Home > Uncategorized > 2012/01/23: Quick Post: Observations and Weekly Reports & Events Calendar Now Available

2012/01/23: Quick Post: Observations and Weekly Reports & Events Calendar Now Available

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The full calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. Apologies for the delayed posting this week. We had some significant web connection failures earlier today. From last week onward we have been adding color-coding to the various reports and events to indicate the nature of the key influences. We will also be italicizing those reports and events which we add to the base table from other resources than the main table. That will assist with differentiating which bold font items are highlighted because of their importance, versus those that simply come from other sources.

This week typically sees a bit less economic data, even if some of it remains quite important. However, on many fronts this week in particular is likely to be one of the most convoluted, impactful weeks in the scope of recent trends in all asset classes. That is due to significant international influences on many fronts that overshadow things like the Tuesday’s preliminary European Purchasing Managers Indices and Euro-zone Industrial Production, Wednesday’s German IFO, and Thursday’s extensive US releases into a quieter day on Friday.

Prior to any further discussion of the balance of the calendar for this week, it is important to note that while more of our sources are listing European debt auctions, somehow they managed to come up with slightly different times for those auctions. As such, any of the times might be off by anywhere from 10 minutes to one hour. Not a major issue, yet still worth noting.

From this morning there were already many speeches and meetings, such as the IMF head Lagarde speech on Restoring Confidence and Growth. The financial luminary-speak continues right into tomorrow and all week. Tomorrow evening is President Obama’s State of the Union address, but the real fun begins with Wednesday’s opening of this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland; especially as Chancellor Merkel will give the opening address. That is followed by planned meetings and speeches, and typically disruptive ad hoc pronouncements right through the weekend. Wednesday morning is also the FOMC interest rate decision and statement, the most important of three central bank meetings this week insofar as it is followed by Chairman Bernanke’s press conference.

Along with that there are quite a few European ministerial meetings this week prior to and during Davos, releases of various central bank reports and working papers, and no small number of speeches in addition to those at the World Economic Forum. At least it’s a quieter week on the government debt auction side, even if more critical factors related to that pick up again quickly with peripheral European bond offerings and the EU Summit next week.

General Market Observations

As far as the markets are concerned, it still feels like equities are attempting to escape the important March S&P 500 future resistance in the 1,310 area (with a Tolerance to 1,315) noted in our extensive macro-technical analysis posts last Thursday and Friday. It is likely either headed for 1,340-50 or back down to 1,280 (or lower) from here.

EXTENDED TREND IMPLICATIONS

Those posts also include the important supports for the govvies that the markets slipped to this morning, such as March T-note future slipping near its 129-24 support, March Bund future being down into 137.50 area, and the March Gilt future testing 115.00-114.85. That is also very consistent with activity in foreign exchange, where the US Dollar Index is back down toward its late 2011 .7950 UP Break, which is a complement to the euro’s push to resistance at EUR/USD 1.3050-80. Please refer back to that analysis for more extensive individual market views.

Thanks for your interest.

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