Home > Uncategorized > 2012/03/27: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar and Perspective Now Available

2012/03/27: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar and Perspective Now Available

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The full calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. The focused comments below it will be available in the calendar section shortly after the weekly calendar is posted each week as Summary Perspective on Key Influences. We hope you find that useful as well.

It’s another critical mid-to-late week decision horizon this week again. Not to say that there are no important influences early in the week. We have already seen Mr. Bernanke’s expected reaffirmation of endless liquidity provision bolster the equities and weigh on the primary government bond markets.

And there is no small amount of additional central bank-speak during the balance of the week; most heavily concentrated into Tuesday and Thursday. That goes right along a goodly number of important central bank reports and finance ministers meetings, especially the European meetings from early Friday morning.

So while the important end of month reports clear from the listings in the calendar are going to be quite influential in their own right, the central bank and finance ministers activities may well be more important as the week progresses.

There is also quite a bit of variation in the general influences due to the end of quarter and other factors. Of course, with equities up since the beginning of the year, there is case for portfolio manager window dressing. On the other hand, more active traders might be looking to take profits to actualize the quarterly returns. While that may all be somewhat of a wash, the real test will likely come next week. That is because of the question of whether a major asset reallocation is in progress after the sharp weakness of the primary government bond markets two weeks ago.

General Market Observations

Due to some technical problems, this blog notice was delayed from yesterday’s posting of the calendar and perspective into today. However, it will come as no surprise to our regular readers that we noted again it would be fairly critical whether June S&P 500 future held yesterday morning’s gains to push above 1,400-1,407 on a daily Close. If so, next major resistance on historic congestion and oscillators are not until the 1,425-28 area, with the major 1,440 May 2008 high above that.

EXTENDED TREND IMPLICATIONS

Even though the June T-note future had pushed back modestly above the 129-00 area, it sagged back below it temporarily on yesterday’s equities strength. And even if it manages to hold up for now, more prominent resistance awaits in the 129-20/130-00 area (major gap lower from last Wednesday and heavy congestion.)

More interesting is further evolution of secular weakness in the Japanese yen. After stalling at important resistance (yen support) of late, USD/JPY held back down to important support in the 82.25-.00 area. Similarly AUD/JPY held 85.00, an important previous congestion and current up channel technical support level. And the EUR/JPY was right back down in the low 109.00 area as well prior to pushing up once again. It looks like the aggressive yen bear is intact after those tests of resistance on multiple fronts.

Thanks for your interest.

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