Home > Uncategorized > 2012/01/09: Quick Post: Observations and Weekly Reports & Events Calendar Now Available

2012/01/09: Quick Post: Observations and Weekly Reports & Events Calendar Now Available

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The full calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This is another important data release week, yet is less crowded and critical than some of the very intense reporting in last week’s first data release week of the month. Yet, central bank influences are a strong compnent once again this week.

In addition to the continued sharp influences from any developments on the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, there are Thursday’s first official rate decision meetings of the year by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, followed of course by the monthly ECB press conference. The Fed influence from speeches and reports is very prominent again this week after a holiday hiatus. In addition to Wednesday afternoon’s Beige Book release there are bunched groups of speeches Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday, and that’s along with serial government bond auctions from Tuesday right through the end of the week.



The economic data has already begun as last week: mixed to strong, and it seems especially important the German Trade Balance was better than expected. Other key focal points are Tuesday’s Bank of Portugal Economic Bulletin and US NFIB Small Business Optimism, Wednesday’s Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence and German Real GDP Growth, Thursday’s Euro-Zone Industrial Production and US Advance Retail Sales, followed by Friday’s Chinese Real GDP and Retail Sales as well as University of Michigan Confidence.

General Market Observations

As noted in last Friday’s TrendView MARKET ALERT, it still feels like an underwhelming equities response to the much better-than-expected US Employment report. March S&P 500 future already above its 1,270 resistance from the top of last week failed to push through the key resistance Tolerance at the late October lead contract 1,280.90 high post weekly Close. Much above that a push to the 1,310 area is possible. On the other hand, it also could not Close back below important near-term support at the 1,264 previous late year high of the rally. And so the battle there continues along those lines throughout this week.


And we still believe that will have an impact on the other asset classes, which have so far not really confirmed the idea that equities will continue strong from the very upbeat start of the year last Monday. March T-note future held very well, with only the most limited sort of temporary slippage back below its mid 130-00 support, with more major support waiting in the upper 129-00 area. The same can be said for other long-dated government bond markets.

Similarly in foreign exchange, the US Dollar Index held very well early last week right into its late year .7950 UP Break, which is the complement to euro failing to push above resistance at EUR/USD 1.3050-80, and ultimately knocking out its 1.2860 support that it had held previous in quiet holiday trade.

The energy market was temporarily up through the top end of recent February Crude Oil future 102.00-103.39 resistance at the beginning of last week as well. However, it must be allowed that is somewhat more of a subset of Middle East concerns rather than a purely economic indication.

February Gold future was also up last week, likely on the back of those same Middle Eastern concerns. Yet it barely squeezed up to the top of its very significant resistance from its previous major channel DOWN Break and weekly MA-41 in the 1,615-30 range. Unless it can push above that soon, a retest of at least significant gaps in the mid-1,500 area is likely

Thanks for your interest.

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