Home > Uncategorized > 2012/03/22: Quick Post: Technical Projections and Comments Now Available

2012/03/22: Quick Post: Technical Projections and Comments Now Available

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Current Rohr Technical Projections – Key Levels & Select Comments (as of Wednesday’s US Close) are now available through the link in the right hand column. We have summarized some of the most interesting and telling tendencies below.

It is of note that equities weakness this morning is on the back of surprisingly soft Chinese and European Advance Purchasing Managers Indices. That is because of the assertion by many that China is successfully engineering a “soft landing”.(??) As such, its index sliding further below 50.0 is quite a telling concern for the current return to a more upbeat global economic psychology.

What is also interesting is that the equities activity is obviously impacting commodities at this point, including Gold and Crude Oil. With the various overt ‘crises’ damped down at least for now (if not indeed fully addressed), the recent bid in the yellow metal has been more dependent upon the inflation potential inherent in better economic prospects.

As equities’ weakness is muting some of that anticipatory bid, we expect their near-term decision to be a significant influence back into commodities. That goes for commodity currencies as well, especially the Asia-related trend of the Australian dollar, which has now slipped back below AUD/USD 1.0500. While Crude Oil will continue to also be influenced by the situation in the Middle East, commodities generally should most likely at least loosely follow the trend of the equities.

General Market Observations

All trend tendencies remain very consistent with the views expressed in Tuesday’s (equities and govvies analysis) TrendView BRIEF UPDATE and yesterday’s (foreign exchange and commodities) TrendView BRIEF UPDATE. However weak the equities may look on this morning’s selloff, it will still be fairly critical overall whether June S&P 500 future pushes above 1,400-1,407 next resistance that was vigorously tested on Monday. If so, next major resistance on historic congestion and oscillators is not until the 1,425-28 area, with the major 1,440 May 2008 high above that. However, if it should remain weak below Tuesday’s 1,391.80 low instead, it might be signaling the start of a more extensive correction back to significant 1,375-67 resistances it pushed above last Tuesday.


Of course, whether the equities stabilize or head lower will be a major influence on govvies ability to improve above key near-term resistances. Those are particularly well-calibrated once again on the June T-note future push back to the 129-00 area, weak sister June Gilt future squeeze up to the top of the 113.00-112.50 area, and the strong sister June Bund future retesting its significant 136.93-137.20 DOWN Break and prominent congestion. Even though they all have further significant resistance at higher levels, the decision on whether to push above current resistances is obviously afoot on the June S&P future slide below Tuesday’s low.

Thanks for your interest.

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