Home > Uncategorized > 2012/05/21: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar Available

2012/05/21: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar Available

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is now available through the link in the right hand column. The focused Summary Perspective on Key Influences below it will be provided later today, as we felt it more important to get right to the Concise Market View from the end of that due to the volatility already apparent early this week.

For those of you who have not already seen it, there is a lot of emphasis again this week on Thursday. And just as was the case last week, clear focus on the extensive data will be vying with facts on the ground out of Europe. There are some other items worth noting earlier in the week, but mostly not in today’s very slow economic data day.

Yet, even as early as tomorrow morning we see China’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index, and the OECD Economic Outlook along with Euro-zone Consumer Confidence. And the US has some interesting influences cropping up as well in a speech in Hong Kong on Monetary Policy by the Fed’s Lockhart along with…

 

…the first half of this month’s most telling indication on the US property market: Existing Home Sales. US New Home Sales follows on Wednesday, which is also important due to the Bank of Japan Rate Decision and Statement (and what it has to say about Japan’s stubborn ‘deflation’ problem) along with the Bank of England May 9th and 10th meeting minutes.

Basically, quite a bit of central bank influence right into the economic data crunch on Thursday, yet with a much more limited array of data released on Friday. That said, Friday’s data does include the Chinese MNI Business Conditions Survey, German GfK Consumer Confidence, the OECD Q1 GDP Growth statistics and the University of Michigan Confidence Indicator.

And yet, based on facts on the ground out of Europe and the much heavier economic reporting day on Thursday, by Friday the trend decision may have already been made. That was the case after the ECB’s parsimonious May 3rd press conference left set a stale ‘disconnect’ in the equities psychology. That meant the equities bulls really didn’t have all that much of a chance into Friday’s US Employment report unless it was a stellar number; which it was not.

That is also based in part on the typical three-day horizon for any upbeat compromise and statements out of Europe (as we heard from the G8 this weekend) for improved sentiment before wearing off. And just as typically in the ‘macro-technical’ context, if the equities have not pushed above key resistances within 72 hours after a key European meeting, they are vulnerable to pressure once again. For further extensive background on what’s still wrong with this picture, please refer back to last Thursday’s post: Fed more likely to step in. Does it matter?

General Market Observations and EXTENDED TREND IMPLICATIONS can be summed up very succinctly on the various asset classes.

The June S&P 500 future was up $10 in overnight trade on the back of the constructive ‘macro’ factors, extending the rally during regular trading hours. And yet, the daily Close is always more important to the ‘technical’ side of the macro-technical equation. And the jury is still out. This is because the significant daily Head & Shoulders Top 1,367 DOWN Break noted previous has a 1,297 DOWNside Objective. Of course, that was overrun on both the daily and weekly Close last Friday.

Now it is going to be incumbent upon the bulls to stabilize the market back above both that 1,297 level, and the 1,310 February UP Break that was also Negated on last week’s extended selloff. DAX also failed 6,320-6,285 major support. That puts it back in a lower range. And even though interim support is as nearby as 6,050-6,000, the more major lower supports are not until the mid-5,000 area and the low-5,000 area. Another case of burden of proof on the bulls right now.

▪ And of course the early week strength in equities along with whatever transpires across time remains an important influence on other asset classes. That is especially so for the primary government bond markets, with their classical counterpoint tendency to equities clearly reinstated of late. Upside leader June Bund future has backed off from its 144.00 area oscillator resistance to slightly below its 143.70 long-term weekly chart topping line. It will still need to Close the week nicely above 144.00 in order to escape those various resistances for a possible additional two point extension of its rally.

The same goes for June Gilt future that stalled into the low end of its similar 119.00-.40 topping line and oscillator resistance. And in its way the June T-note future is a bit of a weak sister right now, never even quite making it to its equivalent 134-00 resistance.

▪ While foreign exchange had appeared to be more of a churn of late, that has now turned back into a very dynamic trend arena. And while some relationships churn along within more trend oriented activity, there have also been some dramatic swings along the way. Those include the rather sharp Japanese yen rally in such a brief time span on Thursday. Whatever the reason, the effect was dramatic. In less than two hours USD/JPY went from its most recent .8025 UP Break attempt to the low .7900 area. Even as violent as that appeared, we are still interested in seeing if it holds the significant .7850 major Wedge UP Break on any further weakness.

Also of note is the critical nature of AUD/USD .9800-.9700 support. Given the importance of the Australian dollar’s role as a commodity currency, that decision is also likely going to be a bellwether of general global economic tendencies.

▪ July Crude Oil future not only failed hefty 95.50-94.50 range congestion, it is now also below important lower support (December pullback lows) in the 93.00-92.50 range. Unless it can stabilize and claw its way back above that area soon, next significant support is not until 90.50-89.50 area.

▪ And the June Gold future finally capitulated after its previous ability to hold major 1,615-1,600 support. And that should also be fairly scary to the equities bulls, as the only time the Gold heads down this heavily with the equities is during a potential for a significant deflation scare. However, as the crisis continued last week the Gold did get a bid back, even if low-1,600 area remains resistance. Support is at last December’s 1,526 low, and not again until the lower end of last summer’s range in the 1,480-70 area. It is of note that industrial metal July Copper future remains weak below both 3.65 and 3.50.

Thanks for your interest.

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