Home > Uncategorized > 2012/01/05: Quick Post: Technical Projections and Comments Now Available

2012/01/05: Quick Post: Technical Projections and Comments Now Available

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Current Rohr Technical Projections – Key Levels & Select Comments (as of Wednesday’s US Close) are now available through the link in the right hand column. We have summarized some of the most interesting and telling tendencies below.

All of the background on the trend swings and fundamental perspective are the same as in yesterday’s Quick Post: Does This Really Get the Fed More Cred?! The most telling factor right now is whether March S&P 500 future slips below the low end of the 1,270-64 range after tomorrow’s US Employment report, or decides to take out the 1,280.90 high post weekly Close from back on October 28th.

That is because much out of that range in either direction the market is likely ready to push another 30 points. Regardless of the fact that the government bond market has managed to once again ignore the strength of equities in the near-term, that sort of significant decision in the equities will have an impact there as well.

While many of the asset classes are merely churning around key levels early this week (February Crude Oil future 103.00 area, February Gold future 1,615-30 key resistance range), there is little doubt that the euro is out on a failure below the EUR/USD 1.2860 January 2011 low (which was also the low for the year.) And yet, the US Dollar Index remains well short of its key resistance at the .8131-44 December 2009- January 2010 highs. This is likely due to two factors.

The first is that the general improvement in the economic data from extreme weakness late last year has bolstered the commodity currencies, and in turn that has restrained the bid in the US dollar. However, that just reinforces the degree to which the second (likely more prominent) factor of whether or not the overall bullish sense in the equities is going to be maintained into the end of this week is critical to all of the currencies and other asset classes. Which is true for government bonds as well, due to their ability to maintain a firm bid so far in spite of recent equities strength; and that might mean the March T-note finally fails the 129-24 support it has not even been able to test on recent selloffs if the March S&P 500 future surges above 1,300.

Thanks for your interest.

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