Home > Uncategorized > 2012/05/31: Quick Post: All critical failures on weak data noted Thursday

2012/05/31: Quick Post: All critical failures on weak data noted Thursday

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Very Quick Post indeed today, as it is all consistent with previous expectations. In addition to the negative psychology out of Europe, the economic data still remains very weak on balance. And the additional news from the late week data crunch on Asia can be added to that. Possibly a bit perverse that a day where Ireland is seemingly confirming its commitment to Euro-zone membership and austerity that sentiment there is so weak as well. Yet it is the case that the mild upward revisions from the Advance figures still leave Euro-zone PMI’s significantly weaker on the month…

 

 

June S&P 500 future already below 1,297 prior to US Employment was a problem. That is its DOWNside Objective from the significant daily Head & Shoulders Top 1,367 DOWN Break which occurred on the last US Employment report on May 4th (the day after the ECB press conference ‘disconnect’ we had noted the day before http://bit.ly/K6ikQ3.) Any failure on a daily Close (and today would be a weekly Close as well) back below 1,297 would indicate a return of the more aggressive bear. At the very least a retest of the 1,260-45 low end of its trading range from the first half of last year would be in order.

Similarly, primary government bond markets are also up to next critical resistances. Suffice to say that June Bund future 146.50, June Gilt future 122.00 and June T-note future 135-16 are all key oscillator thresholds. Much above them, another two point push is possible!

Last but not least, the weakness of the Australian dollar below the AUD/USD .9700 Tolerance of its major Fibonacci and channel support in the .9800 area is not good. That DOWN Break may speak of general weakening of the global economy being reflected in this commodity currency; and especially as it regards whether Asia and China in particular are going to be able to engineer the ‘soft landing’ so many folks are hoping to see. While next support is as nearby as the major .9400 congestion from 2009-2010, the general implications for the world economy are not good.

Thanks for your interest.

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