Home > Uncategorized > 2012/07/13: Quick Post: Courtesy ‘Market Alert’ on Equities only back up to key resistance… again

2012/07/13: Quick Post: Courtesy ‘Market Alert’ on Equities only back up to key resistance… again

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Short & Sweet again on the specific market comments in this post, because today’s TrendView Market Alert is a pointed discussion of the most critical short-term technical area being the 1,335-38 range. In other words, the (repeatedly violated) Tolerance of the September S&P 500 future key 1,350-55 resistance; which is the far more major trend decision area. And as impressive as the sustained rally appears today, once the bears were squeezed above 1,338 right after the Regular Trading Hours opening, there wasn’t much left to say from a short-term technical perspective.

Of course, that doesn’t necessarily make the equities bullish either because the 1,335-38 range is only an interim level after all. It will still take another sustained push above 1,350-55 to encourage the idea that the market is escaping to the upside. Otherwise it could all end up spilling back down from the same levels next week as occurred after Tuesday morning’s announcement of the extension of the deadline on Spanish fiscal reform. As we noted at the time, that is a bit of a longer-term move. And while it seems constructive, the markets are ultimately looking for more immediate and extensive European action on other critical items.

And both before and after that this week, there were other critical items… 


…that were far more negative. Those are either directly summarized in today’s TrendView Market Alert, or you can click through the link back to Wednesday’s TrendView Brief Update for more detail and/or just read Tuesday’s blog post with its link back to the OECD Composite Leading Indicators. That was released early Monday morning, and there is a link back as well to those for the previous month. The difference in the general tone and especially the specific outlook for relatively stronger sisters US and Japan is striking. All in all the resilience of the primary government bond markets and US Dollar Index would also seem to be less than encouraging for continued strength of the equities.

Congratulations are certainly due to JPMorgan on the earnings outperformance in light of the concerns over the recent trading irregularities, and the Chinese economy for its performance seeming a bit better than was expected. However, whether those two items are enough to carry the day next week in a manner that encourages the September S&P 500 future to sustain activity above 1,350-55 is another matter altogether. If not, then it might be (to quote Master of Malapropism Yogi Berra) “Déjà vu all over again.” We shall see.

Thanks for your interest.

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