Home > Uncategorized > 2012/02/24: Quick Post: Knock-Knock-Knockin’ on Heaven’s Door

2012/02/24: Quick Post: Knock-Knock-Knockin’ on Heaven’s Door

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

With due respect and apologies to Bob Dylan for borrowing the lyric, the equities everywhere would likely consider it ‘heavenly’ for the US laggard S&P 500 future to finally knock out the last of the resistance from last summer. And March S&P 500 future knocking on the door at 1,367 (major high from last May) is the last shoe to fall with the DJIA above 13,000 and March NASDAQ 100 future pushing through 2,600. As noted previous, if March S&P 500 future should exceed that old high by more than a few dollars for the weekly close, it is more than the next nominal $10 or $15 signal. Weekly oscillators and historic congestion point to something more on the order of the 1,400 area at a minimum.

The Asian and European economic data was also supportive this morning once again, raising a question over why the even more laggard European and UK equities are not making up more upside ground against the US today? While there is some US economic data to be released this morning, especially expositions from financial luminaries still need to be watched throughout the day. Those include Fed-speak from mid-morning into lunchtime, and more importantly whatever might come from the early phase of this weekend’s G20 meeting in Mexico City. That includes the potential for dissension over the financial allocations for the Euro-zone Debt Crisis firewall funding (i.e. EFSF-European Financial Stability Facility and ESM-European Stabilization Mechanism.)

General Market Observations and EXTENDED TREND IMPLICATIONS

Whatever the case ends up being on either harmony or acrimony, it remains very interesting that the primary government bond markets still act like there is quite a bit of flow into ‘haven’ instruments in spite of ostensible Greek Debt Crisis agreement early this week. Is it another one of those phases where the equities and govvies can push up together? Frankly, if the March S&P 500 future stages its escape well above 1,367, we would be surprised if that mutual rally continued to any degree.

US equities’ daily MACD’s that remain mildly DOWN (from last week) in spite of yesterday’s recovery, would certainly turn back UP on any significant escape. And in this case it is clear that to confirm the current MACD negative short term signal March S&P 500 future needs to post a daily Close back below the low end of the support (violated previous resistance) in the 1,355-50 range. It is most interesting that the low end of that range is pretty much exactly where it held yesterday’s low, as it is also aggressive up channel and moving average support late this week into Monday.

All of which only intensifies the decision in the equities that will likely have an influence on other asset classes as well. We refer you to yesterday’s post and the Current Rohr Technical Projections – Key Levels & Select Comments (based upon Wednesday’s US Close) for additional projections and technical comments on what are now very psychological markets in foreign exchange, energy and gold as well as this looming next critical decision in equities.

Thanks for your interest.

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