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Archive for August, 2012

2012/08/31: Quick Post: Courtesy Brief Update: To QE or not to QE?

August 31, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Short & Sweet again on the specific market comments in this post, because today’s TrendView Brief Update is a pointed discussion of some significant points in the quantitative easing debate. As we have noted in previous posts, we feel QE is the Opiate of the Perma-Bulls. We will have more for you on that soon.

However, in the meantime it would seem that whatever Mr. Bernanke has to say today must be respected as a potential short term influence on the markets. And that is in spite of the far greater influence that will likely come from the next steps (for better or worse) in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. And that reaches a truly critical horizon into the ECB press conference and meeting between German Chancellor Merkel and Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy… both of which are coincidentally (or not) next Thursday.

 

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2012/08/30: Quick Post: Pre-Jackson Hole Fresh Tech Now Available

August 30, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Technical Projections and Select Comments are already available via the link in the right hand column. The Summary Perspective on Key Influences and Weekly Reports & Events Calendar are also already posted, and we hope you find those useful as well.

Of course, the overriding (some would say ‘overbearing’) presence of the Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole Symposium tomorrow has kept the markets mostly on hold until today (Thursday.) It seems the equities are finally started to grasp the idea that Sugar Daddy Ben might not have any more candy to dispense as early as tomorrow. “We have steps we can take if conditions deteriorate” options are really not quite the same as the immediate sugar rush.

So while the “To QE or not to QE…” deliberation leaves quite a few folks with a strong feeling “that is the question”…

 

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2012/08/29: Quick Post: Weekly Perspective available… with Beige Book next QE influence

August 29, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Very short and sweet today, because all of the perspective is still much the same as yesterday’s post. Along with that the Weekly Summary Perspective on Key Influences is available through the link in the right hand column, joining yesterday’s Weekly Report & Event Calendar.

All we can say is Europe’s latest round of ’Kick the Can’ still seems to be working very well.  And yet some reservations are turning up regarding the situation in Spain. We will have more to say on that very soon, along with quite a few other factors that are less than constructive in spite of the current hopeful central-bank psychology.

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2012/08/28: Quick Post: Back from holiday… Weekly Calendar Now Available

August 28, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Just back in today, and the Big Apple was a blast! I know a lot of Midwesterners find it a bit gritty and WAAAAAY too frenetic. Maybe it’s just because I’m a particularly high strung Midwesterner that I find its energy and attractions far outweigh the intensity and hustle. I suppose it’s a matter of taste, and that means a lot more than just the food. On balance it’s a great town.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective on Key Influences will also be available later today. All we can say is Europe’s latest round of ’Kick the Can’ still seems to be working very well.  For all we have our reservations about the extended viability of the US (and more recent European) equities rally, it is a wonder to behold. We offer our compliments to ECB President Draghi on the outstanding spin he attached to supportive comments on the euro at the end of last month in London.

As we noted last week, while clearly stating the European Central Bank will “do whatever is necessary” to save the euro, he quickly backed off at the following Thursday’s ECB press conference to make sure everyone also heard the caveat “within our mandate.” What a wonderful canard by which to flip the whole matter back to the political class regarding the nature of that ECB mandate. And by clarifying the political steps necessary to allow the ECB to act, he also left a much clearer path to potential resolution…

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2012/08/21: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar and Perspective Now Available

August 21, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column along with this week’s Summary Perspective on Key Influences. All we could say was ’Kick the Can’ seems to be working very well.  For all we have our reservations about the extended viability of the US (and now European) equities rally, it is a wonder to behold. We offer our compliments to ECB President Draghi on the outstanding spin he attached to supportive comments on the euro in London.

While clearly stating the European Central Bank will “do whatever is necessary” to save the euro, he quickly backed off at the following Thursday’s ECB press conference to make sure everyone also heard the caveat “within our mandate.” What a wonderful canard by which to flip the whole matter back to the political class regarding the nature of that ECB mandate. And by clarifying the political steps necessary to allow the ECB to act, he also left a much clearer path to potential resolution…

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2012/08/18: Quick Post: Weekend Reading on Continued Contentious Inconsistencies

August 18, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Equities seem like the Energizer Bunny of up trends right now… they just ‘keep going and going’, even if in a choppy and grinding manner some of the time. Yet, as we noted in the wake of Wednesday’s first September S&P 500 future daily Close above the 1,399-1,402 resistance, the burden of proof was on the bears to put the market back down or it was likely headed higher in the near term.

We will be very concise once again on the specific market comments in this post, because yesterday’s TrendView Brief Update  is a pointed discussion of the significant clash of forces between the equities market and other asset classes.  And a lot of the intermarket tendencies were just plain inconsistent with classical tendencies, and that became more so the case into late last week.

As we noted in our QE is the Opiate of the Perma-Bulls part 1a (part 2 to be provided soon) post a week ago Wednesday, it has been a “bad news is good news” equities market of late. And Perma-Bulls seem to feel the worse the better, at least insofar as that increases the chances for additional central bank Quantitative Easing or other forms of market intervention.

In a “rock and a hard place” psychology, that would be the ‘rock’ that underpins the market. And yet the ‘hard place’ that both investors and short-term portfolio managers find themselves in is the now almost pervasive weak economic data outside of the US. Even the stronger than expected UK Employment figures and Retail Sales this week along with US Retail Sales, Industrial Production, NAHB Housing Market Index, Michigan Sentiment, and Leading Indicators did not seem to help equities all that much in the face of weak data elsewhere.

And the other key aspect we keep a close eye on also reconfirmed those troubling global economic tendencies two weeks ago…

 

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2012/08/15: Quick Post: Courtesy Brief Update: Continued Contentious Inconsistencies

August 15, 2012 Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Short & Sweet again on the specific market comments in this post, because today’s TrendView Brief Update is a pointed discussion of the significant clash of forces in the equities market. As we noted in last Wednesday’s QE is the Opiate of the Perma-Bulls part 1a (part 2 to be provided soon), it has been a “bad news is good news” equities market of late. And Perma-Bulls seem to feel the worse the better, at least insofar as that increases the chances for additional central bank Quantitative Easing.

That would be the ‘rock’ that underpins the market. And yet the ‘hard place’ that both investors and short-term portfolio managers find themselves in is the now almost pervasive weak economic data. Even the stronger than expected UK Employment figures this morning and past couple of days’ US economic data (Retail Sales, Industrial Production, NAHB Housing Market Index) did not seem to help equities much in the face of weak data elsewhere.

And the other key aspect we keep a close eye on also reconfirmed those troubling global economic tendencies last Thursday…

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