our reasons why Thursday is the key Event Horizon this week are all included in the Summary Perspective.  And we also note that the quarterly futures expiration rollovers begin with the typically early retirement of the September Bund future on Thursday. As such, it is already important to watch the December contract against the lead contract technical levels; even if the next round of those does not occur for another week-and-a-half.

Last but not least, today’s equities rebound from the negative economic data pressure this morning is a reminder that central bank influence has created a “bad news is good news” psychology… at least for now.

All of which makes Thursday’s ECB press conference that much more critical, along with quite a few other reasons we discuss in today’s analysis.

Thanks for your interest.

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