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The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. The Technical Projections and Select Comments are already available as well via the link in the right hand column. The Summary Perspective on Key Influences will be posted later this evening, and we hope you find that useful as well.
While it was a light data day that was to lead to heavy economic releases and political and financial influences all week, it ended up being a very important news day.As such, the decision horizon in the market seems to be quite early this week. And the focus on Europe is likely to continue throughout the week now that problems are back.
Without being smug about it, this is also consistent with two things we have highlighted previous: General global economic weakening, and the risk Europe would fall behind the ‘implementation curve’ of recent announcements of success in solving its myriad sovereign debt, banking and economic problems. If anything, the situation seems to be moving backward on quite a few fronts. More on that and the general global economic situation in another post later today.
What we now have is the classic strong earnings as a temporary bullish influence, yet with the data waiting to take the market down if there is no improvement in the global economic picture fairly soon. And with the US a key factor, Friday’s first look at US Q2 GDP will be more critical than usual. So it will be an interesting week, yet with the ultimate trend decision classically only possible after Friday’s data (also including some important items out of Asia.)
And in any event that will be a major influence on the other asset classes as well.
General Market Observations
As we noted last Thursday, while we were skeptical of the September S&P 500 future rally into the 1,375 level, it was likely worth at least $20 in either direction. And we were confident the key lower 1,350-55 major range set up as far back as the heavy trading last summer was still critical. The gap below it this morning reinforces the reinstated resistance in that area.
And speaking of levels that continue to be important, the interim support in the 1,335-38 range should still be watched closely as well. Initial interim support below it is not until 1,320 (which also held to the tic two weeks ago.) While the interim 1,310 level remains interesting, the truly major decision level is still 1,297-95. Much below that the market might be ready to revisit the mid-1,200 support.
Thanks for your interest.